Trump's return not only reshaped the political landscape of the USA but also injected new vitality into the Cryptos market. Bitcoin has shown a rare upward trend in the past two months, and the personal cryptocurrency "Trump Coin" ($Trump) launched by Trump has become a market focus, driving the entire Crypto Industry into a new development stage.
On January 20, Trump's official return to the White House inauguration ceremony became the focus of global attention. On that day, the Cryptos market also saw two major highlights. First, Bitcoin prices continued to rise, with a daily increase of 2.75%, reaching $107,479 per coin. Bitcoin's increase this month has exceeded 10%, and investors have shown great optimism about its future prospects.
Since Trump won the presidential election last November, Bitcoin prices have repeatedly hit new highs, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time last month. Market analysts believe that this upward trend is closely related to Trump's policy expectations. He excitedly posted on the social platform Truth Social: "Congratulations to all Bitcoin holders! One hundred thousand dollars! Let's make America great again together!"
In addition, Trump has decided to appoint cryptocurrency supporter Paul Atkins as the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This move is interpreted as a major bullish signal for the cryptocurrency market, as it implies that the US government may further "de-regulate" to create a more relaxed development environment for cryptocurrencies.
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The crypto market recently experienced a major shakeup. US President-elect Trump posted on his social account on January 18th local time, announcing the launch of his personal meme coin TRUMP. Users need to visit the website named 'gettrumpmemes' to obtain the token, and according to the information on that website, TRUMP is the only 'official Trump Meme coin'.
Once launched, TRUMP coin quickly became popular. CoinGecko's price data shows that the token started trading at an opening price of $0.1824, surging over 15000% within just 12 hours to reach around $30, with its fully diluted market cap skyrocketing to $32 billion, surpassing established tokens like TRON, Avalanche, ChainLink, and Shiba Inu. At the time of writing, the price of TRUMP coin has risen to $62.83, with a token FDV reaching $62.89 billion.
Some analysts point out that Trump's direct involvement in the token issuance blurs the lines between government role and business interests, and 80% of TRUMP coins are owned by the Trump Group, essentially 'profiteering from the presidential position.' However, analysts at The Trader Funds believe that the issuance of TRUMP coin marks the opening of the political meme coin market and the token's issuance on decentralized exchanges is a major innovation for the crypto ecosystem, optimistic about the 'Chain...

After the latest release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data in the USA, the price of Bitcoin rebounded strongly, breaking through the $96,000 mark, with a 2.5% increase in the past 24 hours. Among mainstream altcoins, XRP and DOGE have performed well, each with a rise of 6% to 7%. The market sentiment is warming up, showing that investors' confidence in the crypto market is gradually strengthening.
PPI data surpassing expectations injects momentum into the market.
According to reports, the US PPI in December only increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous month's 0.4% and also lower than the economists' consensus of 0.4%. As a forward-looking indicator of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the cooling of PPI signals further easing of inflationary pressure, which is a bullish signal for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market generally believes that this will reduce the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby boosting the risk assets market.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that sources close to the new Trump administration revealed plans by the President-elect to issue executive orders related to Cryptos after taking office. These orders may target the issue of 'debanking' and are expected to overturn the controversial SAB 121 policy, which restricts banks from providing services to cryptocurrency companies.
Cryptocurrency billionaire and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz mentioned last year that SAB...

On January 13, QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that the US non-farm payroll data reached 0.256 million, far higher than the expected 0.164 million, indicating signs of overheating in the economy. This has led to a slight cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts and the possibility of a reintroduction of tariff policies from the Trump era, causing concerns in the market about inflation.
Despite the macroeconomic pressure and lingering FUD sentiment related to the Silk Road, the support levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum are temporarily stable at $0.091 million and $3100 respectively. The options market volatility is showing a mild downward trend, only showing a slight Put bias before President Trump's inauguration. Data such as PPI, CPI, and unemployment rate will be successively released this week. Against the backdrop of the ongoing warming of the US economy, this week may be a key period to verify the role of Cryptos as an inflation hedging tool.

Behind the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market hides complex capital flows and behavioral patterns. From market rises to falls, wealth effects, marginal buyers, leverage risks all play important roles. This article will explore how these factors drive the cyclical volatility of the market and provide some coping suggestions for investors.
The fundamental reason for the market's rise is the influx of new funds. This inflow of funds not only drives prices up but also creates wealth effects, stimulating further development of the ecosystem. Airdrops are important tools for creating wealth effects. In September 2020, Uniswap distributed 400 UNI tokens to over 0.25 million addresses (valued at approximately $1400 at the time), with a total value exceeding $0.9 billion. This airdrop not only benefited users but also acted as a catalyst for the explosive growth of the DeFi ecosystem. In December 2023, Jito distributed 90 million JTO tokens to users, with a total value of up to $0.165 billion. Some users obtained returns of up to $0.01 million by transferring JitoSOL tokens worth only $40. Similar to Uniswap's impact on DeFi, Jito's airdrop drove the growth of Solana's total value locked (TVL) and sparked a significant amount of on-chain activities. In addition, the Jupiter project distributed 0.7 billion JUP tokens to over 2.3 million wallets, becoming one of the widest distribution airdrops in crypto history. These airdrops convert users into stakeholders, and beneficiaries often reinvest wealth back into the ecosystem, creating a self-reinforcing positive cycle.

On January 9th, the EMA50 level of Bitcoin's daily chart was breached at one point, but it was recovered the next day, indicating that there are still large institutional investors supporting near 91200. We can see that after reclaiming the EMA50 of the daily chart, Bitcoin consecutively formed three supporting Candlestick patterns, but as of now, attempts to test upwards towards the EMA20 of the daily chart were quickly rejected, indicating very strong resistance above. Currently, the mainstream market view is that it is unlikely for Bitcoin to experience significant further upward movement before the Spring Festival. However, the trend that Bitcoin shows post-Spring Festival will determine if this bull market is coming to an end. They believe that the inauguration of Trump is unlikely to cause significant market volatility, as market liquidity had already been priced in during last year's election period. Unless the interest rate policy can inject new liquidity, trading in the next two to three months will be extremely challenging.
I would choose to observe Bitcoin's price dropping to around 91188, to test the parallel bottom. If the price quickly rebounds, 91188 will be seen as a strong Resistance position, and we can use this price as a defensive point for our future entries. The timing of entry still depends on our Indicators such as EMA20/EMA50 and Vegas Tunnel.

On January 8th, Trader Funds trader Alex posted that influenced by the sharp drop in USA stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla, cryptocurrencies have also experienced significant adjustments. Bitcoin once again fell below 0.1 million USD, while altcoins suffered even more intense declines, causing market sentiment to turn pessimistic. The reasons behind this may be the release of the November JOLTs job openings data at 11 PM, as well as statements from Federal Reserve officials, triggering market risk aversion.
In terms of options data, short-term IV rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, with market pricing for future volatility unchanged. Option Skew and Futures Contango have also not shown significant changes. The mainstream view on this pullback is that it has been influenced by the strength of the US dollar and the drop in US stocks, but the trend of Bitcoin has not changed and the bull market continues.
Even though the total liquidation volume of Bitcoin reached 0.6 billion USD in 24 hours, the long and short ratio remains close to fifty-fifty, indicating that the bullish market is still present and confidence in Bitcoin has not been completely lost. In addition, Bitcoin's current greed and fear index is maintained at 70, showing that market sentiment is not entirely fearful.

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin will provide a very good entry opportunity after pulling back from breaking through the purple zone. Roughly estimated at 98,660 - 101,660, there could be a price increase of around 2,000 points. In the current volatile Bitcoin market, this is already considered a good trade. Moreover, with a small stop-loss space and a high profit-loss ratio, holding positions should be relatively comfortable. At this point, everyone can take partial profits, secure the profits, or raise the stop loss.
Here, let me introduce the concept of risk-reward ratio to you. The risk-reward ratio in the investment market is the ratio of profit and loss in each trade. It reflects the risk taken for potential profit in investment trading. For example, if the risk-reward ratio is 3, it means risking one unit of money, a trade that has the potential to profit three units of money. Of course, you may lose that one unit of money, but as long as one out of three trades is successful and profits three units of money, then you have made a profit overall. Successful traders who consistently earn significant money have trading systems with high risk-reward ratios, ensuring stable profits.
Similarly, here we introduce two potential high risk-to-reward ratio opportunities for everyone.
If Bitcoin retraces to 100,550 and quickly bounces back up, it indicates that the buying interest in Bitcoin is strong at this time. We can place a stop-loss just below this 4-hour large bullish candlestick (near the upper boundary of the purple zone) and attempt to challenge a new high for Bitcoin.
2. If Bitcoin retraces deeply, even re...