$Cboe SKEW Index(.SKEW.US$
In terms of indicators, it's an abnormal value and suggests a decline after 3 to 5 months, but everyone doesn't care 😅
In terms of indicators, it's an abnormal value and suggests a decline after 3 to 5 months, but everyone doesn't care 😅
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$Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund(DBC.US$
If the recession comes next year, it would be rewarded if I bought it, I don't know what to buy for commodities, but I don't worry if this is the case
If the recession comes next year, it would be rewarded if I bought it, I don't know what to buy for commodities, but I don't worry if this is the case
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$Starbucks(SBUX.US$
There's still a long way to go, but it seems like Starbucks, which everyone knows around the world, is in 200 weeks
If there is a bullish strategy to increase the number of stores to the target of about 20,000 stores in China and India, I would like to make a consultation purchase.
There's still a long way to go, but it seems like Starbucks, which everyone knows around the world, is in 200 weeks
If there is a bullish strategy to increase the number of stores to the target of about 20,000 stores in China and India, I would like to make a consultation purchase.
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
Expectations for interest rate cuts that are more than expected have gone too far, interest rates have declined rapidly, and the tightening of financial relations is loosening.
Is this what the Fed wants? Paradoxically, if interest rates go too far in anticipation of interest rate cuts, wouldn't the possibility of FED interest rate hikes increase as a warning to the market?
The only thing that affirms lower interest rates is employment, so the unemployment rate becomes even more important.
Declines in inflation are now commonplace and will remain high, so be wary of declines when upward movements are observed
Expectations for interest rate cuts that are more than expected have gone too far, interest rates have declined rapidly, and the tightening of financial relations is loosening.
Is this what the Fed wants? Paradoxically, if interest rates go too far in anticipation of interest rate cuts, wouldn't the possibility of FED interest rate hikes increase as a warning to the market?
The only thing that affirms lower interest rates is employment, so the unemployment rate becomes even more important.
Declines in inflation are now commonplace and will remain high, so be wary of declines when upward movements are observed
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$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$
Friday's lowest price, down about 18% from the most recent high, then 2% to enter the bear market
・A beautiful neck formed by Sanson on a weekly basis
・Interest rates on 10-year bonds are still high
Could it be that institutional investors are shorting government bonds and not making money by shorting Russell 2000?
are you going to push ahead by avoiding the bear market at the last minute?
Are you going to get in Bear?
While adjusting the short position as usual
It's neutral now, isn't it?
Friday's lowest price, down about 18% from the most recent high, then 2% to enter the bear market
・A beautiful neck formed by Sanson on a weekly basis
・Interest rates on 10-year bonds are still high
Could it be that institutional investors are shorting government bonds and not making money by shorting Russell 2000?
are you going to push ahead by avoiding the bear market at the last minute?
Are you going to get in Bear?
While adjusting the short position as usual
It's neutral now, isn't it?
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$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$
There was a big rise yesterday against interest rates. I was able to make a profit when I often shorted while watching over 10 years of US government bonds...
I think the market probably judged that government bonds of 10 years or more had bottomed out (personal capital inflow into long-term ETFs at the past level 1 level) and that retail was good was also well received.
Certainly, even from the FED and the US government, I don't think 5% of 30 years of interest on regional banks or debt is acceptable (recently, pigeon support from senior FED officials), and everyone is thinking about it properly.
However, when I compared the chart with 10-year US bonds, the inverse correlation was delayed by about 1W, so why was the short position maintained for a while?
Pay attention to the canaries in the coal mine. (SOXX is a true canary, but...)
There was a big rise yesterday against interest rates. I was able to make a profit when I often shorted while watching over 10 years of US government bonds...
I think the market probably judged that government bonds of 10 years or more had bottomed out (personal capital inflow into long-term ETFs at the past level 1 level) and that retail was good was also well received.
Certainly, even from the FED and the US government, I don't think 5% of 30 years of interest on regional banks or debt is acceptable (recently, pigeon support from senior FED officials), and everyone is thinking about it properly.
However, when I compared the chart with 10-year US bonds, the inverse correlation was delayed by about 1W, so why was the short position maintained for a while?
Pay attention to the canaries in the coal mine. (SOXX is a true canary, but...)
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
1. Core CPI is better than expected and falls below the 3.6% year-end target
2. The unemployment rate will rise to 4.2% or higher
3. How many banks have gone bankrupt
4. Financial results are poor across the board
If we don't do that, interest rates on government bonds will remain high and stock prices are likely to be squeezed. I don't think 4 is yet, so 1 is the best scenario as the opposite of 4, but since Jiro's numerical value has dropped since August, it seems like it should be 4... is it still reflected?
1. Core CPI is better than expected and falls below the 3.6% year-end target
2. The unemployment rate will rise to 4.2% or higher
3. How many banks have gone bankrupt
4. Financial results are poor across the board
If we don't do that, interest rates on government bonds will remain high and stock prices are likely to be squeezed. I don't think 4 is yet, so 1 is the best scenario as the opposite of 4, but since Jiro's numerical value has dropped since August, it seems like it should be 4... is it still reflected?
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$Japan 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(JP10Y.BD$
While interest rates have risen in the US, Europe, and other countries around the world, Japan has maintained negative interest rates.
If this is the case, there is nothing we can do about it when the yen is under strong pressure, so I think it would be better to cancel negative interest rates. Rather, it was too late.
Because when the yen is under pressure, it would be good to return it again
While interest rates have risen in the US, Europe, and other countries around the world, Japan has maintained negative interest rates.
If this is the case, there is nothing we can do about it when the yen is under strong pressure, so I think it would be better to cancel negative interest rates. Rather, it was too late.
Because when the yen is under pressure, it would be good to return it again
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It has been confirmed that the upstream generation AI is exclusive to NVIDIA, and there are not that many products with high added value, won by one person.
Considering NVIDIA's monopoly state of GPUs and the large development cycle of GPUs for 4 years, it seems that NVIDIA will continue to win one-man for generative AI equipment for a while. NVIDIA has an overwhelming technological advantage
A truly disruptive innovation
When one person wins, it means that the number of companies that lose will increase because of that, so I think the map of the semiconductor industry will also change.
NVIDIA's stock prices are often high, so I have an idea to buy AMD, Micron, etc., but how about that?
The stock price has dropped due to profit-taking sales and some shorting at the target stock price of $500, but I don't think this level of profit is a high price at all.
Considering NVIDIA's monopoly state of GPUs and the large development cycle of GPUs for 4 years, it seems that NVIDIA will continue to win one-man for generative AI equipment for a while. NVIDIA has an overwhelming technological advantage
A truly disruptive innovation
When one person wins, it means that the number of companies that lose will increase because of that, so I think the map of the semiconductor industry will also change.
NVIDIA's stock prices are often high, so I have an idea to buy AMD, Micron, etc., but how about that?
The stock price has dropped due to profit-taking sales and some shorting at the target stock price of $500, but I don't think this level of profit is a high price at all.
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$Texas Instruments(TXN.US$
Sales and profits have been tough for a while due to the slump in the Chinese economy, but isn't it time to buy?
ADI is likely to drop due to financial results, and if it goes down at the timing of easy travel
Buy it little by little, starting around $160.
The dividends aren't bad, and I think it's a good buy.
Sales and profits have been tough for a while due to the slump in the Chinese economy, but isn't it time to buy?
ADI is likely to drop due to financial results, and if it goes down at the timing of easy travel
Buy it little by little, starting around $160.
The dividends aren't bad, and I think it's a good buy.
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KOJIKOJIOP : The last time this abnormal value was set was on January 6, 2021. There was certainly a big drop after that.