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Investors currently see a 83% probability that the Fed will raise its benchmark overnight lending rate at its March 15-16 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch program. They are pricing in another three rate hikes this year.
On 1 December last year, the probability of a rate hike in March was only 24%.
Why it rised so quickly?
In fact, the Fed is becoming hawks. Recently, several Fed officials nod to March rate hike including Lael Brianard who...
On 1 December last year, the probability of a rate hike in March was only 24%.
Why it rised so quickly?
In fact, the Fed is becoming hawks. Recently, several Fed officials nod to March rate hike including Lael Brianard who...
![A March Fed rate hike nearly a done deal](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/3612774787096378978.png/thumb)
![A March Fed rate hike nearly a done deal](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/5108836708947403697.png/thumb)
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Last week, $E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures(MAR5) (RTYmain.US)$ gained 6% (top right as highlighted in yellow) and was the best performer among the 4 major US indices, followed by $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(MAR5) (NQmain.US)$ , $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(MAR5) (ESmain.US)$ and $E-mini Dow Futures(MAR5) (YMmain.US)$ .
Both $Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures(MAR5) (M2Kmain.US)$ and $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ just broke out from the re-accumulation structure while $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ and Nasdaq travels within a well define up channel and currently hit the channel's overbought line. Would we see a rotation from the S&P 500 and $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ to the Russell and the Dow Jones?
Let's focus on the daily chart of the Russell 2000 index futures (RTY) as shown below:
An apex formation has formed since July 2021 and there is something unusual about this triangle pattern. Normally, while the price is consolidating within the triangle (forming lower high and higher low), we will notice decreasing of the volume together with the contraction of the volatility (e.g. the price spread of the candles are getting smaller from left to right hand side of the triangle).
In this case, despite the volatility is getting lower, the volume is expanding on every down wave, suggesting lots of selling. Yet, what's the results? A higher low throughout from Aug till Nov 2021. This suggests that there was supply absorption going on while the selling happened.
This is very constructive for a bullish scenario because the "strong hands" step in to support the price on every reaction and to scoop up the bargain.
At the end of Oct 2021, there is an attempt to breakout of both the triangle and the horizontal resistance at 2310 followed by a shallow pullback and reversal, which marks the last point of support (LPS) of the accumulation structure before the sign of strength rally breaks above the structure. The supply level is especially low from the previous reaction suggests that the absorption is completed and ready to markup.
As heavy supply has been absorbed within the triangle pattern, we might not expect a backup action coming back to test the axis line where the resistance-turned-support around 2310–2370, instead the backup action could happen at higher ground.
The breakout of the Russell 2000 gives the first confirmation of the scenario of possible rotation from big cap stocks to small cap stocks.
A Quick Guide to Get Exposure to Small-Caps
The easiest way to participate the small caps without worrying about stock picking is via the ETFs. Feel free check out $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ , $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$ , $Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$ , $SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SLY.US)$ , $Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Value Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap Value Index--Symbol--Cvk (SLYV.US)$ , $Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Growth Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap 600 Growth Index --Symbol Cgk) (SLYG.US)$ .
If you want to take it to the next level to beat the ETF, just explore the individual stocks within the those ETFs and pick those that outperform the market, sector and group with accumulation structure and wait for the right trade setup that suits you. For example, $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ just about to complete the Wyckoff accumulation structure and is a potential candidate to ride on the strong trend of $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.US)$ .
Both $Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index Futures(MAR5) (M2Kmain.US)$ and $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ just broke out from the re-accumulation structure while $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ and Nasdaq travels within a well define up channel and currently hit the channel's overbought line. Would we see a rotation from the S&P 500 and $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ to the Russell and the Dow Jones?
Let's focus on the daily chart of the Russell 2000 index futures (RTY) as shown below:
An apex formation has formed since July 2021 and there is something unusual about this triangle pattern. Normally, while the price is consolidating within the triangle (forming lower high and higher low), we will notice decreasing of the volume together with the contraction of the volatility (e.g. the price spread of the candles are getting smaller from left to right hand side of the triangle).
In this case, despite the volatility is getting lower, the volume is expanding on every down wave, suggesting lots of selling. Yet, what's the results? A higher low throughout from Aug till Nov 2021. This suggests that there was supply absorption going on while the selling happened.
This is very constructive for a bullish scenario because the "strong hands" step in to support the price on every reaction and to scoop up the bargain.
At the end of Oct 2021, there is an attempt to breakout of both the triangle and the horizontal resistance at 2310 followed by a shallow pullback and reversal, which marks the last point of support (LPS) of the accumulation structure before the sign of strength rally breaks above the structure. The supply level is especially low from the previous reaction suggests that the absorption is completed and ready to markup.
As heavy supply has been absorbed within the triangle pattern, we might not expect a backup action coming back to test the axis line where the resistance-turned-support around 2310–2370, instead the backup action could happen at higher ground.
The breakout of the Russell 2000 gives the first confirmation of the scenario of possible rotation from big cap stocks to small cap stocks.
A Quick Guide to Get Exposure to Small-Caps
The easiest way to participate the small caps without worrying about stock picking is via the ETFs. Feel free check out $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ , $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO.US)$ , $Ishares Russell 2000 Value Etf (IWN.US)$ , $SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap ETF (SLY.US)$ , $Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Value Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap Value Index--Symbol--Cvk (SLYV.US)$ , $Spdr S&P 600 Small Cap Growth Etf (Based On S&P Smallcap 600 Growth Index --Symbol Cgk) (SLYG.US)$ .
If you want to take it to the next level to beat the ETF, just explore the individual stocks within the those ETFs and pick those that outperform the market, sector and group with accumulation structure and wait for the right trade setup that suits you. For example, $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ just about to complete the Wyckoff accumulation structure and is a potential candidate to ride on the strong trend of $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC.US)$ .
![A Bargain you can't Ignore — This Laggard Breaks All Time High Last Week](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1750101394886885695.jpg/thumb)
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Hey mooers,
How are you doing?
We’ve invited two moomoo product managers to introduce themselves to you in the last two weeks. They shared some of their product philosophy and stories behind the scenes. How did you find their stories and product philosophy?
We are inspired by your brilliant ideas and feedback. The moomoo PM team is working hard to meet your expectations!
Feel free to share your opinions with us on our App anytime via "Moo – Streams - Moo Features - #Talk to PM". We aim to provide you with the best experiences and are looking forward to your feedback.
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Ladies and gentlemen, today we have our 3rd guest here!
A big hand to moomoo product manager Jason!
Host: Hi Jason, welcome to join us! What did you bring us today?
PM Jason: I would like to introduce a feature called "Unusual Activity" of US options. It presents the latest block orders filled in the options market. Investors may make good use of it and predict the price trends of US stock options.
"Unuaual Activity" of US Options
Host: What makes this feature stand out?
PM Jason: You know before we presented this function with the UI design shown above, there were all kinds of displays for the same feature in the market. The interesting thing is, after we did it this way, all market players followed us, and now their Apps for the function basically look the same as ours. LOL.
Host: Hahaha, so funny. So you did some pioneering work for the industry!
PM Jason: I'd like to be the first to do something. As moomoo PMs, we need to be as innovative as possible because our products are among the best in the industry and often imitated by others. We will keep developing and launching original products to become the model of the industry.
Host: Would you like to share your key "product philosophy" with us?
PM Jason: For me, the essential one is to closely observe the changes in people's daily lives. Small changes in people's daily routines, technological advances, and the birth of a new industry could all profoundly impact users' investment preferences. Art comes from life, so does a great product.
Thank you, Jason! Let's hear it for our special guest, Jason!
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Like this article, if you enjoy PM Jason's sharings!
Feel free to comment below to let us know if you have any suggestions for the "Talk to PM" program.
Recap for previous episodes of moomoo Product Stories>>
PM George: The “Investment Rush Hour” made me become a product manager.
PM Jane: The super power I wish to have is mind reading!
How are you doing?
We’ve invited two moomoo product managers to introduce themselves to you in the last two weeks. They shared some of their product philosophy and stories behind the scenes. How did you find their stories and product philosophy?
We are inspired by your brilliant ideas and feedback. The moomoo PM team is working hard to meet your expectations!
Feel free to share your opinions with us on our App anytime via "Moo – Streams - Moo Features - #Talk to PM". We aim to provide you with the best experiences and are looking forward to your feedback.
Ladies and gentlemen, today we have our 3rd guest here!
A big hand to moomoo product manager Jason!
"Unuaual Activity" of US Options
Like this article, if you enjoy PM Jason's sharings!
Feel free to comment below to let us know if you have any suggestions for the "Talk to PM" program.
Recap for previous episodes of moomoo Product Stories>>
PM George: The “Investment Rush Hour” made me become a product manager.
PM Jane: The super power I wish to have is mind reading!
![moomoo Product Story Ep3: "Art comes from life, so does a great product"](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1636104578330-77777004-android-compress.png/thumb)
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![Picture](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1634293302213-71602939-android-org.gif/thumb)
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Spoiler:
At the end of this post, there is a chance for you to win points!
Vote first plz~~
Investing is a highly rational activity. Investors need to avoid emotion that affects their decisions. However, we sometimes find it hard to stop feeling the up and down in the market. Since it's inevitable, why wouldn't we embrace it? Let's see how mooers express their emotions. Feel them like you are in their shoes.
Grief is the most common emotion that happens in the market:
@Rogue Trader 7: waiting on Monday be like....
@Sikwitit: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ don’t you have these thoughts sometimes when traveling and having a AMC conversation with your significant other?
#BUY #AMC & #HODL
#ApesNotLeaving #amctothemoon
@DayleyTrades: KEY TO MOASS HODL @ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@Smoke-A-Shotgun: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
On the other side we can also see Ecstasy:
@Rebelraven: Let'errrrrr ripppppp! LFG! $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@Rogue Trader 7: Here we go! $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
wow, literary ecstasy
@Rogue Trader 7: I need em! $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@VinnyDaddy: Hail to the king cat! $ChemoCentryx (CCXI.US)$
Besides them, there's another type of people that take practical way to deal with their emotion
@DayleyTrades: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
Don’t lose hope, they want your shares so bad. HODL DIAMOND HANDS @ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
In the end, we will all find the inner peace.
@Mr Trecherous: Relax And Trust That Voice In Your Heart
This week, we'd like to invite you to comment below and tell about the strong emotions that happened in your investing career.
We will select 20 TOP COMMENTS by next Monday.
Winners will get 88 points by next week, with which you can exchange gifts at Reward Club.
*Comments within this week will be counted.
You may post:
● A related meme in gif or jpeg
● A story about investing and strong emotion
● Other creative ways to show your sense of humor
How to find Rewards Club?
That's all for this week, peace!!!![]()
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![]()
At the end of this post, there is a chance for you to win points!
Vote first plz~~
Investing is a highly rational activity. Investors need to avoid emotion that affects their decisions. However, we sometimes find it hard to stop feeling the up and down in the market. Since it's inevitable, why wouldn't we embrace it? Let's see how mooers express their emotions. Feel them like you are in their shoes.
Grief is the most common emotion that happens in the market:
@Rogue Trader 7: waiting on Monday be like....
@Sikwitit: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ don’t you have these thoughts sometimes when traveling and having a AMC conversation with your significant other?
#BUY #AMC & #HODL
#ApesNotLeaving #amctothemoon
@DayleyTrades: KEY TO MOASS HODL @ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@Smoke-A-Shotgun: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
On the other side we can also see Ecstasy:
@Rebelraven: Let'errrrrr ripppppp! LFG! $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@Rogue Trader 7: Here we go! $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
wow, literary ecstasy
@Rogue Trader 7: I need em! $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@VinnyDaddy: Hail to the king cat! $ChemoCentryx (CCXI.US)$
Besides them, there's another type of people that take practical way to deal with their emotion
@DayleyTrades: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
Don’t lose hope, they want your shares so bad. HODL DIAMOND HANDS @ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
In the end, we will all find the inner peace.
@Mr Trecherous: Relax And Trust That Voice In Your Heart
This week, we'd like to invite you to comment below and tell about the strong emotions that happened in your investing career.
We will select 20 TOP COMMENTS by next Monday.
Winners will get 88 points by next week, with which you can exchange gifts at Reward Club.
*Comments within this week will be counted.
You may post:
● A related meme in gif or jpeg
● A story about investing and strong emotion
● Other creative ways to show your sense of humor
How to find Rewards Club?
That's all for this week, peace!!!
![MooHumor: Extreme emotions while investing.](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1634299264779-77777000-android-org.gif/thumb)
![MooHumor: Extreme emotions while investing.](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1634299264876-77777000-android-org.jpg/thumb)
![MooHumor: Extreme emotions while investing.](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1634299264887-77777000-android-org.jpg/thumb)
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There's a traditional festival celebrated by many East and Southeast Asian people called "moon festival". On this day, some Asians believe that the moon is at its brightest and fullest size, coinciding with harvest time in the middle of Autumn. However, recently we found a group of people is sharing a similar belief to Asian people for unknown reasons. They are fascinated by the moon and have blind faith in going outer space. The most efficient way to identify them is to see whether they kept mumbling: "buy and hold" from time to time. .
Let's take a look at their "leap of faith".
@Soulforger: To The Moon!
@Orlagh $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ Just waiting for that trip to the moon
$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ To the Moon, each day one day closer.
@MrProphecy: IF U DONT LET US GO TO THE MOON, WE WILL BRING THE MOON TO THE EARTH, UR CHOICE. $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@deluxe bean: SONG OF THE DAY - ROCKETEER
HERE WE GO, COME WITH ME,
THERE'S A WORLD OUT THERE THAT WE SHOULD SEE,
TAKE MY HAND, CLOSE YOUR EYES
WITH YOU RIGHT HERE, IM A ROCKETEER
@Smoke-A-Shotgun: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ Sailor moon. Sail to the moon
@Ilona: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ @
@Art20: $Vinco Ventures (BBIG.US)$ Don‘t stop keep going up to the moon!
@kalil: The battle for 45 is real today lol AMC
@HedgieHeadHunter: #ApeDestiny $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
#ApesAssemble
#ApesDontShortApes
#HedgieHeadHuntersGuild
#NoPaperHandsClub
I officially announce Sep 17 to be "to the moon festival"!
Just kidding, the real moon festival is on September 21. Hope every mooers can have a bumper harvest in the market.
@popYOUNG: Happy Mid-Autumn Festival
Leave some memes about "moon" in the comment section. We will pick 10 mooers and give you 100 points as rewards.
That's all, have a great holiday! peace!
Let's take a look at their "leap of faith".
@Soulforger: To The Moon!
@Orlagh $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ Just waiting for that trip to the moon
$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ To the Moon, each day one day closer.
@MrProphecy: IF U DONT LET US GO TO THE MOON, WE WILL BRING THE MOON TO THE EARTH, UR CHOICE. $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
@deluxe bean: SONG OF THE DAY - ROCKETEER
HERE WE GO, COME WITH ME,
THERE'S A WORLD OUT THERE THAT WE SHOULD SEE,
TAKE MY HAND, CLOSE YOUR EYES
WITH YOU RIGHT HERE, IM A ROCKETEER
@Smoke-A-Shotgun: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ Sailor moon. Sail to the moon
@Ilona: $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ @
@Art20: $Vinco Ventures (BBIG.US)$ Don‘t stop keep going up to the moon!
@kalil: The battle for 45 is real today lol AMC
@HedgieHeadHunter: #ApeDestiny $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
#ApesAssemble
#ApesDontShortApes
#HedgieHeadHuntersGuild
#NoPaperHandsClub
I officially announce Sep 17 to be "to the moon festival"!
Just kidding, the real moon festival is on September 21. Hope every mooers can have a bumper harvest in the market.
@popYOUNG: Happy Mid-Autumn Festival
Leave some memes about "moon" in the comment section. We will pick 10 mooers and give you 100 points as rewards.
That's all, have a great holiday! peace!
![MooHumor: The same festival? What a coincidence.](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1631884950421-77777000-android-org.gif/thumb)
![MooHumor: The same festival? What a coincidence.](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1631884950447-77777000-android-org.gif/thumb)
![MooHumor: The same festival? What a coincidence.](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1631884950511-77777000-android-org.png/thumb)
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