Let me start with the conclusion, I am still optimistic about the trend of the A-share bull market this time. Personally, I also firmly believe that our country's economy is stable and improving, with steady progress and development.
Below are some key points of the press conference:
1. New and major equipment updates, consumer goods for trade-ins
Regarding the subsidy for trading in old home appliances, in addition to 8 categories of nationally designated products such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, Guangxi has added 7 new products including dishwashers, steam baking machines, robotic floor sweepers, smart door locks, and smart toilets, increasing the subsidized home appliance products to 15 categories. Guangxi has also introduced for the first time a subsidy program for trading in old electric bicycles.
I am not very optimistic about this because these products mostly belong to high-end durable goods, high expenses are one aspect, high transportation costs, these second-hand home appliances will not be resold, will it be energy-saving, low-carbon, and will handling these second-hand home appliances save energy? These items are not daily necessities and will not play a significant role in driving consumption.
Expand the consumption of retirement and childcare services.
The fundamental issue of population aging is the severe shortage of newborns. However, I believe the key issue lies in insufficient guarantee systems, with the retirement and childcare pressures being too great. Policy support may be bullish for medical.
Do not impose fines arbitrarily, conduct inspections arbitrarily, or seal off arbitrarily.
This indeed greatly assists business production by reducing arbitrary sealing off, inspections, and private gain under the guise of public interest.
Promote the stabilization of the real estate market.
Reducing mortgage rates, revitalizing existing land with special bond issuance, adjusting housing purchase restrictions, and digesting existing commodity houses. I really do not look good on real estate...
Below are some key points of the press conference:
1. New and major equipment updates, consumer goods for trade-ins
Regarding the subsidy for trading in old home appliances, in addition to 8 categories of nationally designated products such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, Guangxi has added 7 new products including dishwashers, steam baking machines, robotic floor sweepers, smart door locks, and smart toilets, increasing the subsidized home appliance products to 15 categories. Guangxi has also introduced for the first time a subsidy program for trading in old electric bicycles.
I am not very optimistic about this because these products mostly belong to high-end durable goods, high expenses are one aspect, high transportation costs, these second-hand home appliances will not be resold, will it be energy-saving, low-carbon, and will handling these second-hand home appliances save energy? These items are not daily necessities and will not play a significant role in driving consumption.
Expand the consumption of retirement and childcare services.
The fundamental issue of population aging is the severe shortage of newborns. However, I believe the key issue lies in insufficient guarantee systems, with the retirement and childcare pressures being too great. Policy support may be bullish for medical.
Do not impose fines arbitrarily, conduct inspections arbitrarily, or seal off arbitrarily.
This indeed greatly assists business production by reducing arbitrary sealing off, inspections, and private gain under the guise of public interest.
Promote the stabilization of the real estate market.
Reducing mortgage rates, revitalizing existing land with special bond issuance, adjusting housing purchase restrictions, and digesting existing commodity houses. I really do not look good on real estate...
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The policies provided at the National Economic Council meeting are quite specific, favorably impacting the financial sector significantly.
1. The first phase of the 500 billion fund company can pledge etfs from csi all share investment banking & to the central bank, and cash can be provided to financial institutions. Guoxin Council has also clearly stated that this money can only be used in the stock market, so this 500 billion will definitely be sought after and will receive policy preferences. Therefore, this 500 billion is expected to enter the stock market. The policy has not been implemented yet, which indirectly indicates that this bull market is not just a market correction, but a substantial promotion supported by national guarantee funds.
2. Providing loan discounts for share buyback and shareholding, many companies can take loans to increase their own stocks. The press conference mentioned special preferential policies, and I personally believe that the loan interest rates will be very low. This policy is also suitable for undervalued stocks and companies with relatively stable cash flow.
1. The first phase of the 500 billion fund company can pledge etfs from csi all share investment banking & to the central bank, and cash can be provided to financial institutions. Guoxin Council has also clearly stated that this money can only be used in the stock market, so this 500 billion will definitely be sought after and will receive policy preferences. Therefore, this 500 billion is expected to enter the stock market. The policy has not been implemented yet, which indirectly indicates that this bull market is not just a market correction, but a substantial promotion supported by national guarantee funds.
2. Providing loan discounts for share buyback and shareholding, many companies can take loans to increase their own stocks. The press conference mentioned special preferential policies, and I personally believe that the loan interest rates will be very low. This policy is also suitable for undervalued stocks and companies with relatively stable cash flow.
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I believe that after the sse composite index experiences a retracement and the first wave, it will rise to 3800 points, then the market will undergo the first pullback. After falling to 3480 points, it will rise again and maintain a medium to long-term bullish trend, breaking through 5000 points.
According to the theory of the Chinese economic cycle, the years of 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2015 are significant. Therefore, if it were not for the epidemic, this bull market should have started in 2022. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and international situation, this cycle has been slightly delayed. Personally, I believe that this bull market is a result of the economic cycle returning + strong policy support. However, in the long term, I am still bearish on the Chinese stock market because the Chinese economic situation has not fundamentally improved. The first point is that consumption is still insufficient, and the real economy's consumption is still seriously lacking, relaxing home loans and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises will not promote a significant increase in national consumption levels. Instead, a large amount of cash has actually flowed into the securities trading market. The second point is that there are still huge challenges in foreign trade and foreign investment. The main purpose of the tripartite joint statement this time is to use extreme measures to address the weak current state of the Chinese economy - using excessive force can lead to fracture easily. This strong medication will certainly be effective this time, but the effect may be a short-lived change for the better, eventually reverting to the old path.
Therefore, when choosing investments in this bull market, you should still maintain control and not buy everything for speculation. Investment should be selective. You can choose to speculate with some of your funds, but you should also keep a core portfolio for value investments. In this bull market, I am bullish on the AI computing sector, I believe 2...
According to the theory of the Chinese economic cycle, the years of 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2015 are significant. Therefore, if it were not for the epidemic, this bull market should have started in 2022. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and international situation, this cycle has been slightly delayed. Personally, I believe that this bull market is a result of the economic cycle returning + strong policy support. However, in the long term, I am still bearish on the Chinese stock market because the Chinese economic situation has not fundamentally improved. The first point is that consumption is still insufficient, and the real economy's consumption is still seriously lacking, relaxing home loans and loans for small and medium-sized enterprises will not promote a significant increase in national consumption levels. Instead, a large amount of cash has actually flowed into the securities trading market. The second point is that there are still huge challenges in foreign trade and foreign investment. The main purpose of the tripartite joint statement this time is to use extreme measures to address the weak current state of the Chinese economy - using excessive force can lead to fracture easily. This strong medication will certainly be effective this time, but the effect may be a short-lived change for the better, eventually reverting to the old path.
Therefore, when choosing investments in this bull market, you should still maintain control and not buy everything for speculation. Investment should be selective. You can choose to speculate with some of your funds, but you should also keep a core portfolio for value investments. In this bull market, I am bullish on the AI computing sector, I believe 2...
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15
Key points of the speech by Pan Gongsheng, President of the People's Bank of China:
1. Monetary policy adjustments:
o Three important monetary policy adjustments have been implemented since the beginning of this year, aimed at supporting the real economy.
o The tools used include reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering the policy interest rate, and driving down the lending market quote rate.
2. Policy measures:
o Reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expecting to release liquidity of about 1 trillion yuan.
o Lower the policy interest rate from 1.7% to 1.5%.
o Reduce the existing home loan interest rate, unify the minimum down payment ratio for home loans to 15%.
Introduce new policy tools to support the stable development of the stocks market.
3. Economic Data:
At the end of August, the scale of social financing increased by 8.1% year-on-year, Renminbi loans increased by 8.5%, and financing costs are at historical lows.
Key points of the speech by Li Yunze, Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau:
1. Risk prevention and strict supervision:
o. Focus on high-risk areas, promote the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and prevent risk spillover.
o. Promote the return of financial institutions to their essence, enhance the industry's sustainable development capabilities.
2. Promote development:
Increase support for the financing of "dual" and "dual new", enhance the financing guarantee for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.
Key points of the speech by Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission:
1. Capital market reform:
Emphasize enhancing market stability and improving the quality of listed companies.
Continue to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, supporting the development of equity public funds.
2. Optimize the investment environment:
Continue to promote the investment of medium and long-term funds...
1. Monetary policy adjustments:
o Three important monetary policy adjustments have been implemented since the beginning of this year, aimed at supporting the real economy.
o The tools used include reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering the policy interest rate, and driving down the lending market quote rate.
2. Policy measures:
o Reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expecting to release liquidity of about 1 trillion yuan.
o Lower the policy interest rate from 1.7% to 1.5%.
o Reduce the existing home loan interest rate, unify the minimum down payment ratio for home loans to 15%.
Introduce new policy tools to support the stable development of the stocks market.
3. Economic Data:
At the end of August, the scale of social financing increased by 8.1% year-on-year, Renminbi loans increased by 8.5%, and financing costs are at historical lows.
Key points of the speech by Li Yunze, Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau:
1. Risk prevention and strict supervision:
o. Focus on high-risk areas, promote the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and prevent risk spillover.
o. Promote the return of financial institutions to their essence, enhance the industry's sustainable development capabilities.
2. Promote development:
Increase support for the financing of "dual" and "dual new", enhance the financing guarantee for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises.
Key points of the speech by Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission:
1. Capital market reform:
Emphasize enhancing market stability and improving the quality of listed companies.
Continue to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, supporting the development of equity public funds.
2. Optimize the investment environment:
Continue to promote the investment of medium and long-term funds...
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