§Last week, Trump won the presidential election, pushing yields to their highest since early July. OIS forwards are pricing in a less dovish path for Fed policy than JPM's revised forecast. Despite this suggesting a good opportunity to add duration, the momentum towards higher yields remains strong.
§Trump’s victory could lead to more expansionary fiscal policies in the future. He is likely to extend most of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and will raise some t...

 Last week, the Beige Book released painted a picture that activity has been much softer than hard data have indicated, which may alleviate market’s concerns about a pause in rate cuts. For instance, Hurricane Helene destroyed crops and paused business activity and tourism, and most districts saw a fall in manufacturing activity.
 As for data releases last week, US jobs report was the main focus, and data revealed more positive growth outlook, with initial...

·  Last week, data reflected better-than-expected domestic consumption and labor market.
·  Retail sales in September rose by 0.4%, surpassing the 0.3% consensus, and the control group increased by 0.7%, also beating the 0.3% consensus. As such, economists believe these figures indicate a stronger consumption growth rate in 2H24.
·  Initial claims dropped by 19k to 241k, lower than the 259k consensus, partially reversing the manufacturing-related increase i...

• September FOMC meeting minutes revealed a split decision on rate cuts, with the majority favoring a 50 bp reduction. However, as last week's data came out more robust than anticipated, it is forecasted that the pace of rate cuts will be slower moving forward.
• Last Thursday saw the release of weak labor market data, with initial claims rising to 258k (consensus: 230k) amidst disruptions arising from Hurricane Helene and Michigan’s layoffs.
• Inflation prin...