An amazing rating for Nvidia has been announced. The highest is $220! I don't believe in analyst target prices, but it would be around a 65% increase from the current stock price. I think it will probably happen, but when it will be achieved is uncertain.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Discussion on the supply and demand balance of nvidia's stock price. It is greatly influenced by the following factors.
1. Current supply and demand balance
Demand side: nvidia's GPUs maintain high demand for AI and datacenter applications. In particular, strong demand for the new GPU 'Blackwell' is expected to continue high for the next several quarters, with shipments exceeding expectations.
On the supply side, nvidia is expanding its production capacity and strengthening cooperation with partner companies such as TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) that handle chip production. However, the supply system to keep up with the rapid demand growth is a challenge, and there are concerns about supply shortages for specific products.
2. Investor psychology and the impact on stock prices
The temporary stock price decline seen after the financial results is due to the market factoring in a slowdown in growth. However, with the expected solid earnings growth in the future, it can be said that the overall balance of supply and demand is supporting the stock price.
Investors are focusing on the sustainability of AI demand and nvidia's ability to meet it, with concerns that short-term supply shortages could have an impact.
3. Need...
1. Current supply and demand balance
Demand side: nvidia's GPUs maintain high demand for AI and datacenter applications. In particular, strong demand for the new GPU 'Blackwell' is expected to continue high for the next several quarters, with shipments exceeding expectations.
On the supply side, nvidia is expanding its production capacity and strengthening cooperation with partner companies such as TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) that handle chip production. However, the supply system to keep up with the rapid demand growth is a challenge, and there are concerns about supply shortages for specific products.
2. Investor psychology and the impact on stock prices
The temporary stock price decline seen after the financial results is due to the market factoring in a slowdown in growth. However, with the expected solid earnings growth in the future, it can be said that the overall balance of supply and demand is supporting the stock price.
Investors are focusing on the sustainability of AI demand and nvidia's ability to meet it, with concerns that short-term supply shortages could have an impact.
3. Need...
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ In the third quarter of 2024, global strategy (NVIDIA) can be considered in a transition period from H100 (Hopper architecture) to the next-generation Blackwell architecture.
1. The demand for H100 is approaching its peak.
H100 has demonstrated overwhelming performance in AI generation and datacenter training/inference processing, maintaining strong demand in 2024. However, as the announcement of the next-generation architecture Blackwell approaches, some customers and the industry may have been increasing their expectations for its performance improvement.
2. Preparation period for Blackwell.
Blackwell is expected to be fully introduced to the market in 4Q, with information on its architecture and specifications starting to emerge in the second half of 2024. For nvidia, it was an important stage to prepare the manufacturing chain and customer transition plans. In fact, TSMC is operating at full capacity for GPU chip production.
3. Transitional period of the product lifecycle
In the high-end product (H100) market, the timing of demand maturity is key...
1. The demand for H100 is approaching its peak.
H100 has demonstrated overwhelming performance in AI generation and datacenter training/inference processing, maintaining strong demand in 2024. However, as the announcement of the next-generation architecture Blackwell approaches, some customers and the industry may have been increasing their expectations for its performance improvement.
2. Preparation period for Blackwell.
Blackwell is expected to be fully introduced to the market in 4Q, with information on its architecture and specifications starting to emerge in the second half of 2024. For nvidia, it was an important stage to prepare the manufacturing chain and customer transition plans. In fact, TSMC is operating at full capacity for GPU chip production.
3. Transitional period of the product lifecycle
In the high-end product (H100) market, the timing of demand maturity is key...
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ As expected, this earnings report was not a failure. The first quarter, including this quarter, had a subtle reaction. The second quarter saw a 10% decline, while the third quarter initially dropped 5% after the earnings announcement but eventually rebounded. The consensus has been surpassed in all aspects, and the outlook for the fourth quarter is also surpassing the consensus. There is nothing to worry about, and the gross profit margin can be maintained. In other words, the demand for AI is exceptionally strong. Although it's not a surprise, aiming for the top market capitalization in the world at this scale is impressive. To be honest, I didn't have high expectations for the third quarter as I thought it was a transition period for SMCI and Blackwell, so I think it was a good earnings report.
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$SoftBank Group (9984.JP)$ Strengthening relations with a $0.5 billion investment in BlackTransformation and OpenAI. It was a wonderful financial statement. Once again, the stock price rose to 10,000 yen.
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$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$ The market consensus is exceeded, it's a good financial result. QCOM is bouncing on the earnings. ARM is in dispute but if resolved, it will go even higher.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The positive news on dow inc's adoption has been offset by the negative news on SMCI. It's important to consider the supply and demand dynamics as a sudden rise before the 3Q earnings could lead to selling even with good earnings. While it may seem expensive, companies like AMD, ARM, and PLTR might be considered expensive, but when it comes to NVDA, I don't really feel like it's expensive considering the growth in revenue.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ In addition to announcing the acceleration of expanding datacenters, major tech companies that are NVDA's GPU sales partners may be purchasing NVDA's GPU to build custom servers in-house or using servers equipped with NVDA's GPU from server manufacturers such as DELL, SMCI, and HPE. What do you think about the impact of SMCI's accounting scandal this time? I'd like to hear your comments.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I always thought that Dow inclusion was on the agenda at some point, but it happened at this timing. I can understand the idea that stock prices will rise due to large purchases from index funds with Dow inclusion, but since it is already included in the S&P 500, it may have limited impact on stock prices. There is a significant advantage over current competitors AMD and INTC, but there is concern that volatility in stock prices will increase more than usual before the 3Q earnings, leading to turbulence at the time of earnings. If you have a medium to long-term stance, holding is the only option.
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$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ I didn't think the barrier to entry for Server was high, and when it was rising before, I wondered why the volatility was so high and whether I should hold it or not. It was a stock where I was considering whether to hold or not. However, with Hindenburg's news, the stock price quickly cooled down, and although I made a tentative buy, I ended up selling. The auditing firm raised concerns about governance, moving from a gray area to a black one. I wonder what will happen with SEC's supervision. If it leads to legal action, could delisting be a possibility?
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