(Kuala Lumpur News, 3rd) The overall performance of the banking industry in the second quarter of 2024 is good. Analysts expect that the net interest margin will stabilize in the future, and the prospects for profit growth are still bright, maintaining a "positive" rating.
In the latest report of Maybank Investment Banking Research, it is observed that in the first half of this year, the core net profit of the banking industry in our country increased by 9% year-on-year, mainly due to the continuous growth of operating profit by 7% and stable credit costs.
Therefore, analysts maintain a growth forecast of 7.6% for full-year operating profit in 2024.
This is mainly based on the forecast of domestic loan growth of 5.5%, an average net interest margin of 2.07%, a non-interest income ratio of 25.1%, and a cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 44.7%.
Considering the support of lower crediting costs, that is 22 basis points, lower than the 23 basis points in 2023, we have raised our core net profit growth expectation from 6.8% to 7.8%, while the average return on equity (ROE) of the banking industry is expected to be 10.4%.
Question: Can maintain low inflation this year.
Analysts pointed out that the overall inflation rate last year was 2.5%. The bank's economists have already lowered their inflation forecast for 2024 from the previous 3% to 2%, and they expect inflation for 2025 to be in the range of 2.5% to 3%, due to the expected implementation of targeted fuel subsidies next year.
Although the current deposit interest rate has a positive return, given the prospect of rising inflation next year, it means that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term...