$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (TLTW.US)$ $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
The most important topic now is whether there will be an interest rate cut this year. If there is no rate cut, will TLT actually incur losses?
To discuss this topic, we must compare with similar dividend yields. The liquidity of the 20-year dividend yield is low, so I will directly compare with the 30-year yield. Also, the composition of TLT will change over time, so we can only compare with the recent years.
2022/10/24
US30Y 4.425
TLT 87.269 (plus historical dividend price of 91.85)
TLTW 24.70
TMF 59.236
2023/8/21
US30Y 4.474
TLT 89.894 (including historical dividend price 92.23)
TLTW 26.199
TMF 54.366
2024/4/4
US30Y 4.478
TLT 92.68
TLTW 26.09
TMF 51.54
So if you're in 2022/1...

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