$Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC.US)$ $Grab Holdings (GRAB.US)$ Grab's earnings report puts a lot of emphasis on Adjusted Net Sales where Adjusted Net Sales = Revenue + consumer incentives and excess driver/merchant incentives. This will mislead investors and exaggerate the company's actual performance. Firstly, incentives-fueled growth is not sustainable due to cash burns and reliance on subsidies from external parties. Secondly, according to Grab:
Grab presents Adjusted Net Sales as a metric to compare, and to enable investors to compare, its aggregate operating results in the absence of excess incentives, which are intended to be temporary drivers of growth, and which Grab plans to reduce in the future. Grab’s management believes Adjusted Net Sales captures significant trends in its business over time.
Therefore, incentives should be removed from any form of Grab's performance analysis. Unfortunately, Grab's performance after removing incentives doesn't look optimistic. Grab's revenue decreased by 16% quarter over quarter, despite an increase in adjusted net sales of 8%. This suggests that incentives fueled the bulk of its expansion. According to the numbers, Grab upped its incentives by 27% quarter over quarter. However, the 27 percent increase in incentives resulted in just a 3.78 percent rise in monthly transacting users (MTU) and a 2.6 percent increase in GMV per MTU. This has several consequences. To begin, the considerable increase of incentives but just a modest increase in growth indicates an aging market.
On the other hand, with Uber as comps, Grab's valuation of $60bn implies a (revised) CAGR of 35% + a full recovery of its ride-hailing business to pre-pandemic levels. This causes a discrepancy between its valuation and growth expectations. A bear-case scenario will see Grab's share price mirror $Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ decline after reporting slowing growth.
Let's examine whether Q3 performance can turn things around for Grab.
Figure 1: Grab's 2021Q1 Quarterly Performance
Figure 2: Grab's 2021Q2 Quarterly Performance
Grab presents Adjusted Net Sales as a metric to compare, and to enable investors to compare, its aggregate operating results in the absence of excess incentives, which are intended to be temporary drivers of growth, and which Grab plans to reduce in the future. Grab’s management believes Adjusted Net Sales captures significant trends in its business over time.
Therefore, incentives should be removed from any form of Grab's performance analysis. Unfortunately, Grab's performance after removing incentives doesn't look optimistic. Grab's revenue decreased by 16% quarter over quarter, despite an increase in adjusted net sales of 8%. This suggests that incentives fueled the bulk of its expansion. According to the numbers, Grab upped its incentives by 27% quarter over quarter. However, the 27 percent increase in incentives resulted in just a 3.78 percent rise in monthly transacting users (MTU) and a 2.6 percent increase in GMV per MTU. This has several consequences. To begin, the considerable increase of incentives but just a modest increase in growth indicates an aging market.
On the other hand, with Uber as comps, Grab's valuation of $60bn implies a (revised) CAGR of 35% + a full recovery of its ride-hailing business to pre-pandemic levels. This causes a discrepancy between its valuation and growth expectations. A bear-case scenario will see Grab's share price mirror $Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ decline after reporting slowing growth.
Let's examine whether Q3 performance can turn things around for Grab.
Figure 1: Grab's 2021Q1 Quarterly Performance
Figure 2: Grab's 2021Q2 Quarterly Performance
![A Short Recap on Grab's Q2 Performance](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/7079216504042467866.jpg/thumb)
![A Short Recap on Grab's Q2 Performance](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/259340021424675884.jpg/thumb)
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Canada's government has officially excluded $Boeing (BA.US)$ Super Hornet from the bidding for a potential C$19B (US$14.8B) contract to build 88 new fighter jets to replace the military's aging CF-18s.
The move by Public Services and Procurement Canada means $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ F-35 stealth fighter and Saab's Gripen are the only two aircraft still in contention.
The Super Hornet and F-35 were viewed by some observers as the only real competition because of Canada's relationship with the U.S., which includes using fighter jets together to defend North American air space, while Sweden - Saab's home - is not a member of NATO or NORAD.
Boeing saysit is "working with the U.S. and Canadian governments to better understand the decision and looking for the earliest date to request a debrief to then determine our path forward."
According to a report yesterday, Boeing is in the lead to win an order for nearly 50 freighter planes from Qatar Airways.
The move by Public Services and Procurement Canada means $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ F-35 stealth fighter and Saab's Gripen are the only two aircraft still in contention.
The Super Hornet and F-35 were viewed by some observers as the only real competition because of Canada's relationship with the U.S., which includes using fighter jets together to defend North American air space, while Sweden - Saab's home - is not a member of NATO or NORAD.
Boeing saysit is "working with the U.S. and Canadian governments to better understand the decision and looking for the earliest date to request a debrief to then determine our path forward."
According to a report yesterday, Boeing is in the lead to win an order for nearly 50 freighter planes from Qatar Airways.
![Lockheed in, Boeing out in bidding for C$19B Canada fighter jet contract](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/3233671906870022347.jpg/thumb)
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$Ford Motor (F.US)$ For all the talk about the Ford's anti-semitism is has to be remembered that Henry Ford was happy to do business with Soviet Russia in the 1930s. Indeed, a case could be made that Henry Ford did more than any other individual American to bring on the demise of Hitler's Germany.
Henry Ford helped pioneer a fine American tradition of U.S. corporations selling their technology to oppressive regimes everywhere no matter what its ideology was. Just as long as at the moment they weren't enemies of the U.S.
Henry Ford helped pioneer a fine American tradition of U.S. corporations selling their technology to oppressive regimes everywhere no matter what its ideology was. Just as long as at the moment they weren't enemies of the U.S.
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$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ Rivian is the best looking EV truck. It doesn't look like Battlestar Galactica, and it's not destined to be Found On Road Dead, like $Ford Motor (F.US)$, which were notorious for coming with parts that just break down in succession. Rivian fills a long sought after demand, from the truck people, contractors, and even women who Love their trucks, for the first EV truck that checks all boxes that truck lovers actually want.
Sure, it's not gonna launch to the Moon, like $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, overnight, but it's a reputable, real, concern that shall most definitely be profitable and grow into it's value. People are actually buying Rivian EV trucks, as well as RIVN stock, in order to send a clear message to other auto makers, which is, 'We Want the Non-natural disasters making EV truck, which looks like a real truck and can function like one, and we want it Now, not in a hundred freaking years, already!'
Other auto makers, besides now converted and cutting edge Ford, have been deaf, dumb, and mute to this SCREAMING DEMAND from truck consumers and lovers shocked that nobody has heard it but Rivian. Ford has heard it and is answering the call, but so many of us have been burned by shoddy Ford work many times before. They still have that nasty reputation for the acronym their company name ironically, and somewhat comedically, spells out. 'Found On Road Dead.'
Rivian has like 50-60,000 actual individuals' orders for their trucks, they have an order for 100,000 Amazon EV delivery vans, and now they're working to make RV EVs for Outdoorsy. The future looks bright for Rivian. Stop bashing Both the truck and the growth stock.
Sure, it's not gonna launch to the Moon, like $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, overnight, but it's a reputable, real, concern that shall most definitely be profitable and grow into it's value. People are actually buying Rivian EV trucks, as well as RIVN stock, in order to send a clear message to other auto makers, which is, 'We Want the Non-natural disasters making EV truck, which looks like a real truck and can function like one, and we want it Now, not in a hundred freaking years, already!'
Other auto makers, besides now converted and cutting edge Ford, have been deaf, dumb, and mute to this SCREAMING DEMAND from truck consumers and lovers shocked that nobody has heard it but Rivian. Ford has heard it and is answering the call, but so many of us have been burned by shoddy Ford work many times before. They still have that nasty reputation for the acronym their company name ironically, and somewhat comedically, spells out. 'Found On Road Dead.'
Rivian has like 50-60,000 actual individuals' orders for their trucks, they have an order for 100,000 Amazon EV delivery vans, and now they're working to make RV EVs for Outdoorsy. The future looks bright for Rivian. Stop bashing Both the truck and the growth stock.
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$Ford Motor (F.US)$ I think any projections of EV sales to 2030 is simply guessing, or at best, sales trend line projections. There will be all kinds of disruptions and infrastructure breakdowns (i.e. over-stressed electric grid, lack of charging stations, etc.) Also, I think the battery technology will go through a radical transformation over the next 9 years. I don't know which technologies will win out, but it looks like the LI-Ion battery will go the way of the Dodo bird.
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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweets that a lot has happened in the eight years since he sent an e-mail to employees on why he wants to keep the company private.
Of course, Musk has been able to fund $Tesla (TSLA.US)$'s growth through the public path.
If SpaceX were to go public, a few ETFs that might be a natural fit are the $Procure Space Etf (UFO.US)$, $Ishares Trust U.S. Aerospace & Defense Etf (ITA.US)$ and $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$.
The last secondary sales by SpaceX were at $560 a share or a valuation of around $100.3B. Morgan Stanley has a bull case valuation on SpaceX of $200B.
Of course, Musk has been able to fund $Tesla (TSLA.US)$'s growth through the public path.
If SpaceX were to go public, a few ETFs that might be a natural fit are the $Procure Space Etf (UFO.US)$, $Ishares Trust U.S. Aerospace & Defense Etf (ITA.US)$ and $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$.
The last secondary sales by SpaceX were at $560 a share or a valuation of around $100.3B. Morgan Stanley has a bull case valuation on SpaceX of $200B.
![Elon Musk sends cryptic tweet on SpaceX IPO](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/3551160278151455141.jpg/thumb)
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Today's shortened trading day was supposed to be a calm one, given the typically low trading volumes seen on Black Friday, but fears of a new COVID-19 variant found in South Africa is shaking up sentiment. $E-mini Dow Futures(SEP4) (YMmain.US)$ plunged 758 points overnight, while contracts linked to the $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(SEP4) (ESmain.US)$ and $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4) (NQmain.US)$ fell 1.7% and 1%, respectively, after stocks sold off in Europe and Asia. WTI $Crude Oil Futures(OCT4) (CLmain.US)$ also tumbled nearly 5% to under $75 as the U.K. imposed fresh travel restrictions and investors reacted to panic over future demand.
The new variant: Believed to have first emerged in Botswana, B.1.1.529 will be called as such until until a Greek letter is assigned to it by the World Health Organization. The variant carries an unusually large number of mutations associated with increased antibody resistance and is "clearly very different" from previous incarnations. South African scientists have already detected 30 mutations to the spike protein, which play a big role in how the virus enters the body.
The biggest concern is whether the virus could lead to more serious illness or decrease the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments. While we don't yet know whether it's more infectious or deadly than other variants, it's spreading across the globe. B.1.1.529 has been found in travelers arriving in Hong Kong, just as COVID cases surge around the world heading into the holiday season.
Go deeper: The World Health Organization has scheduled a special meeting for today to discuss whether to declare the new strain a "variant of concern." "For the moment it is understood that the number of cases is small, but due to the thin liquidity levels in Asia trading as a consequence of the U.S. holiday the reaction does appear to be outsized," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. Other variants of concern include the Delta variant, which is now dominant worldwide, as well as the Alpha variant, which triggered a deadly wave of infections across Europe and the U.S. last winter and spring.
The new variant: Believed to have first emerged in Botswana, B.1.1.529 will be called as such until until a Greek letter is assigned to it by the World Health Organization. The variant carries an unusually large number of mutations associated with increased antibody resistance and is "clearly very different" from previous incarnations. South African scientists have already detected 30 mutations to the spike protein, which play a big role in how the virus enters the body.
The biggest concern is whether the virus could lead to more serious illness or decrease the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments. While we don't yet know whether it's more infectious or deadly than other variants, it's spreading across the globe. B.1.1.529 has been found in travelers arriving in Hong Kong, just as COVID cases surge around the world heading into the holiday season.
Go deeper: The World Health Organization has scheduled a special meeting for today to discuss whether to declare the new strain a "variant of concern." "For the moment it is understood that the number of cases is small, but due to the thin liquidity levels in Asia trading as a consequence of the U.S. holiday the reaction does appear to be outsized," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. Other variants of concern include the Delta variant, which is now dominant worldwide, as well as the Alpha variant, which triggered a deadly wave of infections across Europe and the U.S. last winter and spring.
![Dow futures tumble 750 points, oil plunges on fears of new COVID variant](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/5747511518624562352.jpg/thumb)
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$Sono Group (SEV.US)$ On Sono's website, it states only EUR500 required as deposit which can be refunded up till when the Co reverts with a formal order (ie when they have visibility on production schedule).... Not sure these pre-orders are much different vs other EV makers...ie they are all meaningless.
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$ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$ For perspective, the chart taken below from the ARK Invest website presented ARKK's top-ten holdings of the ARK Innovation ETF as of August 9th, 2021.
Looking at a similar snapshot today, which is shown below, even though Tesla's shares have galloped higher, Cathie Wood has been a consistent seller, and the market value of Tesla shares held at ARKK has actually declined.
Sticking with the top-ten holdings of the ARK Innovation ETF as of August 9th, 2021, and looking at a performance update today is illuminating.
Here was the performance year-to-date of the top holdings of ARKK, as of August 9th, 2021, interspersed with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust.
$Shopify (SHOP.US)$ - Up 36.9%
$Block (SQ.US)$ - Up 28.5%
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ - Up 19.8%
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ - Up 19.0%
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ - Up 17.8%
$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ - Up 13.6%
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ - Up 12.2%
$Twilio (TWLO.US)$ - Up 11.1%
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ - Up 1.2%
$Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)$ - Down 24.7%
$Unity Software (U.US)$ - Down 28.2%
$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ - Down 28.6%
At that point in time, only three holdings of the top-ten holdings in the ARK Innovation ETF, more specifically, Shopify, Square, and Roku, were outperforming the 19.0% gain in the S&P 500 Index, and the average performance of the top-ten holdings was a gain of 4.2%. This was a better return than the ARK Innovation ETF itself, which remember was up only 0.2% YTD through August 9th, 2021.
Ranking that same list of companies, here are the updated year-to-date return figures as of November 23rd, 2021.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ - Up 57.2%
$Shopify (SHOP.US)$ - Up 39.0%
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ - Up 27.1%
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ - Up 26.9%
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ - Up 26.5%
$Unity Software (U.US)$ - Up 14.7%
$Block (SQ.US)$ - Down 3.3%
$Twilio (TWLO.US)$ - Down 18.7%
$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ - Down 22.8%
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ - Down 31.9%
$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ - Down 38.7%
$Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)$ - Down 48.4%
There has been a wholesale change in the performance rankings, with SHOP really the only constant. Today, three of the ARKK top-ten components are outperforming the SPDR 500 ETF. Looking closer, only two of the ARKK top-ten components are outperforming the Invesco QQQ Trust, and these two are TSLA and SHOP. The average performance of the top-ten holdings has declined from a 4.2% gain as of August 9th, 2021, to a 2.6% loss. Notably, this is less of a decline in the performance of ARKK itself, which was up 0.2% as of August 9th, 2021, yet is down by 14.9% as of November 23rd, 2021. Compared to August 9th, 2021, the biggest market capitalization positions have thrived, yet it is the underbelly of ARKK that has seen a more dramatic sell-off, which is of course represented by some underperforming companies in ARKK's top-ten list, notably TDOC, ZM, and ROKU.
Looking at a similar snapshot today, which is shown below, even though Tesla's shares have galloped higher, Cathie Wood has been a consistent seller, and the market value of Tesla shares held at ARKK has actually declined.
Sticking with the top-ten holdings of the ARK Innovation ETF as of August 9th, 2021, and looking at a performance update today is illuminating.
Here was the performance year-to-date of the top holdings of ARKK, as of August 9th, 2021, interspersed with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust.
$Shopify (SHOP.US)$ - Up 36.9%
$Block (SQ.US)$ - Up 28.5%
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ - Up 19.8%
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ - Up 19.0%
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ - Up 17.8%
$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ - Up 13.6%
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ - Up 12.2%
$Twilio (TWLO.US)$ - Up 11.1%
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ - Up 1.2%
$Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)$ - Down 24.7%
$Unity Software (U.US)$ - Down 28.2%
$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ - Down 28.6%
At that point in time, only three holdings of the top-ten holdings in the ARK Innovation ETF, more specifically, Shopify, Square, and Roku, were outperforming the 19.0% gain in the S&P 500 Index, and the average performance of the top-ten holdings was a gain of 4.2%. This was a better return than the ARK Innovation ETF itself, which remember was up only 0.2% YTD through August 9th, 2021.
Ranking that same list of companies, here are the updated year-to-date return figures as of November 23rd, 2021.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ - Up 57.2%
$Shopify (SHOP.US)$ - Up 39.0%
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ - Up 27.1%
$Coinbase (COIN.US)$ - Up 26.9%
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ - Up 26.5%
$Unity Software (U.US)$ - Up 14.7%
$Block (SQ.US)$ - Down 3.3%
$Twilio (TWLO.US)$ - Down 18.7%
$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ - Down 22.8%
$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ - Down 31.9%
$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$ - Down 38.7%
$Teladoc Health (TDOC.US)$ - Down 48.4%
There has been a wholesale change in the performance rankings, with SHOP really the only constant. Today, three of the ARKK top-ten components are outperforming the SPDR 500 ETF. Looking closer, only two of the ARKK top-ten components are outperforming the Invesco QQQ Trust, and these two are TSLA and SHOP. The average performance of the top-ten holdings has declined from a 4.2% gain as of August 9th, 2021, to a 2.6% loss. Notably, this is less of a decline in the performance of ARKK itself, which was up 0.2% as of August 9th, 2021, yet is down by 14.9% as of November 23rd, 2021. Compared to August 9th, 2021, the biggest market capitalization positions have thrived, yet it is the underbelly of ARKK that has seen a more dramatic sell-off, which is of course represented by some underperforming companies in ARKK's top-ten list, notably TDOC, ZM, and ROKU.
![ARKK's Top-Ten Components Have Struggled Mightily](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/1948278203061035449.jpg/thumb)
![ARKK's Top-Ten Components Have Struggled Mightily](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/8154240933533944060.jpg/thumb)
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It's that time of year for $Disney (DIS.US)$ annual report, and poring through its length gives some clues to the company's investment plans ahead.
Coming to the forefront of key questions for streaming services is the still-growing need for ever more content to feed them; Disney's no exception there, and it gave considerable attention on its earnings call earlier this month to the rebound it expects when the programs it's planning make their way through the pipe.
The annual report gives an indicator of Disney's seriousness there. It currently expects fiscal 2022 spend on "produced and licensed content, including sports rights" to be as much as $33 billion - about $8 billion more than an already-high 2021 figure.
That boost is "driven by higher spend to support our (direct-to-consumer) expansion and generally assumes no significant disruptions to production due to COVID-19," the company says.
As for corporate-wide capital expenditures, it's looking to raise those in 2022 to $6.1 billion from 2021's total of $3.6 billion, expecting "higher spending on cruise ship fleet expansion, corporate facilities and production facilities and technology" at its Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution segment.
The report also lays out the number of subscribers to Disney's linear pay-TV channels, and they indicate a still-hefty decline in ESPN subs, among the priciest in all of pay television.
Domestic subscribers to ESPN fell to 76 million from 2020's 84 million. (Considering bundling, 76 million also represents the number of subs for Disney Channel, ESPN 2, Freeform, and National Geographic.) For the Fox channels it inherited in its acquisition of those media assets, FX had 77 million subscribers in 2021, while FXX had 72 million and FXM 47 million.
On an international basis, Disney Channel has 162 million subscribers; ESPN has 64 million; Fox has 184 million; and National Geographic 320 million. Star General Entertainment has 132 million subs while Star Sports has 84 million.
Disney's expecting to rule the long holiday weekend at the box office with the most recent release from its animation department, Encanto.
Coming to the forefront of key questions for streaming services is the still-growing need for ever more content to feed them; Disney's no exception there, and it gave considerable attention on its earnings call earlier this month to the rebound it expects when the programs it's planning make their way through the pipe.
The annual report gives an indicator of Disney's seriousness there. It currently expects fiscal 2022 spend on "produced and licensed content, including sports rights" to be as much as $33 billion - about $8 billion more than an already-high 2021 figure.
That boost is "driven by higher spend to support our (direct-to-consumer) expansion and generally assumes no significant disruptions to production due to COVID-19," the company says.
As for corporate-wide capital expenditures, it's looking to raise those in 2022 to $6.1 billion from 2021's total of $3.6 billion, expecting "higher spending on cruise ship fleet expansion, corporate facilities and production facilities and technology" at its Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution segment.
The report also lays out the number of subscribers to Disney's linear pay-TV channels, and they indicate a still-hefty decline in ESPN subs, among the priciest in all of pay television.
Domestic subscribers to ESPN fell to 76 million from 2020's 84 million. (Considering bundling, 76 million also represents the number of subs for Disney Channel, ESPN 2, Freeform, and National Geographic.) For the Fox channels it inherited in its acquisition of those media assets, FX had 77 million subscribers in 2021, while FXX had 72 million and FXM 47 million.
On an international basis, Disney Channel has 162 million subscribers; ESPN has 64 million; Fox has 184 million; and National Geographic 320 million. Star General Entertainment has 132 million subs while Star Sports has 84 million.
Disney's expecting to rule the long holiday weekend at the box office with the most recent release from its animation department, Encanto.
![Disney annual report presages monster content spending for coming year](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/4541038144674179709.jpg/thumb)
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