Columns August CPI: GOOD OR BAD?
At 8:30 EST September 13, BLS released August CPI figures. Headline CPI is 3.7%, higher than forecast of 3.6% and an increase of 0.5% from last month. Core CPI is 4.3%, met expectation and is 0.4% lower than last month. So is it bad or good?
YoY figures are just terrible to use when compared with last month due to base effect. To answer the question of is this month better than last month, we need to look at MoM inflation figures. So Headline CPI MoM is 0.6% due to increa...
YoY figures are just terrible to use when compared with last month due to base effect. To answer the question of is this month better than last month, we need to look at MoM inflation figures. So Headline CPI MoM is 0.6% due to increa...
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There is a new narrative brewing on the street: Soft landing. But all the data is pointing to a recession is coming!
August non-farm payrolll was released on Friday, Sept 1, actual of 187k v.s. est. of 170k. On surface, it seems like a report that will keep FED on its path to raise another 25 bps in November. But if we look closely, June and July combined were revised DOWN by 110k in August. Moreover, June payroll is now 104k v.s. 209k reported two months ago....
August non-farm payrolll was released on Friday, Sept 1, actual of 187k v.s. est. of 170k. On surface, it seems like a report that will keep FED on its path to raise another 25 bps in November. But if we look closely, June and July combined were revised DOWN by 110k in August. Moreover, June payroll is now 104k v.s. 209k reported two months ago....
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Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is on a tear this year in 2023 with almost 240% gain as of September 1 closed. Recently there has been some battling around $500 mark. In general, one would think NVDA should be very expensive at this point and it's a strong sell at $500, but is it though?
92.4 trailing P/E on surface is outright expensive, we need to understand trailing P/E doesn't tell us the company's future growth. For example, we often see Banking sector tra...
92.4 trailing P/E on surface is outright expensive, we need to understand trailing P/E doesn't tell us the company's future growth. For example, we often see Banking sector tra...
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ just released its 2023 Q1 earnings report. By the looks of it, they missed revenue by 1.9%, Act. 508 trillion TWD V.S. Est. 518 Trillion TWD and beat EPS by 6.8%, 7.98 TWD/share V.S. Est. 7.48 TWD/share. However, the most important message was buried in their earnings call: They were wrong about forecasting inventory corrections would bottom in Q2.
TSMC is the bellwether semiconductor industr...
TSMC is the bellwether semiconductor industr...
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In about two weeks’ time, Federal reserve is going to hold FOMC meeting on May 3rd. All eyes around the globe are watching Fed's monetary policy since it will create turmoil in financial markets if the market doesn't like the decision.
Based on CME Fed watch tool, market is now expecting 25 bps hike with 86% chance and the remaining participants expect no hikes on May 3rd. One month ago, only 21% expects a hike and the rest favors ...
Based on CME Fed watch tool, market is now expecting 25 bps hike with 86% chance and the remaining participants expect no hikes on May 3rd. One month ago, only 21% expects a hike and the rest favors ...
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As of today, April 3rd, 2023, NVIDIA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Corporation has skyrocketed by almost 90% YTD, and is only 20% away from All-time-high! From chart below, the semiconductor ETF, SOXX, gained 25.7% YTD which outperformed Nasdaq, 15.9% by a beta of 1.6 times. Some might think this semiconductor run was fueled by AI fad, namely ChatGPT, which is not wrong, but there's more than just the AI story, let's dive in.
Many might still live in the scar left fro...
Many might still live in the scar left fro...
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February's Month-over-Month (MoM), headline came in at 0.4%, met expectation and core came in at 0.5%, slightly higher than expected 0.4%. For Year-over-Year (YoY), headline came in at 6% and core came in at 5.5%, which both met expectation.
Let's re-cap what the Fed is focusing on. In order to assess inflation, we need to break it down by three components: Core goods, Housing, and Core service ex-housing.
Firstly, Core ...
Let's re-cap what the Fed is focusing on. In order to assess inflation, we need to break it down by three components: Core goods, Housing, and Core service ex-housing.
Firstly, Core ...
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Back in December 2022, Tesla $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ dropped from 190 to 110 in a span of 4 weeks, the market panicked during that period. It did seem like all the bad news came out one after another: Elon's twitter hangover, China production halt, Board's unwillingness to do stock buyback, the so-called Tesla bulls were lashing out on Elon spending too much time with Twitter and leaving Tesla investors hanging there, and the list goes on and ...
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$Shopify (SHOP.US)$
Shopify $Shopify (SHOP.US)$ was among Wall Street's favorites companies in 2020 and 2021. It went up by 4x since COVID low. But things turned sour quickly, between November 2021 and October 2022, the stock dropped by 84%! It had a decent run in 2023 along with other unprofitable companies, but a 16% drop post earnings might be a wake-up call to the investors.
On the surface, Shopify beat both bottom lin...
Shopify $Shopify (SHOP.US)$ was among Wall Street's favorites companies in 2020 and 2021. It went up by 4x since COVID low. But things turned sour quickly, between November 2021 and October 2022, the stock dropped by 84%! It had a decent run in 2023 along with other unprofitable companies, but a 16% drop post earnings might be a wake-up call to the investors.
On the surface, Shopify beat both bottom lin...
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$Airbnb (ABNB.US)$
Airbnb $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ just released its Q4'2022 earnings result and the beat both bottom line (by 40%+) and top line. Airbnb is probably the very few tech companies in the bay area that are still hiring and expanding its headcount. What's so special about Airbnb?
Airbnb underperformed Nasdaq in the past year but the stock has done really well starting 2023
The story of Airbnb started in May, 2020. Due to the l...
Airbnb $Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ just released its Q4'2022 earnings result and the beat both bottom line (by 40%+) and top line. Airbnb is probably the very few tech companies in the bay area that are still hiring and expanding its headcount. What's so special about Airbnb?
Airbnb underperformed Nasdaq in the past year but the stock has done really well starting 2023
The story of Airbnb started in May, 2020. Due to the l...
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