Chih Chiang
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$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Looking at the relationship between Russell 2000 and S&P500 we are trading just below the regression channel of the last 10 years. This only happened twice in recent times - the housing crisis in 2008 and the Covid crisis in 2020.
If the S&P stays up (i.e. doesn't collapse) then I would expect Small Caps to lead higher to return at a minimum to the mean. With other words, unless the S&P collapses this week I see Small Caps holding support and start moving higher.
If the S&P stays up (i.e. doesn't collapse) then I would expect Small Caps to lead higher to return at a minimum to the mean. With other words, unless the S&P collapses this week I see Small Caps holding support and start moving higher.
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Chih Chiang
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We are entering a new market regime unlike any in the past half century: We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. But BlackRock have dialed back our risk-taking given the wide range of potential outcomes in 2022.
The global investment manager--BlackRock published 2022 Global Outlook 'Thriving in a new market regime' and offered three investment themes and suggestion.
BlackRock favors Chinese assets in 2022 outlook. Meanwhile, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bridgewater, Fedility, Vanguard and other Wallstreet insitutions bullish on China.
01 Living with inflation
We expect inflation to be persistent and settle above pre-Covid levels. We expect central banks to kick off rate hikes but remain more tolerant of price pressures, keeping real interest rates historically low and supportive of risk assets.
Implication: prefer equities over fixed income and remain overweight inflation- linked bonds.
02 Cutting through confusion
A unique mix of events – the restart, new virus strains, supply-driven inflation and new central bank frameworks – could cause markets and policymakers to misread inflation. We keep the big picture in mind but acknowledge risks – to the upside and downside - around our core view.
Implication: trim risk amid an unusually wide range of outcomes.
03 Navigating net zero
The journey for the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 is happening now, and is part of the inflation story. We believe a smooth transition is the least inflationary outcome, yet even this still amounts to a supply shock playing out over decades.
Implication: favor developed market (DM) equities over emerging markets (EM).
Meanwhile,Blackrock said they see a significant shift in China's overall policy stance toward greater state intervention and social objectives, even at the occasional expense of growth. The regulatory clampdown and tighter policy stance that rattled global investors in 2021 made that shift clear.
Yet we believe the low starting point of global investor allocations to Chinese assets is at odds with the economy's growing heft in the world. We estimate current allocations in global portfolios point to an overly negative economic outlook in coming years- such as a long-lasting growth shock akin to Japan in the 1990s.
We maintain our long-term overweight to Chinese assets relative to low global allocations. We assume greater regulation over a strategic horizon as China balances social and economic mobjectives – one reason we bake in materially higher uncertainty and risk premia for China compared with DM markets.
We recognize the risks, yet see current valuations as offering eligible investors adequate compensation for them.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
The global investment manager--BlackRock published 2022 Global Outlook 'Thriving in a new market regime' and offered three investment themes and suggestion.
BlackRock favors Chinese assets in 2022 outlook. Meanwhile, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bridgewater, Fedility, Vanguard and other Wallstreet insitutions bullish on China.
01 Living with inflation
We expect inflation to be persistent and settle above pre-Covid levels. We expect central banks to kick off rate hikes but remain more tolerant of price pressures, keeping real interest rates historically low and supportive of risk assets.
Implication: prefer equities over fixed income and remain overweight inflation- linked bonds.
02 Cutting through confusion
A unique mix of events – the restart, new virus strains, supply-driven inflation and new central bank frameworks – could cause markets and policymakers to misread inflation. We keep the big picture in mind but acknowledge risks – to the upside and downside - around our core view.
Implication: trim risk amid an unusually wide range of outcomes.
03 Navigating net zero
The journey for the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 is happening now, and is part of the inflation story. We believe a smooth transition is the least inflationary outcome, yet even this still amounts to a supply shock playing out over decades.
Implication: favor developed market (DM) equities over emerging markets (EM).
Meanwhile,Blackrock said they see a significant shift in China's overall policy stance toward greater state intervention and social objectives, even at the occasional expense of growth. The regulatory clampdown and tighter policy stance that rattled global investors in 2021 made that shift clear.
Yet we believe the low starting point of global investor allocations to Chinese assets is at odds with the economy's growing heft in the world. We estimate current allocations in global portfolios point to an overly negative economic outlook in coming years- such as a long-lasting growth shock akin to Japan in the 1990s.
We maintain our long-term overweight to Chinese assets relative to low global allocations. We assume greater regulation over a strategic horizon as China balances social and economic mobjectives – one reason we bake in materially higher uncertainty and risk premia for China compared with DM markets.
We recognize the risks, yet see current valuations as offering eligible investors adequate compensation for them.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
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Chih Chiang
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$VICI Properties (VICI.US)$ Jump on the VICI wagon two years ago after reading one of your earlier articles and doing some due diligence; initial cost of $21/share; I’ve added since then a few times when it dips back to 27-28 range. Love the long term prospects of VICI.
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Chih Chiang
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$DraftKings (DKNG.US)$ will this drop further
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Chih Chiang
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$Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ $JetBlue Airways (JBLU.US)$ $Southwest Airlines (LUV.US)$ Commercial aviation is not going to be returning to pre-CV levels until the mask mandate is gone. Many immunized people are simply unwilling to to take the health risks associated with re-breathing their own waste (CO2) and wear a mask just for SHOW. Elevated levels of CO2 are unhealthy.
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