$Revolution (8894.JP)$
I have summarized all the events regarding this matter.
There may be some mistakes, but please take a look.
If there are any points to be noted, modifications or deletions may be made.
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On March 16, additional information was provided regarding the 1Q financial results and the establishment of a third-party committee for IR.
Column: The Rise and Fall of REVOLUTION (8894) | By Taishi Kenmochi | Education on starting Asset Management for beginners.
I have summarized all the events regarding this matter.
There may be some mistakes, but please take a look.
If there are any points to be noted, modifications or deletions may be made.
----
On March 16, additional information was provided regarding the 1Q financial results and the establishment of a third-party committee for IR.
Column: The Rise and Fall of REVOLUTION (8894) | By Taishi Kenmochi | Education on starting Asset Management for beginners.
Translated
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2
$Revolution (8894.JP)$
Last year, REVOLUTION (8894) became famous for its extraordinary high-yield benefits.
I will summarize the details of this matter.
Acquired WeCapital through M&A, becoming a consolidated subsidiary. Announced a significant increase in revenue expectations.
↓
In October 2024, it was announced that shareholders holding 2,000 shares for the long term would receive QUO Card Pay worth 0.12 million yen (0.06 million yen per half year).
↓
It was also announced that this would be implemented continuously and that the funding has been secured.
↓
In December 2024, the final settlement was postponed by one week. Following the announcement of the financial results, which included significant losses due to amortization expenses for goodwill related to M&A, the market reacted negatively. A consecutive two-day limit down was recorded, leading to a decline in stock prices.
↓
In January 2025, it was announced that additional benefits would be provided to shareholders with a specified number of shares as of the reference date in October 2024. However, thereafter no details were provided, and stock prices continued to remain sluggish.
↓
The former representative director of WeCapital has been dismissed. The reasons for the dismissal include allegations of embezzlement against the parent company and lack of management capability.
In fact, since this time, the representative director has changed on WeCapital's Company Executives introduction page.
↓...
Last year, REVOLUTION (8894) became famous for its extraordinary high-yield benefits.
I will summarize the details of this matter.
Acquired WeCapital through M&A, becoming a consolidated subsidiary. Announced a significant increase in revenue expectations.
↓
In October 2024, it was announced that shareholders holding 2,000 shares for the long term would receive QUO Card Pay worth 0.12 million yen (0.06 million yen per half year).
↓
It was also announced that this would be implemented continuously and that the funding has been secured.
↓
In December 2024, the final settlement was postponed by one week. Following the announcement of the financial results, which included significant losses due to amortization expenses for goodwill related to M&A, the market reacted negatively. A consecutive two-day limit down was recorded, leading to a decline in stock prices.
↓
In January 2025, it was announced that additional benefits would be provided to shareholders with a specified number of shares as of the reference date in October 2024. However, thereafter no details were provided, and stock prices continued to remain sluggish.
↓
The former representative director of WeCapital has been dismissed. The reasons for the dismissal include allegations of embezzlement against the parent company and lack of management capability.
In fact, since this time, the representative director has changed on WeCapital's Company Executives introduction page.
↓...
Translated
19
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$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
As expected, it won't drop easily.
This will drag on...
Just like during the burst of the dot-com bubble, the Lehman shock, and the COVID shock, it feels like we are hovering at high prices before a crash in an uncertain future...![]()
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
The following shows the VIX trends before and after the collapse of the IT bubble.
The following shows the VIX trends before and after the Lehman Shock.
The following shows the VIX trends before and after the COVID Shock.
All of them have been gradually rising for a long period.
It might test the courage to buy without hesitation.
As expected, it won't drop easily.
This will drag on...
Just like during the burst of the dot-com bubble, the Lehman shock, and the COVID shock, it feels like we are hovering at high prices before a crash in an uncertain future...
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
The following shows the VIX trends before and after the collapse of the IT bubble.
The following shows the VIX trends before and after the Lehman Shock.
The following shows the VIX trends before and after the COVID Shock.
All of them have been gradually rising for a long period.
It might test the courage to buy without hesitation.
Translated
10
2
Last night, there were various events such as the cryptocurrency summit and employment statistics, causing the USA market to remain unstable in fluctuations during the trading session.
Yesterday, the new employment rate was below Financial Estimates and the unemployment rate was slightly above Financial Estimates, leading to heightened concerns about recession, while Chairman Powell's statements strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts.
Concerns over tariffs are also wavering, and amidst a situation that has not yet been completely dispelled, the S&P 500 briefly fell below its current Resistance line at the 200MA, but made a slight rebound within the Resistance range, managing to hold on.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
The VIX index is still fluctuating at a high level, and caution is warranted.
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
Next week, with the CPI approaching, it is expected that short-term volatility will remain high, but as long as the uncertainty does not lessen, this situation is anticipated to continue for a while.
For those who have just started investing or are under the new NISA, it may be quite a trial at present, but it is hoped they will continue index investing without fear of unrealized losses.
Yesterday, the new employment rate was below Financial Estimates and the unemployment rate was slightly above Financial Estimates, leading to heightened concerns about recession, while Chairman Powell's statements strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts.
Concerns over tariffs are also wavering, and amidst a situation that has not yet been completely dispelled, the S&P 500 briefly fell below its current Resistance line at the 200MA, but made a slight rebound within the Resistance range, managing to hold on.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
The VIX index is still fluctuating at a high level, and caution is warranted.
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$
Next week, with the CPI approaching, it is expected that short-term volatility will remain high, but as long as the uncertainty does not lessen, this situation is anticipated to continue for a while.
For those who have just started investing or are under the new NISA, it may be quite a trial at present, but it is hoped they will continue index investing without fear of unrealized losses.
Translated
5
$IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$
It feels like there is significant resistance around the 200MA.
If it breaks downward, considerable preparation may be necessary.
It feels like there is significant resistance around the 200MA.
If it breaks downward, considerable preparation may be necessary.
Translated
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2
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined"){kind=small}
Since the VIX is also on the rise, if it clearly breaks the range of the 200MA (-1σ), it will become quite difficult...
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
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2
$IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$
A decline of more than 10% after hours.
The earnings report itself is excellent, but it may have fallen due to concerns about warrants and dilution rate.![]()
Considering that, it seems to be moving quite steadily, but what do you think.
It doesn't seem like a sell-off due to disappointment.![]()
$IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$
A decline of more than 10% after hours.
The earnings report itself is excellent, but it may have fallen due to concerns about warrants and dilution rate.
Considering that, it seems to be moving quite steadily, but what do you think.
It doesn't seem like a sell-off due to disappointment.
Translated
7
$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ It dropped to the $13 level, but I felt the strength of the bottom.
Considering the terrible market conditions yesterday, it's impressive that it held up this well.![]()
$SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$
Considering the terrible market conditions yesterday, it's impressive that it held up this well.
Translated
9
Although not attracting much attention, it is undervalued due to a significant decline in earnings.
Buy the dip at a target stock price of $20.
Due to low visibility, the volume is not very high, and even in the upward trend, the price increase is minimal, so a medium-term perspective may be needed.![]()
$Silence Therapeutics (SLN.US)$
Buy the dip at a target stock price of $20.
Due to low visibility, the volume is not very high, and even in the upward trend, the price increase is minimal, so a medium-term perspective may be needed.
Translated
4
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剣持大志 OP kenau : Thank you for looking.
I have only summarized the main points, but I hope this document helps to understand the situation.
剣持大志 OP kensan5 : Thank you for taking a look.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
While writing, it occurred to me that the content this time has a development similar to a financial drama.
I am glad to hear that you found it enjoyable.
剣持大志 OP 大負けネコ(HYPER) : Thank you for taking a look.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
So you were a holder even before the merger, which means you probably entered the market before the benefits were established.
Indeed, at last year's point, before the benefits were set up, it felt like a stock with significant growth potential and gave a strong impression of good governance.
However, it seems that things have become uncertain since the introduction of the benefits.
However, once the benefits were established, it feels like they should have fulfilled that responsibility at least once.
It seems that you are still holding on, so I can understand your feelings...
The fact that sweet yields can become fatal when there are cracks has been proven again in this case...
Let's use this opportunity to apply what we’ve both learned moving forward in our investments!
剣持大志 OP ケビン(大学生) : Thank you for taking a look.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Good deals are quite rare.
Indeed, there is a risk that a high-value privilege may collapse entirely due to a single flaw, even if there is no hidden issue.
剣持大志 OP 184015423 : Thank you for taking a look.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
This is not something that happens often, yet the extent of the loss of trust was immeasurable.
It makes me very happy to hear you say that.
I focused on objectively summarizing only what was understood, but a bit of subjectivity crept in at the end in the conclusions.
There were unpleasant things, but I hope we can apply what we learned to future investments.
I plan to keep an eye on how Revolution Inc. works towards recovering its trust.
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