Allen W
reacted to
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
The previous 240 stop loss cut off half of the position
Make up part of it today at 221. Hope to wait until it bounces back to 230. If Tesla doesn't fight anymore, the Big Seven will become the Big Six
Google has been good for the past two days and continues to have an official website $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$
TLT plans to increase its position by 95. Yesterday it just fell below 96 and was pulled up; it still hasn't been added. But I think there will still be a chance. Regardless of non-agricultural, employment, or unemployment benefit data, there is no support for interest rate cuts in March. The only thing that supported the March interest rate cut was political pressure. If expectations for interest rate cuts in March fall short, it is very likely that TLT will return to 93-95.
Currently, TLT's 200-day average is still declining, and there is no downside risk.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
The previous 240 stop loss cut off half of the position
Make up part of it today at 221. Hope to wait until it bounces back to 230. If Tesla doesn't fight anymore, the Big Seven will become the Big Six
Google has been good for the past two days and continues to have an official website $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$
TLT plans to increase its position by 95. Yesterday it just fell below 96 and was pulled up; it still hasn't been added. But I think there will still be a chance. Regardless of non-agricultural, employment, or unemployment benefit data, there is no support for interest rate cuts in March. The only thing that supported the March interest rate cut was political pressure. If expectations for interest rate cuts in March fall short, it is very likely that TLT will return to 93-95.
Currently, TLT's 200-day average is still declining, and there is no downside risk.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Translated
13
3
Allen W
liked
The stock market rose in this wave, and QQQ was close to an all-time high. I don't have a major stake in technology stocks, so I think I'm out of trouble. But it doesn't matter; the stocks I hold have also risen quite well, including:
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$
$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$
$FactSet Research Systems (FDS.US)$
$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$
$The Travelers Companies (TRV.US)$
With the exception of TRV above, I reduced my positions today.
Currently, $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ It's also pretty cheap, and I keep holding it.
With the current monetary policy and economic environment, everyone understands whether QQQ can last at such a high level. So, even as a band, I'm unwilling to participate in this kind of pursuit that is seriously detached from fundamentals.
Finally, let's talk about TLT. My bond account is back in the early 87's, and I've bought a lot many times $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ It has now clearly come out of the bottom. I was blocked at the gap today. If it falls back, I may continue to increase my position.
It's been quite busy recently, so there haven't been many updates. I actually didn't do anything, so I reduced my position until today. In addition to clearing, I have also cleared my bottom position in technology stocks. Look what's wrong in the account...
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$
$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$
$FactSet Research Systems (FDS.US)$
$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$
$The Travelers Companies (TRV.US)$
With the exception of TRV above, I reduced my positions today.
Currently, $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ It's also pretty cheap, and I keep holding it.
With the current monetary policy and economic environment, everyone understands whether QQQ can last at such a high level. So, even as a band, I'm unwilling to participate in this kind of pursuit that is seriously detached from fundamentals.
Finally, let's talk about TLT. My bond account is back in the early 87's, and I've bought a lot many times $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ It has now clearly come out of the bottom. I was blocked at the gap today. If it falls back, I may continue to increase my position.
It's been quite busy recently, so there haven't been many updates. I actually didn't do anything, so I reduced my position until today. In addition to clearing, I have also cleared my bottom position in technology stocks. Look what's wrong in the account...
Translated
7
Allen W
liked
$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares ETF (YANG.US)$ Yesterday's recommendations all went up, and today's pre-market prices also went up. $ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD.US)$ Um, I always keep going when I see a drop, $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ Now it is also possible to open a position at a low level, $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$ Positions can now be filled.
Translated
3
Allen W
liked
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
After listening to the press conference, I just thought it was a cliché. There are no hawks, and I didn't expect the market to interpret it as a big dove.
Interest rates were raised by 75 basis points just in September, which was too strong. If you wait and see this time, you would expect, ah, somewhere... However, the market is always right, just follow the trend.
I checked the bottom of last week, and I basically sold everything without waiting for the interest rate meeting because I don't want to experience this kind of uncertainty. So if you miss it, you've probably missed it. Since it went up today, I sold a little more. Mainly because SPY has now risen to the upper end of the downward channel. This is a bit beyond expectations; I think it will only rebound to around 4200-4250.
Another reason for the sale is that it will be a big African farmer in the morning. Since this year, large and small non-farmers have basically gone against each other every time, and Friday is probably no exception. However, there is no point in predicting; plans must be made:
If the number of employed people exceeds expectations, it may cause the stock price to fall. However, the economy is still strong; it is an opportunity to buy high-quality stocks on dips. Will keep an eye on TLT, but won't necessarily buy it.
If it basically meets expectations, this is the hardest to operate. There is a possibility that the stock market will continue to rebound, and it will not be fun to chase higher. I will wait and see if SPY will rebound more than the previous high. As long as S&P rises by another 2% and the band's high exceeds the previous high, this wave of bear market structure will be destroyed. It probably means the end of the three-month downward cycle.
If it falls far short of expectations, then the economy is estimated to go downhill, so I will buy TLT $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
...
After listening to the press conference, I just thought it was a cliché. There are no hawks, and I didn't expect the market to interpret it as a big dove.
Interest rates were raised by 75 basis points just in September, which was too strong. If you wait and see this time, you would expect, ah, somewhere... However, the market is always right, just follow the trend.
I checked the bottom of last week, and I basically sold everything without waiting for the interest rate meeting because I don't want to experience this kind of uncertainty. So if you miss it, you've probably missed it. Since it went up today, I sold a little more. Mainly because SPY has now risen to the upper end of the downward channel. This is a bit beyond expectations; I think it will only rebound to around 4200-4250.
Another reason for the sale is that it will be a big African farmer in the morning. Since this year, large and small non-farmers have basically gone against each other every time, and Friday is probably no exception. However, there is no point in predicting; plans must be made:
If the number of employed people exceeds expectations, it may cause the stock price to fall. However, the economy is still strong; it is an opportunity to buy high-quality stocks on dips. Will keep an eye on TLT, but won't necessarily buy it.
If it basically meets expectations, this is the hardest to operate. There is a possibility that the stock market will continue to rebound, and it will not be fun to chase higher. I will wait and see if SPY will rebound more than the previous high. As long as S&P rises by another 2% and the band's high exceeds the previous high, this wave of bear market structure will be destroyed. It probably means the end of the three-month downward cycle.
If it falls far short of expectations, then the economy is estimated to go downhill, so I will buy TLT $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
...
Translated
12
3
Allen W
liked
RECAP
Indexes Rebounded Today, Despite Individual Stock Drops
U.S. stocks saw sharp gains Monday, with indexes bouncing after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell into corrections last week as investors looked ahead to a Federal Reserve decision, jobs data, earnings reports, and other potential market-moving events.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ rose 511 points, or 1.58%, the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ rose 49 poi...
Indexes Rebounded Today, Despite Individual Stock Drops
U.S. stocks saw sharp gains Monday, with indexes bouncing after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell into corrections last week as investors looked ahead to a Federal Reserve decision, jobs data, earnings reports, and other potential market-moving events.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ rose 511 points, or 1.58%, the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ rose 49 poi...
16
3
Allen W
liked
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Recently, tlt has fallen to its bottom, with a marked increase in trading volume.
Some people say that retail investors are collectively scavenging the bottom, but there has been a turnover of around 45 billion dollars for many days. I really don't think retail investors have this ability. For the most part, it's still a game between institutions.
This sharp increase in bottom volume is usually a sign of a shuffle that the market is about to change. The probability is a rebound; the small probability is that it will continue to plummet. To be honest, if it continues to plummet, then long-term interest rates will rush to 5.5%-6% (corresponding to TLT falling to 70-80). If that were to happen, how many losses would banks have to lose, and how many more would they go bankrupt? I'm afraid Grandpa Biden and Grandma Yellen will run over and punch Powell in the butt. Interest rates on long-term bonds have almost soared to 5% in one go, so it's time to take a breather. I don't think it's likely that interest rates will continue to soar, at least in the short term. If you want to keep going fast, you'll also need to take a few months off.
Therefore, I look at the bottom rebound, referring to the November-December trend of last year. However, this does not mean a reversal. It may rise to 95-100, and continue to fall, which is also inaccurate.
At this time, I don't think it's reasonable to cut meat, I'm too panicked, unless there is a better investment target and the position is changed.
As to whether you want to buy it or not, it's up to you to make a personal choice. Of all my current bond investments, the ratio of length to length is 3 to 7. There is room to increase and decrease positions. The average cost of TTL is about 92. TLT stud, and even bought it...
Recently, tlt has fallen to its bottom, with a marked increase in trading volume.
Some people say that retail investors are collectively scavenging the bottom, but there has been a turnover of around 45 billion dollars for many days. I really don't think retail investors have this ability. For the most part, it's still a game between institutions.
This sharp increase in bottom volume is usually a sign of a shuffle that the market is about to change. The probability is a rebound; the small probability is that it will continue to plummet. To be honest, if it continues to plummet, then long-term interest rates will rush to 5.5%-6% (corresponding to TLT falling to 70-80). If that were to happen, how many losses would banks have to lose, and how many more would they go bankrupt? I'm afraid Grandpa Biden and Grandma Yellen will run over and punch Powell in the butt. Interest rates on long-term bonds have almost soared to 5% in one go, so it's time to take a breather. I don't think it's likely that interest rates will continue to soar, at least in the short term. If you want to keep going fast, you'll also need to take a few months off.
Therefore, I look at the bottom rebound, referring to the November-December trend of last year. However, this does not mean a reversal. It may rise to 95-100, and continue to fall, which is also inaccurate.
At this time, I don't think it's reasonable to cut meat, I'm too panicked, unless there is a better investment target and the position is changed.
As to whether you want to buy it or not, it's up to you to make a personal choice. Of all my current bond investments, the ratio of length to length is 3 to 7. There is room to increase and decrease positions. The average cost of TTL is about 92. TLT stud, and even bought it...
Translated
9
2