United States announced July 26, 2024core PCEThe result was 2.6% compared to 2.6% the previous month.
ThisStock depreciationIt's a factor.
By falling pricesConsumer desire to buyIt has been stimulated, making it difficult for prices to fall.
unemployment rateIn the current situation where it is risingcore PCEIt is contradictory that it is reluctant to decline.
There are times when commodity prices, starting with crude oil, skyrocketed and boosted the price index.
Currently, commodity prices are stable, so this is not a factor driving up prices.
Consumers' desire to buy is healthyunemployment rateIt won't go up and the interest rate cut period will go backwards.
ThisStock depreciationIt's a factor.
FRBAs a precautionary measureInterest rate cutsThe possibility of executing is undeniable.
The most feared situation is after interest rate cutsunemployment rateIt means speeding up.
If we were to fall into this situation, stock prices would crash drastically.
Conversely, after interest rate cutsunemployment rateIf it falls, stock prices will rise.
If interest rates are cut under these circumstances, there is a high probability that inflation will be rekindled, so I think it will be difficult to cut interest rates.
What is the main reason that reduces consumers' desire to buymortgage interest ratesIt's at a standstill high.
If the house doesn't sellrentsIf it rises and houses don't sell, the liquidity of the economy will slow down....

The US presidential election officially kicks off on November 5. Now that the party representative election is over, the Democratic Party candidate President Biden and the Republican Party candidate former President Trump have each been nominated, and the two that competed in the 2020 presidential election will face off again. According to opinion polls, the current approval ratings for Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are almost equal. Looking at the overall results, the approval ratings for both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have not exceeded half, and Mr. Trump is only 1% in the lead.
It is an aging confrontation between 81-year-old incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who finished his 78th birthday the day before, but there are many intense disputes full of highlights. On 6/27 at 9:00 p.m. EST (6/28 10:00 a.m. Japan time), the 1st debate session of the oldest pair of election debaters in US history will be held. What is noteworthy is that the candidate's performance at the debate has a big impact on approval ratings.
The confrontation between the two sides in terms of policy stance became clear, and stock market movements due to elections were also “instantly triggered.” Check out the list of industries and stocks that are likely to benefit from the election results!
● Shares related to Mr. Biden's election
Electricity based on electrification policies...

Announced at 23:00 on 2024/6/25Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexResults for the previous month 101.3100.4It was.
Albeit slightlyshrinksI did.
Because this will be material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexA decrease in interest rates encourages interest rate cutsStock heightIt hasn't reached.
The reasonCPIThis is because it has not led to a decrease.
whyConsumer Confidence IndexWhen it decreasesStock heightWill it lead to?
This is because prices drop when consumers refrain from shopping and run to savings.
The currentCPIOKpremiums・Housing expenses・Service pricesIt has remained high.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexIt is flying at a low altitude, peaking at 128.9, which was announced on 2021/6/29.
Even in this stateCPIConsidering that it cannot even step into the 2% range, prices will continue to rise,Interest rate cutsIt is judged that it is far away.
What is the US economysoft landingSince we are starting to move towards it, it is natural that prices are unlikely to fall.
soft landingOKunemployment ratePrices are lowered while suppressing increases, so it takes time.
If you want to lower pricesPolicy interest rateIt's just a matter of raising it to 6% ,7%...

Announced at 23:00 on 2024/6/5ISM Non-Manufacturing Business IndexThe result is 49.4 of the previous month53.8It was.
This is data for 5 months.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business IndexIt has been falling for 3 consecutive months, but the decline in numerical values has stopped due to this increase.
What is the US marketInterest rate cutsExpectations are growing. Economic indicators showing a booming economy like this oneStock depreciationIt's a factor.
butISM Non-Manufacturing Business IndexIf you take a look at what's inside
Business Activity Index:61.2%
New Order Index:54.1%
Employment Index:47.1%
Supplier Delivery Index:52.7%
Other than the employment indexYou can see that it's strong.
This index is divided into a boom or a recession starting at 50.
The economy is strongEmployment is weakI like the market price.
It was announced at 21:15 on the same dayNumber of ADP employees (month-on-month)Also, results against 188,000 last month152,000 peopleand employment is getting worse.
This became material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.

The United States announced at 21:30 on May 31, 2024Core PCE (YoY)The result is 2.8% of the previous month2.8%It was.
This is data for the previous month of 4 months.
February, March, and April (this time) for 3 consecutive monthsstagnationIt is.
Personal savings rateIs the same as the previous month3.6%It is.
Personal savings rateIt fell moderately from 2023/5/5.3% (announced in June), and the current value3.6%It is.
The US economy is on an inflationary trendSteadyIt is.
core PCEWe are far from reaching our target of 2%. The reasonsoft landingThis is because there is a high possibility.
BoomPrices are unlikely to fall when they are maintained. Even so, they are trying to lower prices, so it is theoretically contradictory.
BoomWhy is it possible to lower prices while maintaining? When I sayunemployment rateAdjust it by raising it little by little.
pricesWhen it comes to why (including services) is expensive, it's because there are many people who spend money.
unemploymentIf you do, the amount of money you spend will decrease. ThisInflation has subsidedIt contributes to Strictly speaking, fewer people spend money, so the number of unemployed people will increase, and the number of people who spend money will also decrease.
Personal savings rateSaying that it is on a downward trend of 3.6% means that things are expensive...