The United States announced on July 16, 2024 at 21:30Retail revenue (compared to the previous month)Results decreased from 0.3% to 0.0% compared to the previous month.
This means a economic slowdown, serving as a material for interest rate cuts.Stocks are rising.This is the factor.
Core retail revenue (month-on-month)has risen to 0.4% from the previous month's 0.1%.
This is due to the expansion of consumption.stock market declineThis is the factor.
The contradictory result shows that automobiles are not included in the core retail revenue, hence the significant decline in automobile sales is evident.
Excluding automobile sales, the US economy can be considered strong.
As the US economy continues to perform well, the likelihood of a decrease in the unemployment rate increases.
Given the current market, with expectations of interest rate cuts, a decline in the unemployment rate is anticipated.stock market declineThis will be a contributing factor.
US 10-year bond yieldsはwill grow or decrease.Rose following the announcement, but then declined.
The decline in long-term interest rates isStocks are rising.This is the factor.
The bond marketlowering interest rates I determine that it is approaching.
Stock index composed of small cap stocksRussell 2000isStock price index composed of large cap stocksAnd doing well.
Stock price index composed of large cap stocksDow IncはRising for 5 consecutive daysand bullish.

Stock price index including many high-tech stocks on July 11, 2024NASDAQComprehensivecompared to the previous dayDecreased by 1.92%and was heavily sold off.
A stock index composed of small-cap stocks, on the contrary.Russell 2000rose by 3.57% from the previous dayand surged.and surged by 3.57%.
The USA has ordered the dispatch of dozens of troops to Cyprus in preparation for scenarios such as evacuating Americans from Lebanon. The State Department announced on Tuesday that they are increasing flights from Lebanon and working with airlines to add more seats for American passengers.CPIHas fallen.Long-term interest ratesAlso dropped.Stocks are rising.For those who had expected it to fall.NASDAQI think the decline has become bad news.
High-tech stocks, which have led the market, as well asAI-related stocksare being bought anticipating the growth several years ahead.
It is not abnormal for stocks to be purchased in this way, but it is important to have the awareness that high-tech stocks are prone to being overbought and may experience volatility during adjustment phases.
WhyCPIDespite the fact that it dropped,NASDAQDid it fall?
It is easy to say that the reason is that it was overbought,CPIBy falling, prices drop and the economy is stimulatedunemployment rateEmphasis is placed on the fact that it is becoming difficult to rise.
ContradictionI think you will notice that it is contradictory.
As prices fall, inflation tends to stabilizelowering interest rates it is approaching
The easing of inflation will be a positive development for the economy, leading to the activation of the labor market.
Especially this time's...

In his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, FRB Chairman Powell said the following on Tuesday.
Chairman Powell's congressional testimony took place amid increasing impatience among members of the interest rate cut and dissatisfaction with the central bank's proposal to strengthen capital requirements for Wall Street banks.
According to the opening statement, the FRB stated that "the risks we are facing are not only the rise in inflation," and will continue to determine based on incoming economic data.
The head of the FRB warned that starting the rate cut too early or too late could "unduly weaken economic activity and employment". The Fed chairman warned that if the rate cut is too early or too late, there is a risk of "unduly weakening economic activity and employment."
A senior FRB official is facing political pressure to lower rates as the unemployment rate continues to rise. In testimony for the Senate hearing, Chairman Powell stated that the job market is "strong but not overheated".

The USA announced on July 5, 2024 at 9:30 pm unemployment rateas a result compared to the previous month's 4.0%4.1%was.
It is a three-month consecutive increase.
Unemployment rateThe rise is a material for interest rate cutsStocks are rising.This is the factor.
Simultaneously announced.NFP (non-farm payrolls) (month-on-month)Was 0.206 million people compared to 0.218 million people in the previous month.
The deterioration of employment is a material for a rate cut.Stock price riseIt is the reason.
US 10-year bond yieldsFell to 4.277%. The decline in long-term interest ratesStock prices are highThis is the reason.
From June 27th,Gold futuresis rebounding.
Unemployment rateSurged in response to the worseningGold futuresIt is obvious that, due to expectations of interest rate cuts,

Announced at 23:00 on July 3, 2024.ISM non-manufacturing business sentiment indicatorResult against the previous month's 53.848.8was.
Falling below the critical point of 50, the U.S. service industry can be considered in a recession, a point between prosperity and recession.
Significantly dropped after May and June 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 shock.The lowest valueIt is.
Became a material for interest rate cutsStocks are rising.This is the factor.
Announced on July 2, 2024JOLTS job openingswas 8.14 million compared to the previous month's 7.919 million.
The strong labor market is delaying the timing of interest rate cuts.stock market declineIt is the cause.
Announced on July 3, 2024 at 9:15 PM.ADP employment (compared to the previous month)As a result, compared to the previous month's 0.157 million people.0.15 million people.It was.
It has been three consecutive months of decline.
JOLTS job openingson the other hand, was strong.ADP employmentshowed weak numbers.
Even though there are many job openings, the number of employees is decreasing, which indicates a sector where job opportunities are increasing.biased.is the reason.
Announced on July 3, 2024.Number of new unemployment insurance applicationsResults against the previous week's 0.234 million cases.0.238 million cases.It was.
The decline stopped for two consecutive weeks and rebounded.
Since May, the upward trend has become stronger.
Unemployed personsThe increase is a material for interest rate cuts.Stock prices are rising.factors...

The yield, although slightly, exceeded nasdaq.
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Announced on June 28, 2024 at 21:30 in the USA.Core PCEAs a result, it was 2.8% compared to the previous month.2.6%It was.
The decline in prices is a material for interest rate cuts.Stocks are rising.This is the factor.
It was announced at 22:45 on the same day.Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).Results rose sharply compared to the previous month's 35.4.47.4Results rose sharply.
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).Economic indicator that reflects the business conditions of manufacturing in specific regions rather than the entire USA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).PMI had been declining for 6 consecutive months, but this time it rose sharply.
The manufacturing industry is important to the US market.ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index.It is.
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).It generally moves in a similar way to the ISM, but it is not directly linked to a 100% movement.
When the manufacturing industry is flourishing, it is easy for the stock market as a whole to decline.US 10-year bond yieldsIt causes the stock market as a whole to rise.
Core PCEIs falling.Stocks are rising.It is a place where manufacturing is starting to show signs of strength, which will put the brakes on the stock market.
Announced at 23:00 on the same dayThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexThe result is for the previous flash value of 65.6.68.2It was.
The result is younger than the 65.6 announced in mid-June.

The United States announced at 21:30 on June 18, 2024Retail sales (month-on-month)The result is negative 0.2% for the previous month0.1%It was.
What is the market's expectationInterest rate cutsIt is.
We had hoped for a decline in consumption, but the result was that it remained flat.
retail salesIf you look at it compared to last year2.3%It's increasing.
CPIThe decline ofConsumer Confidence IndexExpectations for interest rate cuts were growing due to the decline, but the result is that consumption has not fallen that far.
retail salesSince there is a tendency for major revisions to be made, the final figures will not be known until next month's announcement.
US 10-year bond yieldIt has entered a downtrend even though it is weak. Mortgage interest rates fall as long-term interest rates fall.
mortgage interest ratesBecause the number of home buyers increases when it fallsrentsThere is a possibility that inflation will calm down.
US 10-year bond yieldWhat is the decline ofCPIWhether it will lead to a decline is also becoming important.
As long-term interest rates fallConsumption is being revitalizedThere is also a risk that the interest rate cut period will go backwards if it is done.
CPIAlthough housing costs account for a fall, there is also a possibility that prices of services and goods will rise.
Basically, slowing down inflation is not straightforward.
The US economy...