Announced at 23:00 on 2024/7/3ISM Non-Manufacturing IndexResults for the previous month of 53.848.8It was.
It can be said that the US service industry is in recession by breaking 50, which is the turning point between the boom and recession.
After 2020/5/6 when it dropped drastically due to the effects of the coronavirus shockThe lowest numberIt is.
It became a material for interest rate cutsStock heightIt's a factor.
It was announced on 2024/7/2Number of JOLTS job offersThe result was 8.14 million compared to 7.919 million people in the previous month.
Because the boom in the labor market will recede the period of interest rate cutsStock depreciationIt's a factor.
It was announced on 2024/7/3 at 21:15Number of ADP employees (month-on-month)Results for 0.157 million people in the previous month150,000 peopleIt was.
This is the third consecutive month of decline.
Number of JOLTS job offersOn the other hand, it was strongNumber of ADP employeesA weak number came out.
The reason why the number of employed people is declining even if the number of job offers is high is the sector where jobs are increasingbiasedIt's from there.
It was announced on 2024/7/3Number of new unemployment insurance claimsResults for 0.234 million cases the previous week0.238 million piecesIt was.　
The decline stopped for 2 consecutive weeks and rebounded.
The upward trend has been getting stronger since the beginning of May.
unemployedThe increase in interest rates became material for interest rate cutsStock heightFactors...

I will explain market information before and after the Tokyo stock market close, individual stocks with prominent movements today, and market price forecasts for next week.
*This program does not solicit investment or other action.
Please use your own judgment when making the final investment decision.

　I was able to express the S&P 500 stock price (candlestick) and its SKEW (blue), and changes in VIX (brown) and VVIX (yellow) on one free TV. The VIX (brown) value, which rises due to the stock price crash, has hardly changed, but the SKEW (blue) value, which rises when far put (profit due to a drastic fall in stock price) increases in the S&P 500 option, and the VVIX (yellow) value, which rises when far calls (profit from a drastic VIX rise) of the VIX option increase, have both risen. The current SKEW (blue) value is 148.83, which exceeds the estimated risk of black swans appearing at 140. While information on changes in US bond interest rates is scarce, is it a sense of alarm about the unemployment rate announcement etc. at 21:30 tonight? What is the cause of the fall in the dollar index since last night? It would be nice if it ended in disappointment and literally became a “morning reign, twilight reform,” but... Just for your reference.
<About SKEW and VVIX＞
On 7/12 at 02:00 it is said that Moomoo Securities will distribute an exclusive webinar hosted by the CBoE Options Research Institute. It looks like you can make a viewing reservation from within the app.

Chairman Powell of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) avoided presenting specific guidance on when to cut interest rates for the first time on the 2nd,“dovish”It seems to show such an attitude. Chairman Powell also revealed that there has been considerable progress in the Federal Reserve lowering the inflation rate to policy targets.
Overall, more than half of financial institutionsThe first rate cut will be in SeptemberI anticipate that.
CitigroupInterest rate cuts of 25 bp in September, November, and December, respectivelyI'm predicting it. In June, the bank revised downward its previous forecast, which had been to cut interest rates 4 times from July. The main indicator that the bank is paying attention to is the unemployment rate, which rose moderately from 3.9% the previous month to 4% in May. Also, the inflation rate is expected to cool down in the next few months.
Similar to Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities also anticipate that the first rate cuts will be in September.
JPMorgan, which has a hawkish stance, predicts that the first rate cut will be in November since labor market momentum continues to be strong. The bank changed the number of interest rate cuts from 3 to 1 this year, but the employment situation is sluggish, and interest rate cuts took a few months...

I will explain market information before and after the Tokyo stock market close, individual stocks with conspicuous movements today, and market price forecasts for tomorrow and beyond.
Main Commentary: Kamata Shinichi (Radio NIKKEI Commentary Committee Member)
*This program does not solicit investment or other action.
Please use your own judgment when making the final investment decision.

Join us for an exclusive webinar hosted by Cboe Options Institute, featuring Mandy Xu, Vice President and Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at Cboe, as we explore VIX and Volatility.
In this complimentary session from moomoo, you'll uncover:
- VIX basics: What is the VIX, the VIX curve, and VIX spikes?
- VIX-related products: What are the different ones and how can they be used to meet different investment goals and market conditions?
- Current insights: What are the current market c...

I will explain market information before and after the Tokyo stock market close, individual stocks with conspicuous movements today, and market price forecasts for tomorrow and beyond.
Main Commentary: Kamata Shinichi (Radio NIKKEI Commentary Committee Member)
*This program does not solicit investment or other action.
Please use your own judgment when making the final investment decision.