Three more business days left in the exciting and thrilling 2024, which was full of ups and downs. December was also exciting with Powell's Christmas sale, but as expected, it seems to end around 6000. The episodes of this year are coming to a close. So, let's take a look at the scenario for 2025 today.
The reason why I am bullish for 2025.
Roughly speaking, my forecast for the story of 2025 is that the S&P 500 will hit the 7000 mark at some point. If it ends around 6050 this year, that would be an increase of about 15%.
This is among the higher forecasts from Wall Street analysts. The main reasons I'm bullish are mainly twofold.
One is that wealthy investors around me and strategists from investment banks are concerned about valuations, expecting the market to go down or not rise much more.
Many investors around me are saying that they will buy in the first half after watching the timing when they enter 2025 and will not buy now.
I was the only one who bought stocks on the day when Nasdaq fell 3% during Powell's press conference. And when I reported 'I bought' in the chat, everyone was surprised.
Even the strategists are saying 'from here...

Looking at the short to medium term interest rates in Japanese Yen and US Dollar, it is almost certain that the Fed will cut rates and the Bank of Japan will raise rates. The market is expected to be seeing this, so I would like to organize the recent trading process.
In carry trade, it has been reasonable globally to borrow low-interest assets and invest in high-interest assets to make a profit. Therefore, it was logical to borrow the low-interest Yen and invest in the high-interest Dollar.
Considering the recent policy changes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the flow has reversed, leading to a stronger Yen and weaker Dollar, reaching levels around 140 Yen per Dollar. It is now considered theoretically optimal to sell Dollars and buy Yen. In the very short term, I believe that Tokyo's price index and personnel changes in the US new administration were significant factors driving this.
Even if the Japanese yen interest rate reaches 0.5% and the U.S. interest rate reaches 3.5%, there is still a 3% interest rate difference between the two, so it is not enough to completely reverse carry trades. Therefore, it is anticipated that temporary yen strength and dollar weakness will occur, but this is expected to be limited. Even if the interest rate difference between the two disappears in the future, it is expected to happen quite far in the future, and during that time, the relative interest rates...