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Q&A is a session under a company's earnings conference that institutional and retail investors ask some most-concerned questions to the management. $Pfizer(PFE.US)$ released its Q3 earnings that beats the estimates. On this page, you may discover info that might affect the stock price in the following weeks.
Key Takeaways:
Attitudes: management increased revenue and EPS guidance for Q4, mainly driven by vaccine sales strong performance.
Goals: expect revenue to be in a range of $81 billion to $82 billion, increasing by $2.5 billion. Increased adjusted diluted EPS range of $4.13 to $4.18 or 84% growth at the midpoint. Expect a revenue CAGR of at least 6% through 2025 excluding COVID vaccines.
Products: manufacturing capacity of oral antiviral for COVID is ramping up, and the market is estimated to be about 150 million people. For COVID vaccine the company have contracts in hand that supports 1.7 billion doses in 2022.
Do you expect vaccine efficacy on hospitalizations to fade over time?
The real-world evidence studies coming from Israel all show that you do get waning over time, driven by the immune system, gradually reducing antibodies in the blood and activated immune cells. So yes, there is just a shift in time. And that's why we already now are preparing for revaccination, when the third boost immunity may start to fade possibly after a year, which we think would be the type of data to generate to support more of an annual vaccination, similar as flu.
I appreciate the comments you made around 2022 in terms of the COVID vaccine sales. Can you maybe share just updated thoughts on how you guys are seeing the revenue stream from these vaccines are playing out over time? On '23, '24, '25.
We're using that same approach for 2022. We have contracts in hand that supports the 1.7 billion doses and the $29 billion in revenue. So that will be the rhythm of the numbers, the way to think about it going forward in '22. Beyond '22, we are continuing to work on that. The other thing that I would say is we are moving ahead to produce 4 billion doses. We are producing enough, but for the low- and middle-income countries to receive not-for-profit, with very severely discounted price for the middle-income countries, they need to place orders.
It was kind of going across the wire, there are some comments from D.C. about negotiating drug prices for 30 drugs by 2028 as part of the negotiated agreement. Is this something that drug industry can live with or not?
We have an issue asset in multiple times with drug pricing. But the issue is not the cost to the healthcare system. The issue is the cost out of pocket for the patientsthat taking their medicine. The cost of drug pricing to the overall healthcare system, it is 12%. So by definition, it cannot be the big problem. What some parts of the political spectrum wants to see is not negotiation. It's price fixing. We will be telling a price, but if we disagree with this price, then they will tax us 90%, 95% on everything that we sell in the private market.
On the oral antiviral for COVID. How much you can manufacture? What do you think about the durability of these sales?
On the oral, we keep manufacturing. It depends on how much we will have already product available this year. And then, our manufacturing capacity is ramping up. The durability is more or less an analog to the durability of the COVID vaccines as a franchise. Given that COVID has been really across the globe. And I think, we are speaking about the years of durability.
On the question of overall guidance, it seems to me that next year should be another growth year for Pfizer. Can you give us a sense of whether that's your expectation as well?
On the guidance, first of all, this year, we have a record sales. We will provide guidance in the first month of the year in our fourth call earnings, which is late January. We are maintaining a growing dividend. That's very clear. And then, our second priority is clearly to invest in the business. And actually, I will turn to Aamir Malik, who this is his first call here, to speak a little bit about the opportunities in business development and how he sees them.
This article is a script from the Q&A session of Pfizer's earnings call on Nov 2. In order to facilitate reading, we have made appropriate cuts. If you want to know more details, you can click here to re-watch the earnings call.

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