$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Earnings call live broadcast is coming soon! Based on the recent market performance of SMCI, I have made predictions for 3 scenarios:
Best case scenario forecast
Probability:30%
In the best case scenario, SMCI can successfully turn the situation around through the following actions:
1. Quickly find and cooperate with a new audit firm, and rebuild market confidence through improved financial transparency.
2. Strengthen governance structure to ensure the independence and compliance of the management team and the board of directors, and improve internal controls.
3. Maintain technological innovation in AI servers and liquid cooling technology, seize current market demands, and continue to expand market share.
As these measures depend on the company's internal efforts, cooperation from external audit firms, and the stability of market demand, the probability is around 30%. This probability takes into account the significant impact of the current negative news on the company, but its technological advantages in the fields of AI and high-performance servers may still provide the company with a turnaround opportunity.
Worst-case scenario prediction
Probability:50%
In the worst-case scenario, the risks faced by SMCI are as follows:
1. Failure to effectively rectify financial and governance issues, leading to further escalation of audit issues, which may trigger in-depth investigations by regulatory institutions and more severe financial scrutiny.
2. Loss of customer and investor confidence, which may result in customers switching to competitors, leading to a decrease in company revenue and market share.
3. The continuous low stock price or further decline has led to financing difficulties, affecting future business expansion and technology...

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