Following the conclusion of the US presidential election and the completion of major Q3 earnings reports, there was a temporary profit-taking and portfolio reshuffling during this week, compressing the valuation gains to around +10 million yen.
Notable profits were especially seen in NVDA, PLTR, CEG, and AEM. Each of these, related to AI, energy, gold, and recent topics, allowed for significant profit growth.
While TSM had positive earnings, its stock price stagnated, prompting a small loss-cutting and liquidation of all positions. Although performance outlook remains positive, insufficient information to determine geopolitical risks related to Trump's policies towards China, Russia, and the Middle East led to a cautious approach to monitor future policy developments.
Regarding current positions, focusing on AI-related investments like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META, the outlook remains positive based on earnings and guidance. However, the investment focus has been narrowed to NVDA and PLTR, with profit-taking and position adjustments made for two other continued investment positions. This trade aims to rebalance slightly skewed allocations, ...

The factors behind the increase in assets in the first half of the year were the strong stock market, particularly the rise in semiconductor-related stocks against the backdrop of investment in AI, and the depreciation of the yen, which progressed from 140 yen/dollar at the beginning of the year to 153 yen as of 7/29, were significant. In particular, NVDA, which made large profits in May and June, secured 80% of its holdings in July. Also, since July was moving in the direction of yen appreciation and dollar depreciation due to movements of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, Moomoo's account was negative on a yen basis, but it is positive in terms of the dollar trend of US stocks.
By sector, expectations for technology stocks have been high in recent months, and actual performance was good, so they reached the point where they accounted for 90% of temporary holdings, but in particular, the financial environment changed drastically in July, so stocks were replaced. The current investment ratio by sector is 30% for technology, 25% for healthcare, 15% for finance, 11% for energy, 5% for insurance, 2% for transportation, and 12% for crypto assets. Until now, crypto asset-related stocks have hardly been dabbled in, but there have been changes such as crypto asset ETFs being approved in the US market, and it is not possible to directly invest in IBIT etc. from Japan, so they are added to portfolios...

Looking back on the first half of the year and future predictions ②
There was a loss of 25k dollars compared to profit of 116k dollars, which was a positive profit and loss of 90k dollars in the first half of the year. During this time, gains from stock price increases were about 70%, and yen base assets increased by about 15% from 140 yen/dollar to 160 yen/dollar as the depreciation of the yen depreciation and appreciation of the dollar progressed.
As for the financial environment at the beginning of the year, it was thought that the number of cuts in US interest rates was more factored in than the market as of 6/30, but in reality, interest rate cuts by the Fed were not carried out for half a year due to high inflation. Meanwhile, interest rates in Japan have not changed on a scale that has an impact on the market, and as a result, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar by 15% did not have structural changes, so I think it is an appropriate level.
As for changes in stock prices, the S&P 500 was 15% higher and the Nikkei average was 18% higher, and it was also strong as a market average, but even when looking at the rising and falling stock lines, I think there was a huge difference in how good or bad things were between industries and companies. Among the 62 stocks I own, semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVDA, performed extremely well, while BRK.B lost money. Nonetheless, by being able to determine profits and cut losses in a timely manner, the advantage of investing in individual stocks is that profits and losses can be controlled easily...

Review of the first half of the year and future predictions
I'm frankly happy that we were able to leave a record above the market average in a very strong market. Since stocks have been replaced at a frequency of about once every 2 months from timely settlement and guidance, profit and loss were 85% positive.
First, as a result of investing in a wide range of industries in January, taking advantage of rising exchange rates between Japan and the US, an increase of almost the same level as the market was obtained. One of the major turning points was the brand swap that was carried out little by little in January, and we narrowed it down to 8 brands in the 3 industries of technology, insurance, and automobiles. As a result, we were able to greatly outperform the market from February to March. Meanwhile, there was a big decline in April, but even so, I think the reason they did not underperform above the market average is because they were narrowed down to stocks with good corporate performance. Furthermore, it was May-June that my results improved significantly. Since NVDA's very strong financial results and prospects were confirmed in May, risk was overwhelmingly low compared to other industries, and returns were increased, so the investment ratio was greatly increased. As a result, we were able to further increase our profit margin in the first half of the year.
As a forecast for the future, I believe that the current state of affairs and the financial environment will continue to appreciate the dollar and the rise in US interest rates for 1 to 2 months. business...

In hindsight, it was crucial to maximize profits on 5/28 by not missing out on SMCI on 5/15 and NVDA on 5/23, taking profits on MSCI after NVDA earnings, and increasing NVDA buys. Reflecting on May, understanding the business and investing in good financial results has generated returns above the market average. Therefore, in June, I want to scrutinize market and company figures and momentum, hold excellent companies in appropriate proportions, and make timely profits, cut losses, and adjust the portfolio.