$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Still looking solid to me as the demand is going strong. I'd just buy the dip but my cash position is quite low right now, so might sell other positions to buy it if it drops to a super cheap price.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$
All signs since the end of 2023 indicate that taiwan semiconductor is entering its best period, based on the following four main arguments:
1. From the three-way competition in high-end processes to taiwan semiconductor's basic monopoly.
2. The scale law of AI large models brings huge demand for ai chips.
Moving towards chiplet in high-end chips, taiwan semiconductor expands from front end to full packaged chip business.
Intense competition among terminal chip design companies, with Taiwan Semiconductor stably earning money in the middle. x86/Arm/Risk-V market chaos, MediaTek catching up with Qualcomm in mobile chip, and an increasingly fierce competition between Intel and AMD in the CPU field. Although leading significantly in AI chips, Nvidia faces fierce competition as major players collaborate with Broadcom/Marvell for customized chips on a large scale.
The four major trends are likely to continue over the next 3-5 years, making it the best era for Taiwan Semiconductor!

$SMIC (00981.HK)$
From a PE perspective, SMIC's valuation is definitely not cheap. However, for a company in a massive investment catch-up phase, with significant equipment depreciation and research and development expenses reducing profits, it is more appropriate to value using PB/PS ratios.
In the current situation of technological blockade, SMIC is the TSMC of the mainland, and for a long time, it is the only one. It is understandable to compare the valuation of A-shares to TSMC; in the context of the mainland dominated trend in the Hong Kong stock market, it is also reasonable to approach the valuation towards TSMC.
TSMC's reasonable valuation range over the past 10 years is approximately PS 7-13, and PB is roughly 4-8 times.
In 2024, the overall semiconductor market started to improve, with SMIC's growth rate in 2024 likely to be around 25%, generating approximately $7.5 billion in revenue; in 2025, growth could accelerate by another 25% to $10 billion, considering the intensity of SMIC's previous capacity expansion, it may be even higher.
Based on the 2025 revenue of 10 billion US dollars, the reasonable valuation range for Taiwan Semiconductor is 70-130 billion US dollars, with a P/S ratio of 7-13 times. The reasonable valuation for A shares is in the range of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB. In a bullish market, the basic valuation could exceed 1 trillion RMB, while the market cap of Hong Kong stocks could exceed 600 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Regarding the impact of geopolitics, the technology blockade and sanctions by the USA have basically taken effect on SMIC, and any tactics that can be used essentially have no practical impact on SMIC; the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector has made rapid progress, from 2019 to 2020...

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$
July 2024 analyst expectations:
2024 EPS: 6.5 USD, 22-40PE = 145-260
2025 EPS: 8.25 USD. 20-30PE = 165-250
2026 EPS: 10 USD, 17-22PE = 170-220

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