$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Yesterday, the CPI data for August in Australia was released, recording 2.7%, in line with market expectations. CPI, as the most important indicator for the Australian Federal Reserve, decreased from 3.5% in the previous month to 2.7%. Combining the details of CPI, it can be observed that the main reason for this decrease is in the energy sector, with one aspect being the drop in oil prices, and the other being the adjustment of electricity prices by the federal government. In terms of energy, electricity prices saw a significant drop of 17.9%, marking the largest historical decline, while oil prices decreased by 7.6% compared to the same period last year. The monthly CPI did indeed reach the RBA's interest rate target range of 2%-3%, but more importantly, the focus is on the CPI data for the third quarter, set to be released on October 30th. If the data continues to stay within the RBA's target range, there may be expectations of an interest rate cut later this year.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar, accompanied by a short-term decline in the US dollar in early trading yesterday, refreshed its high of 0.690 since February last year. Subsequently, the price declined all the way, with the intraday decline almost erasing the gains of the previous trading day, falling to the low of the previous trading day, also the support level near 0.682 mentioned earlier. Pay close attention to the support role of this level, if broken, the Australian dollar may initiate a deeper pullback.
Upper first resistance line at 0.684, second resistance line at 0.687, third resistance line at 0.689.
Lower first support line at 0.682, second support...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Yesterday, in the early session, as the usd fell short-term, gold hit a new high and refreshed the 2670 level, but was later resisted and fell back. Recently, the main factors affecting gold in the market, apart from the heating up of the rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and the safe-haven sentiment of geopolitical tensions, have led to gold hitting historical highs in the past four trading days. The market is focused on tonight's GDP revision, Powell's public speech on the economic outlook, as well as the results of Friday's PCE data, hoping to find more clues as to whether the Fed will continue to cut rates by 50 basis points in the remaining two rate decisions this year. According to cme data, as of this morning, the market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut in the Fed's November rate decision is 57.4%.
Technically, gold has hit new highs for four consecutive days, with strong bullish momentum. Yesterday, after touching the 2650 support twice intra-day, the price rebounded each time, but did not continue to rise above the intraday high of 2670, with the secondary high at 2667. In the short term, a triangle convergence may form above 2650, with a focus on the support at 2650. Be cautious about chasing long positions and guard against top reversal.
Upper resistance at 2660, secondary resistance at 2667, tertiary resistance at 2670.
Lower support at 2650, secondary support at 2637, tertiary support at 2625.
# This recommendation is only general, not considering your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, please be cautious...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD on H1 timeframe.
Yesterday, the Australian Reserve Bank kept the current interest rate at 4.35%, showing determination to restore inflation to the target level (2%-3%). In the post-meeting press conference, the RBA President mentioned that a rate hike was not explicitly considered at the meeting, no recent rate cuts were expected. It is predicted that August CPI might be below 3%. If the interest rate remains unchanged while other countries cut rates, it will support the Australian dollar. Today, the CPI data for August in Australia will be released. Market expectations suggest inflation may fall to 2.7%. If the data meets expectations, monthly CPI will align with the RBA target. However, the RBA is more concerned about the inflation data for the third quarter, which will be released next month, to determine if there are expectations of rate cuts this year. On the other hand, the People's Bank of China made significant moves yesterday by reducing reserve requirements, interest rates, and mortgage rates, providing some support to the Australian dollar. Attention will be on today's 11:30 CPI data release, as it will have a significant short-term impact on the Australian dollar.
Technically, the Australian dollar has hit its highest point since February last year, facing resistance near 0.691 and experiencing a slight retreat in early trading. Short-term support has moved up to around 0.687. There is strong resistance above for the Australian dollar, so caution is advised against top reversal.
Upper resistance line at 0.690, second resistance line at 0.691, and third resistance line at 0.693.
Lower support line at 0.689, second support line at 0.687, and third support line at 0.684.
...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Yesterday saw the release of another manufacturing data in the USA, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, covering 5 major regions in the USA that account for a large portion of the country's total economic GDP. The expected data was -12, but the actual data came in at -21, significantly below expectations, marking the lowest since mid-2020. This indicates the manufacturing sector, a vital economic pillar of the USA, is experiencing a severe slowdown. This has raised market expectations for a significant 50 basis points rate cut in the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The US dollar index plummeted to a yearly low, driving gold prices up. Tensions escalating in the Middle East have also led to more safe-haven funds flowing into gold. Gold hit new highs near 2665 again, closing just below 2660.
Technically, gold remains strong without a pullback, breaking through the previous nearly 4-week upward channel. The short-term slope has steepened, suggesting a potential need for adjustment in the short term. The short-term support level now stands around 2640 near the upper boundary of the upward channel. Gold prices have surged by 34% since the beginning of this year, so be cautious about chasing long positions to prevent top reversals. Implement strict stop-loss measures.
Top resistance at 2660, second resistance at 2665, third resistance at 2670.
Bottom support at 2650, second support at 2640, third support at 2625.
# This recommendation is purely general and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate with caution. ...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Today there will be interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a speech by the RBA Governor. As the last central bank globally that has not adjusted interest rates yet, the widening interest rate differential has provided more support to the australian dollar. The australian dollar also hit near the highest point of the year around 0.685 yesterday. Market expectations for today's interest rate decision are to maintain the current rate, but more attention will be on the post-meeting remarks. Previously, the RBA was hawkish, stating no rate cut expectations in the near future. If the post-meeting remarks soften the previous hawkish comments, it may lead to a downward trend in the australian dollar. If the RBA continues to reiterate a hawkish stance, and tomorrow's CPI inflation data continues to show stubborn resistance to decline, there is a possibility of the australian dollar continuing to rise.
Technically, the australian dollar has obvious resistance at the high points of 0.687 in December last year and 0.690 in June and July, with limited upside potential, beware of top reversal. The australian dollar is short-term strong, achieving a 3.5% increase in just two weeks. There is still support from the trendlines on the downside. The speeches after the interest rate decision in today and tomorrow, as well as the release of CPI data, will have a significant impact on the short-term movement of the australian dollar. Caution in chasing long positions, beware of retracement.
Upper resistance line at 0.684, second resistance line at 0.685, third resistance line at 0.687.
Lower support line at 0.682, second support line at 0.680, third support line at 0.679.
# This recommendation is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H4
Last night, the PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the usa was released. The data shows that the service sector outperformed expectations, but the manufacturing sector remains below the boom-bust line of 50, falling short of expectations. The service sector is steadily expanding, but the manufacturing sector hit a new low in 15 months. According to cme data, the current market expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November exceeds 50%. Excluding the impact of the US dollar, in terms of geopolitics, Israel launched attacks on multiple regions in Lebanon yesterday, resulting in nearly 300 casualties. Safe-haven sentiment continued to drive the gold price higher after hitting a morning high of 2631 and reaching a new high near 2635, before finally closing down to 2628.
Technically, gold remains strong at the upper channel boundary on the 4-hour timeframe, and has refreshed new highs twice in a day. The pullback to around 2615 in early trading yesterday continued to be supported, with short-term bullish momentum still strong. However, there is a risk of retracement, and particular attention should be given to the support near 2602-2600 during the week. Enter cautiously and use strict stop-loss measures.
The upper first line resistance is 2630, the second line resistance is 2635, and the third line resistance is 2640.
The lower first line support is 2625, the second line support is 2615, and the third line support is 2605.

# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
After the announcement of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the local employment market data in australia on Thursday, the australian dollar closed with a large bullish candlestick, followed by a volatile downward trend on Friday. Currently, the market is waiting for the statement after tomorrow's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of australia. The market expects that the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of australia will remain unchanged, but hopes to find more clues during the press conference after the decision. In the previous public statement, the Reserve Bank of australia stated that it will not cut interest rates in the near future, and after the Federal Reserve made a significant 50 basis point rate cut, if the Reserve Bank of australia continues to maintain a hawkish attitude, it may continue to boost the australian dollar. If the Reserve Bank of australia softens its previous stance and gives the market a certain possibility of interest rate cuts, the australian dollar will fall back. In addition to the interest rate decision, the most closely watched inflation data CPI by the Reserve Bank of australia will also be released this Wednesday. If inflation remains high, it may further strengthen the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of australia in the near future. If inflation falls, the Reserve Bank of australia is likely to start an interest rate cut cycle within the year, and the australian dollar will decline.
On the technical side, the australian dollar rebounded after hitting a new high for the year on Thursday and closed lower on Friday. In the short term, the highs and lows are both moving down, which may form a downward channel in the short term. However, there will be an upward trendline support around mid-September, meeting near the 0.679 level. This position may form a strong support and resistance level. Pay close attention to the movement near the 0.679 level.
There is resistance at the upper trendline...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H4
Last Friday, the gold price surged by $40, continuing to hit a new historical high of 2625. Last week, the Federal Reserve opened a new round of interest rate cuts with a significant 50 basis point cut, attracting more funds to flow into gold. Tonight, the PMI of the manufacturing and service industries in the United States will be released, which reflects the economic situation of the United States. Currently, there are still doubts in the market about whether the US economy is entering a recession. If the PMI data is better than expected, it may to some extent continue to boost the attractiveness of the US dollar and cause a downward correction in the gold price. The revision of the second quarter GDP data will be announced on Thursday, and the PCE data for August will be announced on Friday. These data will have a significant impact on gold in the short term. At present, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. If it is allocated to the remaining two interest rate decisions in the year, it means that one of them will cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the other will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points again, it will further weaken the US dollar and push up the price of gold.
Technically, gold broke through the previous high of 2600 on Friday afternoon, and retraced near the support level of 2602 during the day and confirmed that the support was valid before moving higher, closing near 2620. In terms of weekly chart, there have been two consecutive weeks of large bullish candles, and last week's weekly chart still showed a bullish Pin-bar pattern, which means that the bulls are still strong. On the four-hour chart, a more...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Yesterday, Australia's unemployment rate was announced, with data recording as expected and maintaining the previous value of 4.2%, further supporting the view of the Reserve Bank of Australia that there will be no rate cut in the near future. With only 2 trading days left until the RBA's interest rate decision, the market believes that the prospect of the RBA adjusting interest rates next Tuesday is slim. In the case of an expanding interest rate differential, this has provided short-term support for the strength of the Australian dollar. Yesterday, the Australian dollar rose to a new high since January 3rd of this year in the case of the US dollar falling, but was resisted and fell back near 0.684. On the following Wednesday, after the RBA interest rate decision, Australia's CPI data for August will be released. The current previous value is 3.5%. If the inflation data falls below expectations, it may lead the market to believe that the RBA will consider cutting interest rates, resulting in a decline in the Australian dollar. If the inflation data continues to remain high, the RBA may continue to maintain a hawkish stance, supporting further appreciation of the Australian dollar.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar was resisted below 0.684 yesterday, indicating a bearish range around 0.683-0.684. Yesterday, the daily volatility was close to a 1.5% increase, indicating the range of the Australian dollar before the release of the CPI data next week.
The upper first line of resistance is 0.681, the second line of resistance is 0.682, and the third line of resistance is 0.684.
The lower first line of support is 0.678, the second line of support is 0.676, and the third line of support is 0.673.
# This advice is general and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
The Federal Reserve opened the interest rate cut cycle with a substantial 50 basis point cut, and gold hit a historical high of 2600. With Powell's speech, gold fell to 2546 and closed at 2560. In yesterday's morning session, the resistance at 2560 resistance was unable to break through for four hours. However, with the fall of the US dollar, gold broke through the 2560 resistance in the morning session and rose to a high of 2595 before falling back to 2570 and then rising again. It finally closed near 2590. The latest weekly unemployment claims and Q2 current account were announced by the United States last night. The data showed that the job market performed better than expected, but the current account remained in a large deficit. These two data should have driven the gold price to break through the position, but it only refreshed the second high point. Under the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the impact of geopolitics, gold still needs to be cautious.
On the technical side, gold failed to refresh the high point of 2600 last night, and fell back to the second high point of 2595. Now it has returned to a high level and is still maintaining an upward channel, so be cautious of the price falling. Pay close attention to the resistance role that the high point and second high point bring to the gold price.
Upper resistance at 2590, second resistance at 2595, third resistance at 2600.
Lower support at 2580, second support at 2570, third support at 2560.

# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risk, please...