Cherry Cat
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Thank you all for your support on my last annual review post (2024 stock market review + 2025 outlook), today let's talk about cryptocurrency and future investment opportunities.
Recently, BTC has been consolidating, with a confirmed bottom at $93,000, first resistance at 0.1 million, second resistance at 10.6 to 0.108 million, expecting a new high in January after recent short-term fluctuations.
After BTC's mid-term rise from 50k to 100k, the market's expectations for BTC's sharp rise again have decreased significantly, and BTC-related concepts are no longer the market focus. However, this wave of pullback has basically bottomed out, medium-term hold positions, preferring significant benefits in the bull market. $Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR.US)$ ， $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ With BTC leverage $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Waiting for the opportunity brought by the bull market in BTC. Pure mining stocks have been lagging behind BTC in the past and in the future, not suitable for long-term holding, but can still be used for some short-term trading combined with the BTC market.
Apart from BTC-related concepts, where are the main opportunities in the current market?
Stock investments are based on expectations and the future. Although we may find it difficult to predict the specific trends of individual stocks during this period, it is worth imagining what the world will be like 5 or 10 years from now. Which will be the most outstanding companies at that time? By looking ahead, we can identify the industries and companies that will benefit the most in this cycle, and focus on investing in those specific targets. What scenarios will we see in 10 years? Wel...
Recently, BTC has been consolidating, with a confirmed bottom at $93,000, first resistance at 0.1 million, second resistance at 10.6 to 0.108 million, expecting a new high in January after recent short-term fluctuations.
After BTC's mid-term rise from 50k to 100k, the market's expectations for BTC's sharp rise again have decreased significantly, and BTC-related concepts are no longer the market focus. However, this wave of pullback has basically bottomed out, medium-term hold positions, preferring significant benefits in the bull market. $Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR.US)$ ， $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ With BTC leverage $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Waiting for the opportunity brought by the bull market in BTC. Pure mining stocks have been lagging behind BTC in the past and in the future, not suitable for long-term holding, but can still be used for some short-term trading combined with the BTC market.
Apart from BTC-related concepts, where are the main opportunities in the current market?
Stock investments are based on expectations and the future. Although we may find it difficult to predict the specific trends of individual stocks during this period, it is worth imagining what the world will be like 5 or 10 years from now. Which will be the most outstanding companies at that time? By looking ahead, we can identify the industries and companies that will benefit the most in this cycle, and focus on investing in those specific targets. What scenarios will we see in 10 years? Wel...
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Cherry Cat
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Recently began organizing the names of settlements completed in the fourth quarter, in preparation for the quarterly summary of the fourth quarter, and discovered 3 interesting trades:
$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ Sell out when there are too many instances above the upper trendline...
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ $NextNav (NN.US)$ Both were sold out when approaching 10X ATR and exceeding 50-day moving average as final sell signals...
Although these 3 trades have shown good profits in terms of results (100%+, 50%+, 50%+), in practice, it has been proven that sell indicators such as observing indicators along the upper trendlines and using the ATR multiple extension relative to the 50MA appear weak in the face of truly strong names...
"No one is smarter than the 10/20MA" - Qullamagie
Respect to Qullamagie once again 🫡
Merry Christmas 🎄🎅🎁
$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ Sell out when there are too many instances above the upper trendline...
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ $NextNav (NN.US)$ Both were sold out when approaching 10X ATR and exceeding 50-day moving average as final sell signals...
Although these 3 trades have shown good profits in terms of results (100%+, 50%+, 50%+), in practice, it has been proven that sell indicators such as observing indicators along the upper trendlines and using the ATR multiple extension relative to the 50MA appear weak in the face of truly strong names...
"No one is smarter than the 10/20MA" - Qullamagie
Respect to Qullamagie once again 🫡
Merry Christmas 🎄🎅🎁
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Cherry Cat
liked
Last week review 👉🏻Market review + Hold Positions (09/12-13/12 2024)
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Wednesdays.
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
ndx > spx > rut.
SPX and RUT have almost completely given back all the profits from the Trump campaign rally; NDX remains relatively resilient at this stage; NDX is still above the 50MA, closing near the 20MA on Friday, SPX barely closing above the 50MA, RUT returning to the chip accumulation zone before VCP; detailed preparation for the possibilities in both directions is still needed at this stage, uncertainty always accompanies the norm; the next two weeks are expected to have relatively dry trading volumes seasonally, perfect for in-depth chart work for the future, and proper relaxation of mind and body, personally will also enter vacation mode on an island.
Weekly Charts:
NDX remains above the 10MA, SPX closed near the 10MA, RUT temporarily successfully tested the 30MA; the uptrend is still intact.
Breadth:
From December 9th to December 19th, there was a massacre of breadth for 9 consecutive trading days. It is worth noting that the positive readings on the 18th and 19th were the two lowest values in the second half of the year, and the negative reading on the 19th was the lowest since the second half of the year...
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Wednesdays.
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
ndx > spx > rut.
SPX and RUT have almost completely given back all the profits from the Trump campaign rally; NDX remains relatively resilient at this stage; NDX is still above the 50MA, closing near the 20MA on Friday, SPX barely closing above the 50MA, RUT returning to the chip accumulation zone before VCP; detailed preparation for the possibilities in both directions is still needed at this stage, uncertainty always accompanies the norm; the next two weeks are expected to have relatively dry trading volumes seasonally, perfect for in-depth chart work for the future, and proper relaxation of mind and body, personally will also enter vacation mode on an island.
Weekly Charts:
NDX remains above the 10MA, SPX closed near the 10MA, RUT temporarily successfully tested the 30MA; the uptrend is still intact.
Breadth:
From December 9th to December 19th, there was a massacre of breadth for 9 consecutive trading days. It is worth noting that the positive readings on the 18th and 19th were the two lowest values in the second half of the year, and the negative reading on the 19th was the lowest since the second half of the year...
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Cherry Cat
liked
Dealing with losses (excerpt from Chapter 16 of 'Disciplined Trader', Step 2):
If you can quickly understand and fully accept it, then you are lucky;
If not, there is another way: after experiencing enough pain, completely change yourself, and then fully accept it.
If you can quickly understand and fully accept it, then you are lucky;
If not, there is another way: after experiencing enough pain, completely change yourself, and then fully accept it.
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Cherry Cat
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When your winners have been running for a certain period of time, it is necessary to tighten the stop-loss to deal with low-probability events. The situation this Wednesday is exactly the low-probability event that needs to be addressed, in order to protect your rate of return. Here is the profit turnaround situation on the day of tightening the stop-loss. Just imagine, how much profit would be given back if it was not tightened?
On the other hand, such a market provides a rare period for observing Gold, stay optimistic, take appropriate rest, and gradually start a new round of chart research 🚴🏻
On the other hand, such a market provides a rare period for observing Gold, stay optimistic, take appropriate rest, and gradually start a new round of chart research 🚴🏻
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Cherry Cat
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Cherry Cat
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Cherry Cat
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Review of last week 👉🏻Market Review + Holding Positions (02/12-06/12 2024)
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distributing on Monday, accumulating funds on Friday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Distributed on Mondays and Fridays, absorbed on Wednesdays;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Distributed on Mondays and Thursdays, absorbed on Wednesdays.
ndx > spx > rut.
In the past two weeks, there has been a strong market with weak performance, which participants familiar with the market cycle rhythm of the past two years should be no strangers to. It's time to start tightening defensive measures until the situation with mid- and small-cap stocks improves; BTC is still hovering around 100,000 consuming the energy of contract players, semiconductors are still in accumulation phase struggling with upward momentum, biotechnology is being slaughtered once again...
Weekly Charts:
NDX and SPX still have not changed much, while RUT has seen large trading volumes in red candles over the past two weeks, which requires a bit of attention.
Breadth:
Although still in green, there is a noticeable trend of short-term deterioration.
Weekly Notes:
Within the system trades: COIN and PTON's RS are slightly downgraded.
Market Sentiment:
AAII's relative bullish sentiment cooled slightly compared to the previous week, with almost no sign of contrarian market behavior this week.
The panic index remains neutral, with two breadth branches in extreme panic.
Current positions held:
Among them: MSTR, BKKT, OLLI, UNFI,...
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distributing on Monday, accumulating funds on Friday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Distributed on Mondays and Fridays, absorbed on Wednesdays;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Distributed on Mondays and Thursdays, absorbed on Wednesdays.
ndx > spx > rut.
In the past two weeks, there has been a strong market with weak performance, which participants familiar with the market cycle rhythm of the past two years should be no strangers to. It's time to start tightening defensive measures until the situation with mid- and small-cap stocks improves; BTC is still hovering around 100,000 consuming the energy of contract players, semiconductors are still in accumulation phase struggling with upward momentum, biotechnology is being slaughtered once again...
Weekly Charts:
NDX and SPX still have not changed much, while RUT has seen large trading volumes in red candles over the past two weeks, which requires a bit of attention.
Breadth:
Although still in green, there is a noticeable trend of short-term deterioration.
Weekly Notes:
Within the system trades: COIN and PTON's RS are slightly downgraded.
Market Sentiment:
AAII's relative bullish sentiment cooled slightly compared to the previous week, with almost no sign of contrarian market behavior this week.
The panic index remains neutral, with two breadth branches in extreme panic.
Current positions held:
Among them: MSTR, BKKT, OLLI, UNFI,...
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Cherry Cat
liked
Focus daily on easily monitoring names (4-8 names), while easily switching between 1 minute/5 minutes/1 hour👇
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Cherry Cat
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Sell:
$BTC Digital (BTCT.US)$ (-0.309%) I exited the position by breaking the stop loss on Monday, and the account incurred a loss of 0.309%; the stop loss is prepared for low-probability events, which obviously is a low-probability event (a fast and sharp drop).
$GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US)$ (-0.299%) fell below the stop-loss and exited the market on Monday, resulting in a 0.299% account loss.
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ (+2.259%) From the time of purchase, 9 out of 10 days showed an upward trend. Respecting the pressure line on the weekly chart of the major cycle, chose to exit early when there was strength, sold 2/3 of the position on Monday, resulting in a 2.259% account profit; a fast and efficient trade.
$Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US)$ Try to buy the breakout above the 20MA with a 0.3% risk for three days on Monday, fell below the stop loss and exited on Tuesday, resulting in a loss of 0.373% in the account; the stop loss once again proved its value in preventing low-probability events, CAPR and BTCT, judging from the trading results, their contribution to the account is absolutely not weaker than those winning stocks that greatly benefited the account. 🙂.
$American Superconductor (AMSC.US)$ Buy the flag breakout on Monday (0.3%, -0.309%), and exit the stop loss on Tuesday, with the account...
$BTC Digital (BTCT.US)$ (-0.309%) I exited the position by breaking the stop loss on Monday, and the account incurred a loss of 0.309%; the stop loss is prepared for low-probability events, which obviously is a low-probability event (a fast and sharp drop).
$GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US)$ (-0.299%) fell below the stop-loss and exited the market on Monday, resulting in a 0.299% account loss.
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ (+2.259%) From the time of purchase, 9 out of 10 days showed an upward trend. Respecting the pressure line on the weekly chart of the major cycle, chose to exit early when there was strength, sold 2/3 of the position on Monday, resulting in a 2.259% account profit; a fast and efficient trade.
$Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US)$ Try to buy the breakout above the 20MA with a 0.3% risk for three days on Monday, fell below the stop loss and exited on Tuesday, resulting in a loss of 0.373% in the account; the stop loss once again proved its value in preventing low-probability events, CAPR and BTCT, judging from the trading results, their contribution to the account is absolutely not weaker than those winning stocks that greatly benefited the account. 🙂.
$American Superconductor (AMSC.US)$ Buy the flag breakout on Monday (0.3%, -0.309%), and exit the stop loss on Tuesday, with the account...
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