Interesting that on the day that Ukrainian forces, after getting the okay from lame duck US President Joe Biden, would launch US missiles from territory still under its control at Russian military bases inside of Russian territory, that markets would open on weakness and gain strength from there? Hmmm. Who would have thought that on the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed new doctrine covering Moscow's possible use of nuclear weapons, thus reducing the...

Maybe. Maybe not. There were headlines that broke at Bloomberg and elsewhere as the zero-hours passed this morning, that Ukraine's armed forces had carried out their first strikes on Russian territory using US Army ATACMS armaments. Possibly in response, as I am not sure which came first, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a revision to his nation's nuclear doctrine.
The new declaration states that a conventional attack on Russia by any nation t...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke publicly from Dallas on Thursday afternoon. Powell made a speech and then participated in a moderated discussion. He was, in my opinion, quite clear in that he used this appearance to create some optionality for the FOMC in terms of the trajectory for monetary policy over the next few months. To put it more succinctly, Powell is no longer sure that short-term interest rates need to go lower.
Powell stated, "The economy is not sending any si...

On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite posted its third consecutive red daily candle, while the S&P 500 put up its second losing session in three. On Friday morning, US equities sold off further. The base of consolidation that we, as investors, had been seeking, has clearly arrived. Does this development across US financial markets end up looking like the pause that refreshes, or has our marketplace started to price in new worries?
The question is a valid one. Since the national ...

The news is old at this point. More than twenty-four hours ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the agency's data for October consumer level inflation. Everything hit the tape as expected. One a month over month basis, the headline print landed at growth of 0.2% for a fourth straight month, while core inflation printed at growth of 0.3% for a third straight month. On a year over year basis, headline inflation accelerated from 2.4% growth in September to 2.6%, while core inf...

The S&P 500 closed on Monday up 25.8% year to date for 2024. This came on the heels of a 24% rally for the previous full year, 2023. According to research published by Deutsche Bank on Monday, If the S&P 500 holds onto at least a 20% full year gain for 2024, it would only mark the third time ever, really since the conception of the S&P 500's ancestor index that the broadest and most focused upon measure of US large cap equity perfroamnce was able to post back-to-back ...

US Bond markets are closed today for Veterans Day. Equity markets are open, buisness as usual.

The week ahead will be busier in terms of macroeconomic releases and high-profile corporate earnings than was last week. Then, there will be the plethora of fed speakers that will crawl out of their holes publicly now that we are past the election and last week's policy meeting.
On the macro side, October CPI is due this Wednesday. Coming off of the 2.4% year over year growth print for September, most of the street is up around 2.6% for this release. October Producer Prices w...

According to FactSet, which is the service that readers know I rely on for all things earnings-related, third quarter results have continued to improve from where they were. Currently, for the third quarter, with 91% of the S&P 500 having reported, earnings are showing blended (results & expectations) year over year growth rate of 5.3% up from 5.1% a week ago and 3.6% the week prior. Revenue growth is currently running at a blended growth rate of 5.5%, up from 5.2% last week.
R...

The "Trump Trade" keeps on rolling, or is this portion of the current rally more of a "Fed Trade?" Regardless of what was behind the action on Thursday, it was not quite as convincing as had been the first two days of said rally. There was decent demand for US Treasury debt securities for a nice change, which did shake a few trees on the equity side.
The yield of the US Ten Year Note dropped ten basis points for the regular session, going out at 4.33%, while the US Two Y...