$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
When buying long-term Treasury bonds, you need to think about whether you want to earn interest or spreads.
If you want to earn interest, then you keep lying down for the time being. If inflation is expected to be 2%, then the dividend rate is greater than 2, and your money will not depreciate.
If you want to make a spread, it may not be achieved this year. Given the current economic situation, the reversal of the short-term interest rate is bound to reverse. If the year-end decline is really only two digits, the 2y-10y cross is likely to be greater than 4.5. Now at 4.4% for 10 years, where else can TLT fall?
If you think the US won't go soft, now is the entry point. Think carefully that the yield curve has been upside down for more than 20 months and is down 46 points, and the yield curve is no longer a harbinger of recession?
In conclusion, buyers of long-term bonds will not lose for 20 years, unless the United States dies.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
短期风险很大。
2y和10y利率的倒挂，有三种修复方式：
1. 软着陆，通胀持续降温，美联储缓慢降息，最终us2y逐渐向下，us10y逐渐上升，解除倒挂。之后2y10y同步随着通胀降温而下降，短期利空tlt，长期利好。
2. 硬着陆，金融或地产突然暴雷，美联储紧急救市，us2y迅速下降，解除倒挂，tlt暴涨。
3. 不着陆，通胀根本不降温，经济也不衰退，美联储因为不想继续加息来破坏经济，就只能放弃2%的目标，允许通胀率保持在3%以上。利率和通胀都僵持在高位较长时间。进而长债利率飙升、超过短债，解除倒挂。tlt虽然不会暴跌，但是因为不降息就不会涨，只有3-4%的股息收益而已，回报率跑输其他投资。但32万亿的负债，4%以上的利率，美国政府能撑多久，我持怀疑态度，最终恐怕会导致美国政府资不抵债，无力偿还高额利息。要么破产，要么回到无限放水放纵恶性通胀。让全经济和金融崩溃来买单，这个可能性基本为零。
我认最后一种的可能性不大，迟早得降息的，所以tlt的长期投资逻辑还在，短期可能逆风。这两...