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Palm oil prices rose sharply, but don't be too happy too soon Analyst: It may fall back in December.
Data shows a possible sharp drop in December. Don't get too excited about the soaring palm oil prices.
(Kuala Lumpur, 12th) Despite the recent surge in palm oil prices to over RM 5000 per ton, motivating some investment banks to be bullish on the prospects of planting industry stocks, some brokerages still view the palm oil outlook cautiously and point out that palm oil prices may significantly decline by the end of this year, hence temporarily maintaining a 'neutral' rating.
Datuk Securities analyst pointed out that palm oil prices have now exceeded RM 5000 per ton, about 15% higher than last month, possibly due to reduced supply and trade tensions between China and the USA.
Palm oil production declined due to seasonal factors, coupled with inventory declines and Indonesia's implementation of a higher proportion of B40 biodiesel mandates next year, the market expects palm oil supply to decrease, pushing up prices.
At the same time, the analyst estimated that China may panic buy soybeans before Trump is re-elected as President of the USA and increases tariffs on Chinese goods, which may have led to the recent rise in palm oil prices.
However, we believe that the potential trade friction between China and the USA in the future months will not significantly affect China's soybean import volume. During Trump's previous term in office, the policy of taxing China took 6 months from announcement to implementation, so any new related policies will only have an impact next year.
Significant decline in exports in early November.
He also cited data from Intertek and Amspec, showing that our country's palm oil exports in the first ten days of November dropped significantly by around 15% compared to the previous month, indicating that...
(Kuala Lumpur, 12th) Despite the recent surge in palm oil prices to over RM 5000 per ton, motivating some investment banks to be bullish on the prospects of planting industry stocks, some brokerages still view the palm oil outlook cautiously and point out that palm oil prices may significantly decline by the end of this year, hence temporarily maintaining a 'neutral' rating.
Datuk Securities analyst pointed out that palm oil prices have now exceeded RM 5000 per ton, about 15% higher than last month, possibly due to reduced supply and trade tensions between China and the USA.
Palm oil production declined due to seasonal factors, coupled with inventory declines and Indonesia's implementation of a higher proportion of B40 biodiesel mandates next year, the market expects palm oil supply to decrease, pushing up prices.
At the same time, the analyst estimated that China may panic buy soybeans before Trump is re-elected as President of the USA and increases tariffs on Chinese goods, which may have led to the recent rise in palm oil prices.
However, we believe that the potential trade friction between China and the USA in the future months will not significantly affect China's soybean import volume. During Trump's previous term in office, the policy of taxing China took 6 months from announcement to implementation, so any new related policies will only have an impact next year.
Significant decline in exports in early November.
He also cited data from Intertek and Amspec, showing that our country's palm oil exports in the first ten days of November dropped significantly by around 15% compared to the previous month, indicating that...
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(Kuala Lumpur, 8th News) Due to the tightening supply and the rise in soybean oil, it droveCrude palm oil futuresto open high and rise today, breaking through 5000 ringgit to reach a new high in over two years.
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange's January 2025 benchmark futures closed up 148 ringgit or 2.99% at 5100 ringgit per metric ton, marking the highest level since mid-2022.
Palm oil futures rose by 4.77% this week, marking the third consecutive week of increase. They rose by 7.32% last week, and by 6.60% the week before.
Palm oil has risen more than 30% so far this year due to the expected growth in demand from the biodiesel industry. The growth in palm oil production is constrained by factors such as weather and aging trees; limited supply of sunflower and rapeseed globally also boosts palm oil demand.
Soybean oil futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged by 4.3% yesterday.
Prominent trader Mitri stated at a palm oil conference that palm oil prices will be at 5,000 ringgit per metric ton until June due to tight supply and demand from biodiesel.
Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Department's bioenergy supervisor Eddie Webowo said at an industry conference on Thursday that the Indonesian government proposed to increase the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% by 2028.
The Indian Oil Association stated that favorable weather may promote domestic oilseed production, and India's plant oil import volume will decrease to 15 million tons in the 2024/2025 fiscal year.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue a statement next Monday regarding the...
Malaysia Derivatives Exchange's January 2025 benchmark futures closed up 148 ringgit or 2.99% at 5100 ringgit per metric ton, marking the highest level since mid-2022.
Palm oil futures rose by 4.77% this week, marking the third consecutive week of increase. They rose by 7.32% last week, and by 6.60% the week before.
Palm oil has risen more than 30% so far this year due to the expected growth in demand from the biodiesel industry. The growth in palm oil production is constrained by factors such as weather and aging trees; limited supply of sunflower and rapeseed globally also boosts palm oil demand.
Soybean oil futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged by 4.3% yesterday.
Prominent trader Mitri stated at a palm oil conference that palm oil prices will be at 5,000 ringgit per metric ton until June due to tight supply and demand from biodiesel.
Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Department's bioenergy supervisor Eddie Webowo said at an industry conference on Thursday that the Indonesian government proposed to increase the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% by 2028.
The Indian Oil Association stated that favorable weather may promote domestic oilseed production, and India's plant oil import volume will decrease to 15 million tons in the 2024/2025 fiscal year.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue a statement next Monday regarding the...
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The Federal Reserve is scheduled hold FOMC meeting and press conference on November 7. This is crucial for the future trajectory of the U.S. and global economy.
The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.2% month-over-month in September. Excluding food and energy, the September PCE price index rose 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. On ...
The Federal Reserve is scheduled hold FOMC meeting and press conference on November 7. This is crucial for the future trajectory of the U.S. and global economy.
The Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.2% month-over-month in September. Excluding food and energy, the September PCE price index rose 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. On ...
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This article is from: Finance World.AITelegram
Effin Investment Bank analyst Yan Huiling stated in a report that due to tight supply, palm oil prices may rise in 2025.Palm oilprices may rise. She predicts that the average price of palm oil next year will be 4250 Malaysian Ringgit per ton, while the current average spot price for nine months is 4003 Malaysian Ringgit per ton. She believes that IndiaDieselThe increase in consumption and export restrictions are expected to reduce the export of crude palm oil and push prices up. She also added that EU countries may increase their purchases before the EU Timber Regulation, which is set to take effect by the end of 2025. Affin Investment Bank has upgraded its rating on Malaysia's planting industry from Neutral to Shareholding. The bank has identified Kuala Lumpur's Kajang as its top pick due to the company's young oil palm trees and strong profit recovery in downstream business.
Effin Investment Bank analyst Yan Huiling stated in a report that due to tight supply, palm oil prices may rise in 2025.Palm oilprices may rise. She predicts that the average price of palm oil next year will be 4250 Malaysian Ringgit per ton, while the current average spot price for nine months is 4003 Malaysian Ringgit per ton. She believes that IndiaDieselThe increase in consumption and export restrictions are expected to reduce the export of crude palm oil and push prices up. She also added that EU countries may increase their purchases before the EU Timber Regulation, which is set to take effect by the end of 2025. Affin Investment Bank has upgraded its rating on Malaysia's planting industry from Neutral to Shareholding. The bank has identified Kuala Lumpur's Kajang as its top pick due to the company's young oil palm trees and strong profit recovery in downstream business.
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Columns The planting industry is soaring against the wind, with the leading SDG breaking a two-year high.
$SDG (5285.MY)$
#Steady growth is better than rapid growth.
In the past few weeks, sentiment in the Malaysian stock market has been low, and now everyone is focused on the USA presidential election. However, with CPO prices breaking a two-year high, the long-forgotten planting stocks are once again attracting hot money.
In the first half of 2022, the planting industry sector was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to historically high CPO prices boosting palm oil stocks. Unfortunately, the cycle was very short-lived, rising for two quarters before entering a decline. In 2023, the planting industry sector's profits declined year-on-year, and planting stocks are in a consolidation period.
In the first half of 2024, many high-quality planting stocks have achieved year-on-year profit growth. Combined with Indonesia's declining production capacity due to weather issues, the Indonesian government is promoting B35 diesel while moving towards B40 in 2025.
Global palm oil inventory is at a 3-year low, supported by various factors pushing CPO prices to break through a 2-year high. However, palm oil prices rising too quickly may not be a good thing; when the Malaysian Ringgit rose too fast before, the pullback was severe.
For the planting industry, assuming that the CPO price can stabilize at RM4,500 or above, a gradual rise would be healthier. The planting area in Malaysia is limited to 6.5 million hectares, so increasing production efficiency and enhancing automation to reduce reliance on foreign labor is urgent.
In recent years, palm oil production capacity has reached a bottleneck, while demand for palm oil production capacity is gradually increasing, which is bullish for the palm oil sector. However, various challenges such as eco-friendly issues, minimum wages, fertilizer transportation...
#Steady growth is better than rapid growth.
In the past few weeks, sentiment in the Malaysian stock market has been low, and now everyone is focused on the USA presidential election. However, with CPO prices breaking a two-year high, the long-forgotten planting stocks are once again attracting hot money.
In the first half of 2022, the planting industry sector was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to historically high CPO prices boosting palm oil stocks. Unfortunately, the cycle was very short-lived, rising for two quarters before entering a decline. In 2023, the planting industry sector's profits declined year-on-year, and planting stocks are in a consolidation period.
In the first half of 2024, many high-quality planting stocks have achieved year-on-year profit growth. Combined with Indonesia's declining production capacity due to weather issues, the Indonesian government is promoting B35 diesel while moving towards B40 in 2025.
Global palm oil inventory is at a 3-year low, supported by various factors pushing CPO prices to break through a 2-year high. However, palm oil prices rising too quickly may not be a good thing; when the Malaysian Ringgit rose too fast before, the pullback was severe.
For the planting industry, assuming that the CPO price can stabilize at RM4,500 or above, a gradual rise would be healthier. The planting area in Malaysia is limited to 6.5 million hectares, so increasing production efficiency and enhancing automation to reduce reliance on foreign labor is urgent.
In recent years, palm oil production capacity has reached a bottleneck, while demand for palm oil production capacity is gradually increasing, which is bullish for the palm oil sector. However, various challenges such as eco-friendly issues, minimum wages, fertilizer transportation...
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Palm oil prices have reached a new high for the year, pay attention. Will this be the next theme?
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$CEPAT (8982.MY)$
The plantation industry is experiencing a rare surge. It belongs to a relatively warm sector.
With a one-year Dividend Yield of 5.5%. It's a good time to buy.
Palm oil has reached a new high of RM4556.50 for the year.
The plantation industry is experiencing a rare surge. It belongs to a relatively warm sector.
With a one-year Dividend Yield of 5.5%. It's a good time to buy.
Palm oil has reached a new high of RM4556.50 for the year.
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