Since August, changes in U.S. employment and inflation data have led to a continuous strengthening of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. As of September 2nd, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped by 62 basis points from its peak at the beginning of July, falling to 3.862%. The significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily due to disappointing non-farm em...

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by Jinta Hong, CFA
Concerns about Trumpflation
Though Donald Trump promised to end the inflation nightmare, many economists warn that his policies could, in fact, increase the upside inflation risk, termd "Trumpflation". This is attributed to several factors, including his 2.0 policies of tariff, tax, immigration, and monetary. According to the latest polls by FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris (47.1%) and Donald Trump (43.6%) remained statis...

By Jinta Hong, CFA
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) 2024, held from Aug 19 to 22 in Chicago, has been a remarkable event, featuring speeches from prominent figures in the Democratic Party. Here’s a recap of key moments, including speeches from Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and the Obama couple.
However, during the same period, an 66-year-old Arizona man, Ronald Syvrud,...

The recent buzz surrounding former U.S. President Donald Trump has heightened expectations of his potential victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. As a result, the market has once again witnessed the emergence of the "Trump Trade."
For the first time, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds has exceeded that on 2-year bonds, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices have collectively risen, and the pric...