$U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$ Recently, I often see comments and News of individual stocks saying, "Because interest rates are trending higher, it's unlikely to exceed 5%," but in 2006, before the Lehman shock when regulatory relaxation was progressing, there was a good economy where the 30-year bond yield exceeded 5.2% with the policy interest rate at 4.5, and inflationary conditions. Although the background is different, I think it's rare to have such inflationary factors aligning before the start of policy actions like the expected tariffs, tax cuts, regulatory relaxations, and fiscal spending for campaign promises in 2025.I don't know if the policies will be implemented as stated, but I believe we should discard the notion of not exceeding 5% and focus on considering 2025.

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ I think there will still be more selling and fund profit-taking before the end of the year, but what do you think?Please let me know how to pronounce NAS enthusiasts. Thank you so much!

$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares ETF (TMV.US)$ News of individual stocks: Trump's budget is insufficient until March, news of the demand for the abolition of the debt ceiling. The reason the stock and bond sell-off in November was halted was due to Trump's financial health improvements through personnel changes, announcing hawkish personnel who indicated a cautious approach to financial intervention in the market. However, there is a demand to override that and mobilize even in the worst financial situation. This statement immediately shifted the trend to Trump taking action on fiscal spending beyond regular Treasury bond issuances! This will definitely cause bond prices to fall and interest rates to rise. If Trump's inflation policy indicators start to appear, I predict that the latter half of the year will see the end of rate cuts and concerns about rate hikes. I am seriously considering investing.Entering the specifics of tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration exclusion is the BEST Inc before taking office. Even with a strong dollar, the current high dollar is not a problem. Until salaries catch up with inflation caused by excessive easing and tariffs and news begins to mention inflationary recession, it is sufficient to limit for now! As soon as you start talking about it, it's a rule of 3 bulls and 3 bears to immediately exit and secure profits.There are great opportunities, but I wonder if everyone is still bullish.Why...

$U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$ Although interest rates will be lowered next week, if the Trump administration takes office next year, there is no reason for prices and labor costs not to increase due to tariffs, tax cuts, and the expulsion of illegal immigrants. Depending on the timing of the imposition of tariffs, inflation is expected to rise before summer, which should definitely show up in the indicators. If that's the case, there may be about two chances of lowering interest rates by June, ending with about two out of every two meetings. The economy is expected to be firm in the first year with each policy, so the interest rate spread between short-term and long-term bonds can be expected to remain relatively close without significant deviation, so if the short-term bond is at a policy interest rate of 3.75, the two-year term is likely to be around that area or slightly higher, and long-term bonds are plus 0.4 or even more, so it may be difficult to go below 4.0. Recently, bonds were being bought due to unclear policy effects and fiscal hawkish personnel, but in reality fiscal spending is being implemented, leading to a stock market rally with policy clarification, and if inflation indicators come out early, long-term interest rates are likely to rise after all. Inflation control is left to the Federal Reserve, and since only officials who tend to exacerbate inflation are being chosen, interest rates might remain high until a severe inflation-driven economic recession. Current interest rates may seem high, but around 2007 before the Lehman Shock, with a policy interest rate of 3.5, 30-year bonds were close to 5.2%, so it doesn't necessarily have to be like that.

$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ It is often observed that even if interest rates fall around the time of Trump's election, the phenomenon of the dollar being bought may become more prominent next year. It should not be the case that the dollar remains strong while the supply is abundant, but as the inauguration approaches, inflation reignition next year may prompt an early adjustment for rising interest rates.There may be opposite phenomena next year, so it's uncertain about the exchange rates. The theoretical value based on realistic interest rate differentials is around 120 yen, but the interest rate differential may no longer be the determining factor for exchange rates.At the very least, with four interest rate differentials still existing, I don't think the yen will easily appreciate with this rate cut.

$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
JOLTS exceeded expectations! Wake up!
If the minimum wage is raised and the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December, small and medium-sized enterprises will struggle. Stay calm.

$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$
Support near Wednesday's high.
Current value of the boundary line we discussed yesterday.
Exciting! If I'm awake, I'll add analysis comments!

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Well, various things happened, and I've been away from the market since entering this week. Even regarding economic indicators, I haven't been paying attention. Now that I've quickly looked at the economic indicators, what I felt was... weak. With interest rates rising, it seems natural, but the residence sector is uniformly weak. The decline in interest rates since the beginning of this week, in addition to changes in the Treasury Secretary, makes me think that the market was reacting to these weak residence indicators. I believe the week will end quietly due to Thanksgiving from this point.
Well, of course, the real issues will come next week. ISM, JOLTS, and employment statistics. I think that once the special factor of the presidential election is over, we will start to see the naked economic situation.