AvocadoWasabi
liked
Summary/one-word comment
・A crash occurred mainly in Japanese stocks,The decline in the Nikkei Stock Average is historicThat was it.
The results of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index were strong, counteracting the ingredients of the US recession,
It was a factor in which panic selling subsided.
The current crash was triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, but a combination of factors overlapped.
・The market was relieved by the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor's remarks, and stock prices progressed.
The rewind of the circular carry position was a factor of shockIt is said in the market.
・An earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or less occurred in Miyazaki, and the Meteorological Agency announced “Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information”
There are concerns about the impact on the market.
The Nankai Trough earthquake cannot be ignored as a major riskIt's a factor.
・On a weekly basis, although a crash occurred on Monday, the value has returned.
With the exception of Ethereum,Fluctuations are within a reasonable range。
・It was a test for investors who started a new NISA this year.
Isn't it time for any investor or trader to review their own risk management?
Notable price movements and special notes
-2024/08/05 (Mon)
Nikkei Stock Average: 31,458.42 Compared to the previous day: -4,451.28 ...
・A crash occurred mainly in Japanese stocks,The decline in the Nikkei Stock Average is historicThat was it.
The results of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index were strong, counteracting the ingredients of the US recession,
It was a factor in which panic selling subsided.
The current crash was triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, but a combination of factors overlapped.
・The market was relieved by the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor's remarks, and stock prices progressed.
The rewind of the circular carry position was a factor of shockIt is said in the market.
・An earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 or less occurred in Miyazaki, and the Meteorological Agency announced “Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information”
There are concerns about the impact on the market.
The Nankai Trough earthquake cannot be ignored as a major riskIt's a factor.
・On a weekly basis, although a crash occurred on Monday, the value has returned.
With the exception of Ethereum,Fluctuations are within a reasonable range。
・It was a test for investors who started a new NISA this year.
Isn't it time for any investor or trader to review their own risk management?
Notable price movements and special notes
-2024/08/05 (Mon)
Nikkei Stock Average: 31,458.42 Compared to the previous day: -4,451.28 ...
Translated
2
1
I usually post news summaries, and I didn't express my personal opinions very much.
I would like to briefly post my thoughts on the crash.
I myself am a part-time worker, and I wasn't able to check the Zaraba crash while I was at work.
Fortunately, I didn't have a stock position, so I was able to stay calm.
What I think is different from previous crashes
Rather than the crash itself being the kind of thing that causes major damage to the real economy,
Rather, it seems that central bank policies have not changed and are having a big impact.
The crash is certainly a revelation, but not many people are enjoying it.
If you see big profits from short-term trading and get into the iron field with “myself too,” it is inevitable that you will get burned.
The question of whether index investors can continue investing even if this happens is
It's a very important litmus test.
(Even if Orkan and S&P 500 haven't fallen as much as Japanese stocks, their assets should have decreased due to the appreciation of the yen)
In particular, the state of aiming for an annual interest rate of 8% with 100% portfolio stocks is extremely unstable,
You may be tempted to learn it as an experience rather than logic.
I was investing, being knocked in over and over, then I forgot...
I would like to briefly post my thoughts on the crash.
I myself am a part-time worker, and I wasn't able to check the Zaraba crash while I was at work.
Fortunately, I didn't have a stock position, so I was able to stay calm.
What I think is different from previous crashes
Rather than the crash itself being the kind of thing that causes major damage to the real economy,
Rather, it seems that central bank policies have not changed and are having a big impact.
The crash is certainly a revelation, but not many people are enjoying it.
If you see big profits from short-term trading and get into the iron field with “myself too,” it is inevitable that you will get burned.
The question of whether index investors can continue investing even if this happens is
It's a very important litmus test.
(Even if Orkan and S&P 500 haven't fallen as much as Japanese stocks, their assets should have decreased due to the appreciation of the yen)
In particular, the state of aiming for an annual interest rate of 8% with 100% portfolio stocks is extremely unstable,
You may be tempted to learn it as an experience rather than logic.
I was investing, being knocked in over and over, then I forgot...
Translated
18
1
Summary/one-word comment
・Due to Mr. Harris's catch-up, changes have occurred in market conditions where the election of Mr. Trump as president is certain is certain.
・McDonald's has not had such good financial results, but it has been bought regardless of stock depreciation since August.
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$
・Key decisions of the Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
Short-term interest rate (unsecured call O/N) raised from the conventional 0-0.1% to around 0.25%
Decrease in government bond purchases. As a general rule, the amount is reduced by about 400 billion yen every quarter from around 5.7 trillion yen. The amount was reduced to around 2.9 trillion yen in January '26
Although it is in an accommodative state, interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening have led to overseas investors selling Japanese stocks.
・FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged and strengthen consensus on September interest rate cuts
・US interest rates move according to the results of the three indicators of employment statistics and the number of unemployment insurance claims and the ISM Manufacturing Economy Index
・Although Commander Hamas was murdered, crude oil has not remained so unstable. Rather, it is declining due to the US economy.
・The Nikkei Average has declined by more than 2000 yen since Black Monday.
・At first, Japanese stocks were strong...
・Due to Mr. Harris's catch-up, changes have occurred in market conditions where the election of Mr. Trump as president is certain is certain.
・McDonald's has not had such good financial results, but it has been bought regardless of stock depreciation since August.
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$
・Key decisions of the Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
Short-term interest rate (unsecured call O/N) raised from the conventional 0-0.1% to around 0.25%
Decrease in government bond purchases. As a general rule, the amount is reduced by about 400 billion yen every quarter from around 5.7 trillion yen. The amount was reduced to around 2.9 trillion yen in January '26
Although it is in an accommodative state, interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening have led to overseas investors selling Japanese stocks.
・FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged and strengthen consensus on September interest rate cuts
・US interest rates move according to the results of the three indicators of employment statistics and the number of unemployment insurance claims and the ISM Manufacturing Economy Index
・Although Commander Hamas was murdered, crude oil has not remained so unstable. Rather, it is declining due to the US economy.
・The Nikkei Average has declined by more than 2000 yen since Black Monday.
・At first, Japanese stocks were strong...
Translated
5
AvocadoWasabi
reacted to
It was a surprise decline wasn't it
The movement of falling interest rates towards a weaker dollar![]()
The American economy has been falling steadily![]()
The movement of falling interest rates towards a weaker dollar
The American economy has been falling steadily
Translated
4
Summary of market conditions for 1 month
・Nikkei average over 0.04 million yen → over 42000 yen, highest value in history → full return
・There is a possibility that Mr. Trump's first trial will slip after the presidential election
・Mr. Biden withdraws
・Attempted assassination of Mr. Trump → presidential election certainty → catching up with Mr. Harris
・England wins big with Labor Party leader Sturmer as prime minister
・Central Bank of New Zealand leaves policy interest rate unchanged (5.5%)
・ECB interest rate unchanged (4.25%)
・Bank of Canada interest rate cut (4.75 → 4.5%)
・Bank of Japan interest rate increase (0.25%), reduction in government bond purchases
・Fed interest rate unchanged (5.25-5.5%)
・After the French House of Representatives final vote, a complicated political situation of three steps
・Infrastructure fund crash
・Large-scale Windows bug due to CrowdStrike security software
・Continued decline centered on US semiconductor stocks
・Low metal resources due to concerns about Chinese demand
・Tesla overtime -7.77%
MONTH OF PERFORMANCE
・The Nikkei Average is about 1% less than the price one month ago (continued to decline in August)
・SOXX -4.56% in 1 month
・USDJPY -6.78%
・US small-cap stocks are strong
:Nikkei 225 Index $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
...
・Nikkei average over 0.04 million yen → over 42000 yen, highest value in history → full return
・There is a possibility that Mr. Trump's first trial will slip after the presidential election
・Mr. Biden withdraws
・Attempted assassination of Mr. Trump → presidential election certainty → catching up with Mr. Harris
・England wins big with Labor Party leader Sturmer as prime minister
・Central Bank of New Zealand leaves policy interest rate unchanged (5.5%)
・ECB interest rate unchanged (4.25%)
・Bank of Canada interest rate cut (4.75 → 4.5%)
・Bank of Japan interest rate increase (0.25%), reduction in government bond purchases
・Fed interest rate unchanged (5.25-5.5%)
・After the French House of Representatives final vote, a complicated political situation of three steps
・Infrastructure fund crash
・Large-scale Windows bug due to CrowdStrike security software
・Continued decline centered on US semiconductor stocks
・Low metal resources due to concerns about Chinese demand
・Tesla overtime -7.77%
MONTH OF PERFORMANCE
・The Nikkei Average is about 1% less than the price one month ago (continued to decline in August)
・SOXX -4.56% in 1 month
・USDJPY -6.78%
・US small-cap stocks are strong
:Nikkei 225 Index $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
...
Translated
9
comments
・Cloud Strike stocks due to Windows failure remain plummeting.
・Fundamentals have changed due to market conditions where Trump is certain, and the value of each asset has moved drastically this week.
・There are also sudden references by politicians to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike at the end of the month is drawing attention.
Due to these market conditions, the yen appreciated in earnest. In 1 month, the dollar and yen fell close to 10 yen from their high price.
・The decline in metals is conspicuous due to concerns about demand in China.
・PCE deflator results are almost in line with consensus, but they were slightly stronger compared to the previous year. The incorporation of interest rate futures has also not changed much. However, real interest rates remained high at around 2%, and the impact of strong tightening on the US economy continues.
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$
News
Mr. Harris intends to win the Democratic presidential nomination - Mr. Biden withdraws from the election
Next week's Bank of Japan meeting, additional interest rate hike decisions will be complicated due to weak private consumption - stakeholders...
・Cloud Strike stocks due to Windows failure remain plummeting.
・Fundamentals have changed due to market conditions where Trump is certain, and the value of each asset has moved drastically this week.
・There are also sudden references by politicians to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike at the end of the month is drawing attention.
Due to these market conditions, the yen appreciated in earnest. In 1 month, the dollar and yen fell close to 10 yen from their high price.
・The decline in metals is conspicuous due to concerns about demand in China.
・PCE deflator results are almost in line with consensus, but they were slightly stronger compared to the previous year. The incorporation of interest rate futures has also not changed much. However, real interest rates remained high at around 2%, and the impact of strong tightening on the US economy continues.
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)$
News
Mr. Harris intends to win the Democratic presidential nomination - Mr. Biden withdraws from the election
Next week's Bank of Japan meeting, additional interest rate hike decisions will be complicated due to weak private consumption - stakeholders...
Translated
3
●One-word comment
・The rapid price movements of the past few days have subsided, and we are in a lull state.
・As far as GDP is concerned, the US economy is still strong. However, if you notice the inflation rate is about to break half of 2%, real interest rates remain high at around 2%, and the state of tightening continues, so you can't let your guard down. Attention is being paid to whether the flow will change with the FOMC on the 31st.
*The daily update ends today. It will be weekly from now on, so thank you for your support.
●News until the evening
[The day before]
US GDP grows more than expected in April-June - highlights strong demand
[Today]
Timey listing opens up overseas investors, increases stable shareholders, and grows - Nihon Keizai Shimbun
●Financial Results and Economic Index Results
[The day before]
: US Real GDP Q2
[Real GDP per year compared to the previous fiscal year]
Previous: 1.4% Forecast: 2.0% Result: 2.8%
[GDP Deflator/ YoY]
Previous: 3.1% Forecast: 2.2% Result: 2.3%
●Notable price movements and special notes
[The day before]
:Gold $Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$
The most...
・The rapid price movements of the past few days have subsided, and we are in a lull state.
・As far as GDP is concerned, the US economy is still strong. However, if you notice the inflation rate is about to break half of 2%, real interest rates remain high at around 2%, and the state of tightening continues, so you can't let your guard down. Attention is being paid to whether the flow will change with the FOMC on the 31st.
*The daily update ends today. It will be weekly from now on, so thank you for your support.
●News until the evening
[The day before]
US GDP grows more than expected in April-June - highlights strong demand
[Today]
Timey listing opens up overseas investors, increases stable shareholders, and grows - Nihon Keizai Shimbun
●Financial Results and Economic Index Results
[The day before]
: US Real GDP Q2
[Real GDP per year compared to the previous fiscal year]
Previous: 1.4% Forecast: 2.0% Result: 2.8%
[GDP Deflator/ YoY]
Previous: 3.1% Forecast: 2.2% Result: 2.3%
●Notable price movements and special notes
[The day before]
:Gold $Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$
The most...
Translated
4
●One-word comment
・Stock price indices of many countries have plummeted, and in the case of Japan, the decline has increased due to the appreciation of the yen. The S&P 500 is falling by more than 2%.
・Correlations have increased not only for stocks, but also for other assets, starting with bond interest rates, and it seems to be moving quite a bit.
・Personally, I think the meaning of a fall from the ceiling zone is strong. I think the presence or absence of risk management divides the light and dark between investing and trading quite a bit.
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
↓ Continue to the news
●News until the evening
[The day before]
Central Bank of Canada cuts interest rate by 0.25% and continues 2 meetings in a row due to slowing inflation
[Column] Confessing a change of heart, FOMC cuts interest rates right now - Dudley
[Today]
The Nikkei Stock Average is 1285 yen, resonates with the depreciation of the yen, and Masuda Daiki enters an adjustment phase - Nihon Keizai Shimbun
●Financial Results and Economic Index Results
[The day before]
:index name: a...
・Stock price indices of many countries have plummeted, and in the case of Japan, the decline has increased due to the appreciation of the yen. The S&P 500 is falling by more than 2%.
・Correlations have increased not only for stocks, but also for other assets, starting with bond interest rates, and it seems to be moving quite a bit.
・Personally, I think the meaning of a fall from the ceiling zone is strong. I think the presence or absence of risk management divides the light and dark between investing and trading quite a bit.
$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
↓ Continue to the news
●News until the evening
[The day before]
Central Bank of Canada cuts interest rate by 0.25% and continues 2 meetings in a row due to slowing inflation
[Column] Confessing a change of heart, FOMC cuts interest rates right now - Dudley
[Today]
The Nikkei Stock Average is 1285 yen, resonates with the depreciation of the yen, and Masuda Daiki enters an adjustment phase - Nihon Keizai Shimbun
●Financial Results and Economic Index Results
[The day before]
:index name: a...
Translated
5
AvocadoWasabi
liked
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
The depreciation of the yen progressed to the point where 162 yen was added the other day, but it completely turned around and the yen appreciated to the point where it was cut 155 yen.
The American presidential election is becoming extremely confusing, and uncertainty about the future of exchange rates that cannot even be read is increasing.
However, aside from short-term fluctuations, I think the yen will depreciate over the long term.
I'm referring to Daisuke Karakama from Mizuho as evidence for thinking so.
- YouTube
Considerations from not only the Japan-US interest rate difference but also the trade balance and its breakdown are persuasive.
So, if the depreciation of the yen progresses as a long-term trend, I think the first individual investors should do is “continue long-term funded diversified investments.”
It's always an easy opinion that “amateurs should buy Orkan,” but personally, I also like foreign currency bonds, and I have a few.
I think “if you don't live with foreign currency, you should invest in yen” is true, but once in a while I want to go to Hawaii, so I can add up my travel funds, and if necessary as yen, I can transfer yen.
Unlike stocks and mutual funds...
The depreciation of the yen progressed to the point where 162 yen was added the other day, but it completely turned around and the yen appreciated to the point where it was cut 155 yen.
The American presidential election is becoming extremely confusing, and uncertainty about the future of exchange rates that cannot even be read is increasing.
However, aside from short-term fluctuations, I think the yen will depreciate over the long term.
I'm referring to Daisuke Karakama from Mizuho as evidence for thinking so.
- YouTube
Considerations from not only the Japan-US interest rate difference but also the trade balance and its breakdown are persuasive.
So, if the depreciation of the yen progresses as a long-term trend, I think the first individual investors should do is “continue long-term funded diversified investments.”
It's always an easy opinion that “amateurs should buy Orkan,” but personally, I also like foreign currency bonds, and I have a few.
I think “if you don't live with foreign currency, you should invest in yen” is true, but once in a while I want to go to Hawaii, so I can add up my travel funds, and if necessary as yen, I can transfer yen.
Unlike stocks and mutual funds...
Translated
8
2
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