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"Regulation is coming to the crypto markets, but it will be a slow, measured process," writes Rosenblatt analyst Sean Horgan in a note summing up the firm's first two discussions with former markets regulators.
Brett Redfearn, former director of Division of Trading & Markets at the SEC and former head of capital markets at $Coinbase(COIN.US)$, and Dorothy DeWitt, former director of the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight and former VP and general counsel for Business Lines and Markets at Coinbase were the first two speakers in a series on cryptocurrency regulation.
Both thought it unlikely that the government would create a new federal regulator for cryptocurrency, as Coinbase has suggested, given that would be the most costly option. Redfearn expects that the SEC may get the mandate due to its sway on Capitol Hill and its investor protection focus.
DeWitt sees the potential for the Treasury and banking regulators overseeing stablecoin, while the SEC or CFTC may get oversight of non-stablecoin areas.
She expects stablecoin issuers will be treated like banks with heavy regulation going forward, given the proposals from the President's Working Group on Financial Markets earlier this month.
Redfearn suggests that larger banks need to delve into adopting crypto assets because of the threat from decentralized finance applications moving finance out of the banks and into the hands of individuals, who are trying to disintermediate banks, Horgan said.
He said that companies resisting regulatory changes may "capture more market share in the short term, but those who are proactive as they anticipate regulation will benefit in the long term," according to Horgan's note. The analyst sees that as benefiting $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ and a negative for Coinbase, $Tether(USDT.CC)$, and BlockFi.
The two former regulators also discussed the potential for stricter regulations on payment for order flow (PFOF), which would affect stocks like Robinhood and $Virtu Financial(VIRT.US)$.
Redfearn expects crypto PFOF to be handled separately from equity and options PFOF. Most of the focus currently appears to be on equity PFOF; that's a positive for Robinhood, Horgan said, as its revenue from equity PFOF is shrinking as a percentage of its PFOF revenue.
In August, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said a full ban on PFOF was on the table.
In crypto news today, U.S. banking regulators will focus on custody, trading, stablecoins in crypto sprint
$Bitcoin(BTC.CC)$ $Dogecoin(DOGE.CC)$ $Ethereum(ETH.CC)$