MattSully
liked
Following the research results of today's (FTD), one of the greatest achievements of the late legendary Mr. O'Neal, its principle roughly revolves around the supply and demand relationship, using SPX Index trading volume and price to provide valuable feedback information for determination; since SPX was established in 1957, its backtest success rate is about 75%, and careful observation will reveal that most of its failures occur during major bear markets, with most gains of 2% or even 3% during periods of high volatility maintained by VIX; this provides later traders with a sufficiently high platform to stand on....
In the past two years, there have been three groups related to today, with a success rate of 100%, namely:
21/10/2022，06/01/2023，16/03/2023
02/11/2023，14/11/2023
As well as the recent dates of 13/08/2024 and 19/09/2024.
The above three instances with the current group have a valid period of approximately 4-8 months, and the final wave ends with a rapid climb above the 20-day moving average within 1-2 months.
Since August 13th, nearby to today:
SPY +10.48%
QQQ +13.34%
Double etf
SSO increased by 18.12%.
QLD increased by 23.16%.
Triple ETF
UPRO increased by 25.94%.
TQQQ +33.67%
These are all around FTD's huge advantages in ETF trading, and also my Trade in the market...
In the past two years, there have been three groups related to today, with a success rate of 100%, namely:
21/10/2022，06/01/2023，16/03/2023
02/11/2023，14/11/2023
As well as the recent dates of 13/08/2024 and 19/09/2024.
The above three instances with the current group have a valid period of approximately 4-8 months, and the final wave ends with a rapid climb above the 20-day moving average within 1-2 months.
Since August 13th, nearby to today:
SPY +10.48%
QQQ +13.34%
Double etf
SSO increased by 18.12%.
QLD increased by 23.16%.
Triple ETF
UPRO increased by 25.94%.
TQQQ +33.67%
These are all around FTD's huge advantages in ETF trading, and also my Trade in the market...
Translated
+2
9
2
MattSully
liked
Link to the third quarter of 2024👉🏻Summary of the third quarter of 2024
Monthly Earnings:
October profits are moderate, November profits significantly increased, December had a slight loss.
Quarterly Trendlines:
The fourth-quarter return is 37.79%, far higher than the SPX's 3.47%, benefiting from opportunistic markets and disciplined trading within the system.
Annual Trendlines:
The year-to-date return is 67.74%, higher than the SPX's 23.31%; mainly benefiting from a deep self-correction after being hit hard by the market from mid-July to early August. Since then, 100% discipline has been maintained in the trading system, except for not participating in the final quantum computing theme (multiple opportunities to trade quantum computing names appeared in my screener during that time, each time struggling with too large stop loss percentages and giving up). The rest of the major breakout themes such as BTC miners, AI, and small nuclear power have all been involved; the main three entry setups are VCP, flag consolidation, and buy at the end of an uptrend pullback; some experience has been accumulated for entering flags, but there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Top 5 in profit:
$NuScale Power (SMR.US)$
It was a total of one swing trade, with the entry set at the breakout of the highest point after flag consolidation for buying. Thanks to the tight initial stop-loss, I did not get shaken out and obtained a relatively large starting position. The three sales (1/3, 1/6, 1/2) were also a moderate systematic selling strategy, both in terms of strategy execution and feedback results, I am quite satisfied...
Monthly Earnings:
October profits are moderate, November profits significantly increased, December had a slight loss.
Quarterly Trendlines:
The fourth-quarter return is 37.79%, far higher than the SPX's 3.47%, benefiting from opportunistic markets and disciplined trading within the system.
Annual Trendlines:
The year-to-date return is 67.74%, higher than the SPX's 23.31%; mainly benefiting from a deep self-correction after being hit hard by the market from mid-July to early August. Since then, 100% discipline has been maintained in the trading system, except for not participating in the final quantum computing theme (multiple opportunities to trade quantum computing names appeared in my screener during that time, each time struggling with too large stop loss percentages and giving up). The rest of the major breakout themes such as BTC miners, AI, and small nuclear power have all been involved; the main three entry setups are VCP, flag consolidation, and buy at the end of an uptrend pullback; some experience has been accumulated for entering flags, but there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Top 5 in profit:
$NuScale Power (SMR.US)$
It was a total of one swing trade, with the entry set at the breakout of the highest point after flag consolidation for buying. Thanks to the tight initial stop-loss, I did not get shaken out and obtained a relatively large starting position. The three sales (1/3, 1/6, 1/2) were also a moderate systematic selling strategy, both in terms of strategy execution and feedback results, I am quite satisfied...
Translated
+15
38
3
MattSully
liked
Liquidation:
$Upstart (UPST.US)$ (-0.206%) Broke through the stop loss and exited on Monday, account loss of 0.206%.
$Eastman Kodak (KODK.US)$ (-0.31%) Broke through the stop loss and exited on Monday with oscillations, account loss of 0.31%.
$Reddit (RDDT.US)$ (+1.18%) On Thursday, it hit the hard stop loss and exited the market after shaking; actually, this name is still very strong, but being shaken out by a strong name has become a norm that traders often face, with an account profit of 1.18%.
$GameStop (GME.US)$ (-0.32%) On Thursday, it fell below the stop loss and exited the market after shaking, with an account loss of 0.32%.
Additional:
$Neonode (NEON.US)$ (0.3%) Mini name, bought on Friday breaking through the VCP pattern, currently making slight progress, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$ Attracted by not falling below 20MA for a long time (0.3%), I bought after a successful test of 20MA during the weekly pullback, and there has been some progress so far, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Lumentum (LITE.US)$ Bought on Friday after a pullback break through a dense trading range (0.3%), there has been some progress so far, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Peloton Interactive (PTON.US)$ In its...
$Upstart (UPST.US)$ (-0.206%) Broke through the stop loss and exited on Monday, account loss of 0.206%.
$Eastman Kodak (KODK.US)$ (-0.31%) Broke through the stop loss and exited on Monday with oscillations, account loss of 0.31%.
$Reddit (RDDT.US)$ (+1.18%) On Thursday, it hit the hard stop loss and exited the market after shaking; actually, this name is still very strong, but being shaken out by a strong name has become a norm that traders often face, with an account profit of 1.18%.
$GameStop (GME.US)$ (-0.32%) On Thursday, it fell below the stop loss and exited the market after shaking, with an account loss of 0.32%.
Additional:
$Neonode (NEON.US)$ (0.3%) Mini name, bought on Friday breaking through the VCP pattern, currently making slight progress, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$ Attracted by not falling below 20MA for a long time (0.3%), I bought after a successful test of 20MA during the weekly pullback, and there has been some progress so far, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Lumentum (LITE.US)$ Bought on Friday after a pullback break through a dense trading range (0.3%), there has been some progress so far, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Peloton Interactive (PTON.US)$ In its...
Translated
+8
20
MattSully
liked
Recently began organizing the names of settlements completed in the fourth quarter, in preparation for the quarterly summary of the fourth quarter, and discovered 3 interesting trades:
$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ Sell out when there are too many instances above the upper trendline...
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ $NextNav (NN.US)$ Both were sold out when approaching 10X ATR and exceeding 50-day moving average as final sell signals...
Although these 3 trades have shown good profits in terms of results (100%+, 50%+, 50%+), in practice, it has been proven that sell indicators such as observing indicators along the upper trendlines and using the ATR multiple extension relative to the 50MA appear weak in the face of truly strong names...
"No one is smarter than the 10/20MA" - Qullamagie
Respect to Qullamagie once again 🫡
Merry Christmas 🎄🎅🎁
$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ Sell out when there are too many instances above the upper trendline...
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ $NextNav (NN.US)$ Both were sold out when approaching 10X ATR and exceeding 50-day moving average as final sell signals...
Although these 3 trades have shown good profits in terms of results (100%+, 50%+, 50%+), in practice, it has been proven that sell indicators such as observing indicators along the upper trendlines and using the ATR multiple extension relative to the 50MA appear weak in the face of truly strong names...
"No one is smarter than the 10/20MA" - Qullamagie
Respect to Qullamagie once again 🫡
Merry Christmas 🎄🎅🎁
Translated
+1
19
1
MattSully
liked
Last week review 👉🏻Market review + Hold Positions (09/12-13/12 2024)
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Wednesdays.
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
ndx > spx > rut.
SPX and RUT have almost completely given back all the profits from the Trump campaign rally; NDX remains relatively resilient at this stage; NDX is still above the 50MA, closing near the 20MA on Friday, SPX barely closing above the 50MA, RUT returning to the chip accumulation zone before VCP; detailed preparation for the possibilities in both directions is still needed at this stage, uncertainty always accompanies the norm; the next two weeks are expected to have relatively dry trading volumes seasonally, perfect for in-depth chart work for the future, and proper relaxation of mind and body, personally will also enter vacation mode on an island.
Weekly Charts:
NDX remains above the 10MA, SPX closed near the 10MA, RUT temporarily successfully tested the 30MA; the uptrend is still intact.
Breadth:
From December 9th to December 19th, there was a massacre of breadth for 9 consecutive trading days. It is worth noting that the positive readings on the 18th and 19th were the two lowest values in the second half of the year, and the negative reading on the 19th was the lowest since the second half of the year...
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Wednesdays.
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Subscribe on Mondays and withdraw on Fridays, distribute on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
ndx > spx > rut.
SPX and RUT have almost completely given back all the profits from the Trump campaign rally; NDX remains relatively resilient at this stage; NDX is still above the 50MA, closing near the 20MA on Friday, SPX barely closing above the 50MA, RUT returning to the chip accumulation zone before VCP; detailed preparation for the possibilities in both directions is still needed at this stage, uncertainty always accompanies the norm; the next two weeks are expected to have relatively dry trading volumes seasonally, perfect for in-depth chart work for the future, and proper relaxation of mind and body, personally will also enter vacation mode on an island.
Weekly Charts:
NDX remains above the 10MA, SPX closed near the 10MA, RUT temporarily successfully tested the 30MA; the uptrend is still intact.
Breadth:
From December 9th to December 19th, there was a massacre of breadth for 9 consecutive trading days. It is worth noting that the positive readings on the 18th and 19th were the two lowest values in the second half of the year, and the negative reading on the 19th was the lowest since the second half of the year...
Translated
+19
20
MattSully
liked
Liquidation:
$PSQ Holdings (PSQH.US)$ After opening on Monday, the stop loss was tightened to break even, and the stop loss was triggered that day, resulting in a 0.046% loss in the account.
$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Achieving profits exceeding three times the stop loss on Monday, selling 1/3 of the position, and dropping below the original buy-in price on Tuesday, the remaining 2/3 of the position broke even and exited, resulting in a profit of 0.47% in the account.
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Dropped by -0.201% on Tuesday, breaking through the tightened stop loss to exit the account with a loss of 0.201%.
$Upstart (UPST.US)$ Dropped by +3.225% on Wednesday, breaking through the tightened stop loss, selling half of the remaining position, the account is profitable by 3.225%, considering buying back at low risk in the short term based on the chart structure.
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ Bought into the breakout of the dry congestion area on Wednesday, stopped out on the same day, account loss of 0.298%.
$Bakkt Holdings (BKKT.US)$ After the profit exceeded three times the stop loss on Monday, I sold one-third of the previously mistakenly bought position and one-third of the original position, and tightened the stop loss to Monday's low point. On Wednesday, I broke the stop loss and sold the remaining two-thirds of the position, with an account profit of 0.789%.
$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$ （+0.935%）...
$PSQ Holdings (PSQH.US)$ After opening on Monday, the stop loss was tightened to break even, and the stop loss was triggered that day, resulting in a 0.046% loss in the account.
$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Achieving profits exceeding three times the stop loss on Monday, selling 1/3 of the position, and dropping below the original buy-in price on Tuesday, the remaining 2/3 of the position broke even and exited, resulting in a profit of 0.47% in the account.
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ Dropped by -0.201% on Tuesday, breaking through the tightened stop loss to exit the account with a loss of 0.201%.
$Upstart (UPST.US)$ Dropped by +3.225% on Wednesday, breaking through the tightened stop loss, selling half of the remaining position, the account is profitable by 3.225%, considering buying back at low risk in the short term based on the chart structure.
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ Bought into the breakout of the dry congestion area on Wednesday, stopped out on the same day, account loss of 0.298%.
$Bakkt Holdings (BKKT.US)$ After the profit exceeded three times the stop loss on Monday, I sold one-third of the previously mistakenly bought position and one-third of the original position, and tightened the stop loss to Monday's low point. On Wednesday, I broke the stop loss and sold the remaining two-thirds of the position, with an account profit of 0.789%.
$Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US)$ （+0.935%）...
Translated
+13
20
MattSully
liked
Sell:
$BTC Digital (BTCT.US)$ (-0.309%) I exited the position by breaking the stop loss on Monday, and the account incurred a loss of 0.309%; the stop loss is prepared for low-probability events, which obviously is a low-probability event (a fast and sharp drop).
$GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US)$ (-0.299%) fell below the stop-loss and exited the market on Monday, resulting in a 0.299% account loss.
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ (+2.259%) From the time of purchase, 9 out of 10 days showed an upward trend. Respecting the pressure line on the weekly chart of the major cycle, chose to exit early when there was strength, sold 2/3 of the position on Monday, resulting in a 2.259% account profit; a fast and efficient trade.
$Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US)$ Try to buy the breakout above the 20MA with a 0.3% risk for three days on Monday, fell below the stop loss and exited on Tuesday, resulting in a loss of 0.373% in the account; the stop loss once again proved its value in preventing low-probability events, CAPR and BTCT, judging from the trading results, their contribution to the account is absolutely not weaker than those winning stocks that greatly benefited the account. 🙂.
$American Superconductor (AMSC.US)$ Buy the flag breakout on Monday (0.3%, -0.309%), and exit the stop loss on Tuesday, with the account...
$BTC Digital (BTCT.US)$ (-0.309%) I exited the position by breaking the stop loss on Monday, and the account incurred a loss of 0.309%; the stop loss is prepared for low-probability events, which obviously is a low-probability event (a fast and sharp drop).
$GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US)$ (-0.299%) fell below the stop-loss and exited the market on Monday, resulting in a 0.299% account loss.
$TheRealReal (REAL.US)$ (+2.259%) From the time of purchase, 9 out of 10 days showed an upward trend. Respecting the pressure line on the weekly chart of the major cycle, chose to exit early when there was strength, sold 2/3 of the position on Monday, resulting in a 2.259% account profit; a fast and efficient trade.
$Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US)$ Try to buy the breakout above the 20MA with a 0.3% risk for three days on Monday, fell below the stop loss and exited on Tuesday, resulting in a loss of 0.373% in the account; the stop loss once again proved its value in preventing low-probability events, CAPR and BTCT, judging from the trading results, their contribution to the account is absolutely not weaker than those winning stocks that greatly benefited the account. 🙂.
$American Superconductor (AMSC.US)$ Buy the flag breakout on Monday (0.3%, -0.309%), and exit the stop loss on Tuesday, with the account...
Translated
+14
25
1
MattSully
liked
Last week's review 👉🏻Market review + position holdings (18/11-22/11 2024)
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distributed on Monday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ And $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Accumulating on Monday.
rut>spx>ndx.
NDX has filled the gap above, current price above the 10MA, SPX and RUT both reached historical highs; biotechnology continues to rebound, current price returning to the previous large cap range, semiconductors attempting to rebound, current strength still appears weak, BTC continues to consolidate around 100,000 levels.
Weekly Charts:
The NDX and SPX continue to run smoothly in the second phase, while the RUT has entered the early stage of the second phase.
Market breadth:
Maintaining the green while gradually getting stronger.
Weekly Notes:
In the system's internal trading list, AFRM, TSLA, GME, UPST have slightly downgraded RS; GOVX has low RS with a tendency for more downgrades.
Market Sentiment:
AAII's bullish sentiment continues to cool, even slightly leaning towards bearish sentiment, with a small increase in the market feedback on Friday.
The fear index remains greedy, with the SPX price and options branch being extremely greedy.
Current positions held:
Among them, VERA, TVTX, INOD, and BTCT have already...
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Distributed on Monday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ And $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Accumulating on Monday.
rut>spx>ndx.
NDX has filled the gap above, current price above the 10MA, SPX and RUT both reached historical highs; biotechnology continues to rebound, current price returning to the previous large cap range, semiconductors attempting to rebound, current strength still appears weak, BTC continues to consolidate around 100,000 levels.
Weekly Charts:
The NDX and SPX continue to run smoothly in the second phase, while the RUT has entered the early stage of the second phase.
Market breadth:
Maintaining the green while gradually getting stronger.
Weekly Notes:
In the system's internal trading list, AFRM, TSLA, GME, UPST have slightly downgraded RS; GOVX has low RS with a tendency for more downgrades.
Market Sentiment:
AAII's bullish sentiment continues to cool, even slightly leaning towards bearish sentiment, with a small increase in the market feedback on Friday.
The fear index remains greedy, with the SPX price and options branch being extremely greedy.
Current positions held:
Among them, VERA, TVTX, INOD, and BTCT have already...
Translated
+31
41
1
MattSully
liked
Sell:
$FREYR Battery (FREY.US)$ (-0.536%) Broke through the stop loss and exited on Monday, with an account loss of 0.536%; Market stop-loss orders may occasionally result in excessive premium sales, which is beyond the trader's control, so there is no need to worry excessively.
$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$ (+0.469%) On Tuesday, prices simultaneously broke through the hard stop loss and 30MA, exiting the range, with an account profit of 0.469%.
Add:
$Innodata (INOD.US)$ In the consolidation phase of the strong upward trend (0.3%), a higher low was formed near the 20MA. Bought on Friday the candle that broke through the previous low point, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Vera Therapeutics (VERA.US)$ Bought the early 3T VCP breakout on Wednesday (0.3%), where the prices respected the 50MA, 30MA, 20MA levels, and there is a 9-month cup and handle consolidation structure on the weekly chart. Account risk is 0.3%.
$Travere Therapeutic (TVTX.US)$ In the high-level consolidation phase (0.3%), a higher low was formed. Bought on Tuesday the breakout of a tight small range above the moving averages, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$BTC Digital (BTCT.US)$ During the consolidation phase of the Flag formation, a higher...
$FREYR Battery (FREY.US)$ (-0.536%) Broke through the stop loss and exited on Monday, with an account loss of 0.536%; Market stop-loss orders may occasionally result in excessive premium sales, which is beyond the trader's control, so there is no need to worry excessively.
$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$ (+0.469%) On Tuesday, prices simultaneously broke through the hard stop loss and 30MA, exiting the range, with an account profit of 0.469%.
Add:
$Innodata (INOD.US)$ In the consolidation phase of the strong upward trend (0.3%), a higher low was formed near the 20MA. Bought on Friday the candle that broke through the previous low point, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$Vera Therapeutics (VERA.US)$ Bought the early 3T VCP breakout on Wednesday (0.3%), where the prices respected the 50MA, 30MA, 20MA levels, and there is a 9-month cup and handle consolidation structure on the weekly chart. Account risk is 0.3%.
$Travere Therapeutic (TVTX.US)$ In the high-level consolidation phase (0.3%), a higher low was formed. Bought on Tuesday the breakout of a tight small range above the moving averages, with an account risk of 0.3%.
$BTC Digital (BTCT.US)$ During the consolidation phase of the Flag formation, a higher...
Translated
+5
11
1
MattSully
liked
$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$Upward trend from May 16th to September 5th 👇
Focus on reviewing the amplitude of each pullback and the corresponding market performance during major events, while keeping an eye on your important moving averages.
"If you sell stocks too early when the market is hot, then you will need at least 10 years before you can retire. You will never be smarter than the 10/20-day moving averages." - @Qullamaggie
Focus on reviewing the amplitude of each pullback and the corresponding market performance during major events, while keeping an eye on your important moving averages.
"If you sell stocks too early when the market is hot, then you will need at least 10 years before you can retire. You will never be smarter than the 10/20-day moving averages." - @Qullamaggie
Translated
5
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