As the March USA FOMC approaches, the financial markets have entered a heightened state of alert. Policymakers are faced with an unprecedentedly complex situation amidst many uncertainties. While evaluating the stubborn trends of inflation, responses to the ripple effects of policies introduced by the Trump administration are required. Although there are still signs of resilience in the economic fundamentals, persistent inflation, disruptions in trade policy, and data time lags are constraints on policy decision-making.
According to the latest data, the growth in February's non-farm payrolls and consumer price index fell short of expectations, suggesting a cooling labor market, but the core inflation rate in January rebounded more than expected, which indicates thatthe Federal Reserve still maintains a sense of caution.In particular, the core PCE index continues to exceed the 2% policy target,strengthening the position that "it is too early to ease".. On the other hand, the trade protectionist policies and fiscal stimulus that the Trump administration could implement arestirring concerns about rising supply chain costs and the resurgence of inflation.。The impact of tariff policy has not yet been fully reflected in economic data.Therefore, the FRB is evaluating the effects of policy...

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