Initial Jobless Claims Near Record Lows, Continuing Claims At 2-Year-Highs
Prior week 202K (were estimating 220K)
Initial jobless claims 205K vs 215K estimate
4-week MA jobless claims
Continuing Claims 1.865M vs 1.888M estimate. Prior week 1.876M
4-week MA continuing claims
US Q3 2023 GDP (third reading) +4.9% vs +5.2% expected
The second reading was +5.2.%
GDP revised lower.
The Q2 final reading was +2.1%
Details:
Consumer spending +3.1% vs +3.6% prelim
Consumer spending on dur...

According to the CME, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points by July is 70.9% and by 100 basis points is 29.1%; the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 75 and 100 basis points by September is 0%, the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is 36.9%, the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 150 basis points is 49.2% and the probability of raising interest rates by 175 basis points is 14.0%.
How much will th...