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$Citigroup (C.US)$ Alot of the banks have been in strong uptrends (even wells fargo somehow)
Finnanicals are pretty strong, 5 p/e, tons of cash, and obviously benefit from rate hikes
Yet its trading at its 52 week low today is there something im missing?
Finnanicals are pretty strong, 5 p/e, tons of cash, and obviously benefit from rate hikes
Yet its trading at its 52 week low today is there something im missing?
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In December, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision boots landed, investors began to focus on the Omicron mutation virus.
But Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, believes the market is unprepared for a change in Fed policy.
The Fed may be beginning the long process of exiting its easy money policies, on which markets have long grown accustomed to relying.
While most major U.S. stock indexes remain near or at record highs, the sector rotation shows that the market has been considering such a shift by the Fed for months.
Shortly after the Jackson Hole meeting in late August, Chairman Powell first suggested tapering asset purchases before the end of the year, and he formally confirmed this message at the Fed's September meeting.
As Wilson notes, this fact has not been forgotten by the market over the past month, as investors have rotated out of the most speculative assets at a historic pace.
The question now, strategists at Morgan Stanley say, is "whether the Fed's policy shift is fully priced in, what areas remain vulnerable and where can investors find positive returns?"
Mr. Wilson has been watching valuations this year, and the most expensive stocks have faltered since the first quarter.
The strategist said the revaluation of U.S. stocks is now based on the equity risk premium (ERP) channel, not interest rates, because using current nominal or real interest rates to translate future cash flows could be a big mistake given the pace of inflation and the Fed's changing response function.
On the upside side, Mr. Wilson has been supporting value stocks since mid-March. In Morgan Stanley's annual outlook, analysts advised investors to focus more on large-cap defensive sectors rather than growth sectors.
The recommendation is based on the view that "the Fed and other central banks will begin to accelerate the exit of accommodative policies, which is bound to impact markets if not the economy."
Needless to say, growth stocks will be more vulnerable to this retrenchment than defensive stocks, given their much higher valuations.
Morgan Stanley strategists favor defensive sectors, arguing that policy tightening and the coming slowdown in economic growth could be worse than most expect.
The bank's two overweight sectors -- healthcare and real estate investment trusts -- have been doing well, and Morgan Stanley continues to be bullish on these two areas.
Morgan Stanley strategists also worry that the economy will slow more than most expect. While Omicron is part of the market's concern in the short term, Mr Wilson is more focused on the risk of a pick-up in supply, which could be compounded by waning consumption.
Consumer confidence remains at recessionary levels, largely due to higher inflation, which is expected to start showing up in spending in the first quarter of next year.
Mr Wilson concludes:
"This is the beginning of the end of financial repression; while a complete exit, as in the 1940s, is several years away, we believe the equity market will start discounting earlier, via the equity risk premium, which is better for value stocks than growth stocks."
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ $Citigroup (C.US)$
But Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, believes the market is unprepared for a change in Fed policy.
The Fed may be beginning the long process of exiting its easy money policies, on which markets have long grown accustomed to relying.
While most major U.S. stock indexes remain near or at record highs, the sector rotation shows that the market has been considering such a shift by the Fed for months.
Shortly after the Jackson Hole meeting in late August, Chairman Powell first suggested tapering asset purchases before the end of the year, and he formally confirmed this message at the Fed's September meeting.
As Wilson notes, this fact has not been forgotten by the market over the past month, as investors have rotated out of the most speculative assets at a historic pace.
The question now, strategists at Morgan Stanley say, is "whether the Fed's policy shift is fully priced in, what areas remain vulnerable and where can investors find positive returns?"
Mr. Wilson has been watching valuations this year, and the most expensive stocks have faltered since the first quarter.
The strategist said the revaluation of U.S. stocks is now based on the equity risk premium (ERP) channel, not interest rates, because using current nominal or real interest rates to translate future cash flows could be a big mistake given the pace of inflation and the Fed's changing response function.
On the upside side, Mr. Wilson has been supporting value stocks since mid-March. In Morgan Stanley's annual outlook, analysts advised investors to focus more on large-cap defensive sectors rather than growth sectors.
The recommendation is based on the view that "the Fed and other central banks will begin to accelerate the exit of accommodative policies, which is bound to impact markets if not the economy."
Needless to say, growth stocks will be more vulnerable to this retrenchment than defensive stocks, given their much higher valuations.
Morgan Stanley strategists favor defensive sectors, arguing that policy tightening and the coming slowdown in economic growth could be worse than most expect.
The bank's two overweight sectors -- healthcare and real estate investment trusts -- have been doing well, and Morgan Stanley continues to be bullish on these two areas.
Morgan Stanley strategists also worry that the economy will slow more than most expect. While Omicron is part of the market's concern in the short term, Mr Wilson is more focused on the risk of a pick-up in supply, which could be compounded by waning consumption.
Consumer confidence remains at recessionary levels, largely due to higher inflation, which is expected to start showing up in spending in the first quarter of next year.
Mr Wilson concludes:
"This is the beginning of the end of financial repression; while a complete exit, as in the 1940s, is several years away, we believe the equity market will start discounting earlier, via the equity risk premium, which is better for value stocks than growth stocks."
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ $Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ $Citigroup (C.US)$
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$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Let’s goooo!🚀 NIO day soon! Lots of good news out there for NIO!👏🏻
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$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ 43.5 today ?
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In January when $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ was trading at around $800, Social Capital founder and CEO Chamath Palihapitiya said that $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ could double or even triple.
BUT!! He revealed yesterday that he has sold all his Tesla stocks during the past year. Although he said it again that he's still bullish on Tesla's future, I no longer believe him. If he really is positive about Tesla, why would he rush to cash out?
What about you? Do you think he's trying to fool us or do you think he's telling the truth? Why?
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BUT!! He revealed yesterday that he has sold all his Tesla stocks during the past year. Although he said it again that he's still bullish on Tesla's future, I no longer believe him. If he really is positive about Tesla, why would he rush to cash out?
What about you? Do you think he's trying to fool us or do you think he's telling the truth? Why?
Rewards calling! Comment to win rewards!
Moomoo news team and I hold the event together for a month! I will post discussions every day and Moomoo news team will support the event with reward points! We will pick the top 2 'liked' and top 3 'insightful' comments every weekday& top 10 'liked' and top 10 'insightful' comments every weekend to be the winners. For more details, click here.
Follow me to join the latest discussion!
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$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ $GameStop (GME.US)$ $Clover Health (CLOV.US)$ $BlackBerry (BB.US)$ $Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.US)$
You found me! Today's password: "Mundo"
You found me! Today's password: "Mundo"
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$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ Dropping.... Dropping...
Translated
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$Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US)$ why isn’t it moving up?
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$Virgin Galactic (SPCE.US)$ what happened? why suspended?
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