Last week review 👉🏻Market Review + Hold Positions (06/01-10/01 2025)
Market behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ and $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Wednesdays and Fridays are absorbing funds;
$Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ Tuesdays and Wednesdays are absorbing funds.
SPX > NDX > RUT.
SPX appeared the fourth Follow the Day (FTD) of this round on Wednesday, and the recent structural adjustment in the past month is similar to the mini version of the adjustment in August to October 2023. Bulls are starting to gain advantage from here, and the probability of new highs is not far away; RUT's daily chart shows the 10-day moving average rising and crossing above the 20-day moving average, indicating initial signs of recovery.
Weekly Charts:
NDX and SPX have achieved high trading volumes above the 10-day moving average this week, while RUT has reached high trading volumes above the 30-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating the beginning of a potential medium-term uptrend; the long-term trend remains healthy.
Breadth:
Still in the red, but seeing a slow recovery trend once again.
Weekly Notes:
There is only one old name (UNFI) left in the system trading, with no change in RS rating.
Market Sentiment:
AAII continues to cool down, the bear ratio has reached a new high in nearly half a year, and only on Friday did we see counter-emotional market behavior.
The panic Index has completed a low-level three-wave oscillation and is still in panic at the moment;
From a historical reading of overall sentiment, the bulls have a significant advantage, you can smell a lot of similarities to the beginning of November 2023...

It's been a while since the last update, I've been watching the Squid Game, mainly because the Hong Kong stock market is too boring. After falling back from 21000 points earlier, the fluctuation range has become smaller, with support around 19500 points and resistance between 19500 and 20200 points only a few hundred points apart. Without any bullish news, it's a bit difficult to break through to 20200 and reach 20500, so I can only see if it can successfully test the bottom at 19500. If it breaks below the bottom, the trend will be quite pessimistic. I wonder how many participants the Hong Kong stock market will lose by dragging on like this? 🤣
Following the disappointment of the previous meeting's expectations, many stocks that rely on specific policy support measures plummeted, with the property and domestic demand sectors also experiencing significant declines. However, the domestic banks did not experience a sharp drop due to the delay in capital injection; most stocks remained strong a few days ago. Other individual stocks that have shown strength in the declining market, such as $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ The same $SMIC (00981.HK)$ etc.
Both the market and stock investors are paying attention to what kind of policies will be implemented towards China and other countries after Trump takes office. The US Dollar continues to rise, and Trump hints at imposing high tariffs, resulting in the Renminbi exchange rate hitting a 16-month low. In such an atmosphere and environment, it's not bad that Hong Kong stocks can avoid following the A-share market hitting a bottom; they are quite resilient! Of course, the selling pressure in the A-share market is much greater.
Subsequently, the central bank stated that it will gradually implement measures to maintain the Renminbi exchange rate and boost domestic demand. They will moderately reduce reserve requirements and interest rates, for example, by limiting large mainland funds from selling stocks and preparing for the largest single issuance ever in Hong Kong...

Global turmoil, the second investment opportunity under the backdrop of the Fed's interest rate cut - Singapore Reits ETF big picture!
Before taking stock, let's tell a story first:
In the past week, Chinese A-shares / H-shares (Hong Kong stocks) boomed. The SSE Composite Index rose by 21.4% in just 5 trading days. The Hang Seng Index rose by 21.8% in the past 10 trading days. The Chinext Price Index soared by 42% in just 5 trading days. On September 30, the SSE Composite Index rose by 8%, with a trading volume reaching an astonishing 2.37 trillion, breaking historical records. $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
Some netizens joked that the annual increase in the U.S. stock market was achieved by A-shares in a week. (This is like only seeing the thief eat meat, but not seeing the thief get beaten!)
The story is over, what does the frenzy in the Chinese stock market have to do with the Singapore Reits ETF we are going to talk about today?
Of course! At this time, many investors are lost! Should they chase? Will they be on the sidelines? If you are asking this prime minister, it can be said that the situation is very dangerous.
Because for any asset investment, what we need to do is plan ahead. This is the concept advocated by Hutu. You can only make money by being one step ahead of others. The Hutu Family Fund also holds Hong Kong stocks and A-shares. But after this wave of market boom, Hutu did not take any action. Now if you go chasing...

With the upcoming US presidential election, how will you strategize? At this critical moment, A-shares surge again. What kind of logic is this?
$SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$
Don't worry, when market logic confuses you, go back to the relationship between value and price, supply and demand, and market sentiment, then everything becomes clear.
In the past month, A-shares have indeed been stealing the limelight. Starting from the low point of 2600 points at the end of September, it skyrocketed to 3600 points. Then it began to oscillate and adjust. The rapid rise was triggered by a series of government policies stimulating the market, coupled with central liquidity injection. However, the explosive rise is not solely due to policies; the underlying logic is that valuations below 3000 points were cheap enough. With a low valuation as the foundation, the stimulus took effect. The investment targets introduced later can show the current valuation level of A-shares.
However, it is important to note that during sudden spikes, do not blindly chase after them. Previously, Hutu repeatedly reminded to plan ahead, not to wait until everyone thinks the market is good before rushing in. When everyone's emotions are running high, rushing in may lead to high entry points, and crowded places are prone to stampedes. Just like dancing, it is crucial to step to the beat. In the same market, when everyone calms down and there is a pullback, it might actually present an opportunity. Control the rhythm well, while also paying attention to systemic risks and diversifying asset allocation.
For local investors in Singapore, without an A-share account, they can only watch from the sidelines. But in reality, it might not be necessary to have an A-share investment account...

$CNOOC (00883.HK)$ China one up 8%+ you up only 1%+

Watching for continued chop until a clean break of 222.34 to the upside or 219.60 to the downside.
Larger Image: tradingview.com...
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$