$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
After the release of PCE data in the USA, the USD index declined in the short term, further boosting the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar hit a new high of 0.6937 for the year before falling back to 0.69. The main reason supporting the Australian dollar's rise is still the interest rate differential between the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Last week, the RBA announced interest rate decisions and CPI data. Although the monthly CPI data fell to the Fed's rate cut target level, RBA Chairman continued to indicate no rate cut in the near term, providing strong support for the Australian dollar. As the Reserve Bank of Australia, the last central bank to adjust rates this year, the main reason is still that quarterly inflation has not reached the Fed's target level. Historically, the RBA rarely cuts rates when core inflation is outside the target range. The focus is on the release of third quarter CPI data a month from now, which if falls to the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, may lead the RBA to start its rate cut cycle this year.
Technically, the Australian dollar remains strong, continuing its three-week uptrend oscillation. After a deep retracement to the 0.682 level and a rebound on the trendline, the price stabilized and moved back above the 0.687 level within the week. In the short term, these two levels have become important supports for the Australian dollar, maintaining its upward momentum above these levels.
Upper resistance line at 0.692, second resistance line at 0.694, third resistance line at 0.696.
Lower support line at 0.690, second support line at 0.688, third...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Last Friday, the USA released the latest PCE inflation data. The August PCE data recorded 2.2%, lower than expected and very close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The core PCE came in at 2.7%, meeting expectations (Core PCE excludes volatile food and energy). After the data was released, the USD index broke through the previous low point, hitting the lowest level since July last year. According to CME data, the expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut for the November Fed rate decision is still higher than the expectation for a 25 basis point cut. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reduced its holdings by 5.18 tons, marking the second reduction since August 23, with the first reduction being only 0.27 tons. Gold also started a round of pullback on Friday, breaking below the 2650 level in the short term, touching a low of 2643, and finally closing near 2660. This week will see the release of the most impactful non-farm payrolls data for gold, as well as speeches from Fed policymakers, which will have a significant short-term impact on gold.
Technically, gold closed lower on Friday, marking the largest drop since September 18th after surpassing 2600. It fell by $10. After hitting a new all-time high on Thursday, the high on Friday kept moving lower, falling back within the uptrend channel maintained for 4 weeks. The upper boundary of the uptrend channel could become a short-term support-resistance swap for gold, indicating the overall trend remains oscillating upwards.

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Yesterday, the CPI data for August in australia was released, recording 2.7%, meeting market expectations. CPI, as the most important indicator for the Reserve Bank of Australia, decreased from 3.5% in the previous month to 2.7%. Analyzing the details of CPI, it can be observed that the main reasons for this decrease are in the energy sector, with a significant drop in electricity prices by 17.9% and a 7.6% decrease in oil prices compared to the same period last year. The monthly CPI has indeed reached the RBA's interest rate reduction target range of 2%-3%. However, more importantly, the third quarter CPI data to be released on October 30th at the end of next month. If this data continues to stay within the RBA's target range, there may be expectations of an interest rate cut before the end of the year.
Technically, the australian dollar accompanied a short-term decline in the US dollar in the early session yesterday, hitting a high of 0.690 since February of last year, then the price continued to decline, with an intraday decline almost erasing the previous day's gains, dropping to the low of the previous trading day, also the support level near 0.682 mentioned earlier. Pay close attention to the support role of this level. If broken, the australian dollar may begin a deeper correction.
Upper first line resistance at 0.684, second line at 0.687, third line at 0.689.
Lower first line support at 0.682, second line support...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Yesterday, in the early session, as the usd fell short-term, gold hit a new high and refreshed the 2670 level, but was later resisted and fell back. Recently, the main factors affecting gold in the market, apart from the heating up of the rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and the safe-haven sentiment of geopolitical tensions, have led to gold hitting historical highs in the past four trading days. The market is focused on tonight's GDP revision, Powell's public speech on the economic outlook, as well as the results of Friday's PCE data, hoping to find more clues as to whether the Fed will continue to cut rates by 50 basis points in the remaining two rate decisions this year. According to cme data, as of this morning, the market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut in the Fed's November rate decision is 57.4%.
Technically, gold has hit new highs for four consecutive days, with strong bullish momentum. Yesterday, after touching the 2650 support twice intra-day, the price rebounded each time, but did not continue to rise above the intraday high of 2670, with the secondary high at 2667. In the short term, a triangle convergence may form above 2650, with a focus on the support at 2650. Be cautious about chasing long positions and guard against top reversal.
Upper resistance at 2660, secondary resistance at 2667, tertiary resistance at 2670.
Lower support at 2650, secondary support at 2637, tertiary support at 2625.
# This recommendation is only general, not considering your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, please be cautious...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H1
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the current rate unchanged at 4.35% during the interest rate decision, showing determination to return inflation to the target range of 2%-3%. The RBA Governor mentioned in the post-meeting press conference that there was no clear consideration of a rate hike during the meeting, and there was no expectation of a rate cut in the near future. It is predicted that the CPI in August might be below 3%. If rates remain unchanged while other countries cut rates, this could provide support for the Australian Dollar. Today, Australia's CPI data for August will be released, with market expectations of inflation falling to 2.7%. If the data meets expectations, monthly CPI will align with the RBA's target, but the RBA is more focused on next month's release of third-quarter inflation data to determine if there are expectations of a rate cut within the year. On the other hand, the People's Bank of China made significant policy adjustments yesterday by lowering the reserve requirement ratio, interest rates, and mortgage rates. This to some extent supports the Australian Dollar, with a key focus on the CPI data release at 11:30 today, which will have a significant short-term impact on the Australian Dollar.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has already hit the highest point since February of last year, encountering resistance near 0.691, with a slight drop in the early session. Short-term support has moved up to around 0.687. There is strong resistance for the Australian dollar above, so be cautious of a top reversal.
The immediate resistance above is at 0.690, the second resistance is at 0.691, and the third resistance is at 0.693.
The immediate support below is at 0.689, the second support is at 0.687, and the third support is at 0.684.
...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
Yesterday, another manufacturing data from the USA was released, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which covers 5 major regions in the USA, accounting for a large proportion of the country's total economic GDP. The expected data was -12, but the actual data was -21, significantly lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since mid-2020, indicating a very weak manufacturing sector, an important economic pillar of the USA. This has raised market expectations for a significant 50 basis point rate cut in the next Fed interest rate decision. The US Dollar Index plunged straight to a new low for the year, boosting gold prices. Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, leading to more safe-haven inflows into gold. Gold hit a new high near 2665 again, closing just below 2660.
From a technical perspective, gold remains strong without a pullback and has broken through the previous nearly 4-week uptrend channel. The short-term slope has become steeper, indicating a potential need for short-term adjustment. The support platform below has shifted to around 2640 on the upper edge of the rising channel. Gold prices have risen by 34% from the lowest point this year. Please be cautious about chasing after further increases, guard against top reversals, and strictly adhere to stop-loss measures.
The first resistance level above is 2660, the second resistance level is 2665, and the third resistance level is 2670.
The first support level below is 2650, the second support level is 2640, and the third support level is 2625.
# This recommendation is purely general and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate with caution. ...

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
Today there will be interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a speech by the RBA Governor. As the last central bank globally that has not adjusted interest rates yet, the widening interest rate differential has provided more support to the australian dollar. The australian dollar also hit near the highest point of the year around 0.685 yesterday. Market expectations for today's interest rate decision are to maintain the current rate, but more attention will be on the post-meeting remarks. Previously, the RBA was hawkish, stating no rate cut expectations in the near future. If the post-meeting remarks soften the previous hawkish comments, it may lead to a downward trend in the australian dollar. If the RBA continues to reiterate a hawkish stance, and tomorrow's CPI inflation data continues to show stubborn resistance to decline, there is a possibility of the australian dollar continuing to rise.
Technically, the australian dollar has obvious resistance at the high points of 0.687 in December last year and 0.690 in June and July, with limited upside potential, beware of top reversal. The australian dollar is short-term strong, achieving a 3.5% increase in just two weeks. There is still support from the trendlines on the downside. The speeches after the interest rate decision in today and tomorrow, as well as the release of CPI data, will have a significant impact on the short-term movement of the australian dollar. Caution in chasing long positions, beware of retracement.
Upper resistance line at 0.684, second resistance line at 0.685, third resistance line at 0.687.
Lower support line at 0.682, second support line at 0.680, third support line at 0.679.
# This recommendation is general in nature and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H4
Last night, the PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the usa was released. The data shows that the service sector outperformed expectations, but the manufacturing sector remains below the boom-bust line of 50, falling short of expectations. The service sector is steadily expanding, but the manufacturing sector hit a new low in 15 months. According to cme data, the current market expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November exceeds 50%. Excluding the impact of the US dollar, in terms of geopolitics, Israel launched attacks on multiple regions in Lebanon yesterday, resulting in nearly 300 casualties. Safe-haven sentiment continued to drive the gold price higher after hitting a morning high of 2631 and reaching a new high near 2635, before finally closing down to 2628.
Technically, gold remains strong at the upper channel boundary on the 4-hour timeframe, and has refreshed new highs twice in a day. The pullback to around 2615 in early trading yesterday continued to be supported, with short-term bullish momentum still strong. However, there is a risk of retracement, and particular attention should be given to the support near 2602-2600 during the week. Enter cautiously and use strict stop-loss measures.
The upper first line resistance is 2630, the second line resistance is 2635, and the third line resistance is 2640.
The lower first line support is 2625, the second line support is 2615, and the third line support is 2605.

# This advice is only general advice and does not take into account your specific financial situation and needs. Investment involves risks, so please evaluate carefully. #

$AUD/USD (AUDUSD.FX)$
AUDUSD H4
After the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and local Australian employment market data were released on Thursday, the Australian dollar closed with a large bullish candlestick and then showed a volatile downward trend on Friday. Currently, the market is waiting for the speech after tomorrow's interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The market expects that the interest rate decision tomorrow will maintain the current rate, but hopes to find more clues in the subsequent press conference. In the previous public statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that it will not cut interest rates in the near future, while the Federal Reserve subsequently made a significant 50 basis points interest rate cut. If the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to maintain a hawkish attitude, it may continue to boost the Australian dollar. If the Reserve Bank of Australia softens its previous stance and gives the market the possibility of a certain interest rate cut, the Australian dollar will decline. After the interest rate decision, the most closely watched inflation data CPI by the Reserve Bank of Australia will also be released this Wednesday. If inflation remains high, it may strengthen the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia not to cut interest rates in the near future. If inflation falls, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to start an interest rate cut cycle within the year, and the Australian dollar will decline.
On the technical side, the Australian dollar fell after reaching a new high for the year on Thursday and closed lower on Friday. In the short term, the highs and lows are moving downwards, possibly forming a downward channel in the short term. However, there will be an upward trendline support in the middle of September, with the intersection near the 0.679 level. This level may provide strong support and resistance exchange. Pay particular attention to the movement near the 0.679 level.
There is resistance at the upper trendline...