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xiaoniulinju小牛邻居 Male ID: 151712529
美股兴趣爱好者
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    I recently heard a word that I like: cognitive flexibility. It is the ability to quickly abandon previous ideas when the world changes or new information is encountered. Undoubtedly, mental flexibility is scarce. Changing one's mind is difficult because it is easier to deceive oneself and believe lies than to admit mistakes.
    Einstein used to dislike the concept of quantum physics.
    His own theory of physics was based on classical Newtonian physics. Newtonian physics believes that the universe operates in a pure, rational, and measurable way. However, quantum theory suggests that certain aspects of the physical world are unmeasurable. The act of measuring behaviors of subatomic particles itself changes the motion of the object. When trying to measure this part of the world, the best we can do is use probabilities and possibilities.
    This was almost heretical to Einstein, and he made it clear to his fellow physicists about his judgment and viewpoint on his quantum theory.
    In 1927, he said to a group of physicists, "One cannot formulate a theory based on a large number of 'possibilities.'" He said, "God does not play dice."
    His colleagues were very disappointed, saying, "Einstein, how could you say that?" Quantum physicist Paul Ehrenfest said. He felt that this great physicist was just as stubborn as those who once doubted Einstein's theory of relativity.
    Within five years, a group of quantum physicists have won the Nobel Prize, and the scientific community has recognized their contributions and verified the quantum theory.
    However, what was not mentioned at the award ceremony is that the award-winning group was nominated by Einstein himself.
    "I believe that..."
    Translated
    Change of thoughts.
    David Brooks distinguishes between the "advantages mentioned in one's resume" and the "advantages mentioned in eulogies".
    The advantages mentioned in one's resume are often related to income, position, and the size of their house; while the advantages mentioned in eulogies often refer to being helpful, caring, honest, and memorable.
    But ironically, many people aspire to the latter, but focus all their energy on the former.
    Excerpt from Morgan Housel, Feb 2023
    Translated
    About Advantages
    While I was in college, I had a professor who had previously worked for Adobe. He said the engineers who created Photoshop had no idea how users would utilize the details of each filter and tool in the software. They simply tried to develop every imaginable way to manipulate image tools and believed that artists and designers would discover the creative potential of their tools.
    Many things operate this way: their value to the world is not fully understood by their creators or predicted.
    Visa founder Dee Hock said, "A book is more than the sum of its author's words. It also includes everything you can imagine and add to it after reading."
    Author James Patterson said, "One of the best things about reading is that even when you're not reading, you can always think of things that extend from a book."
    Mark Twain said it best, he said 'Wagner's music sounds better than it is more intriguing'.
    Excerpt from Morgan Housel, Feb 2023
    Translated
    Lingering sound
    Columns Poor and rich
    William Vanderbilt is one of the richest inheritors in history. But don't envy him - because his life is not happy at all.
    Just before his death in 1920, Vanderbilt told The New York Times, "My life is destined to not be happy. Inherited wealth is a real obstacle to happiness. It corrupts morals, just like cocaine can destroy ambition."
    Interestingly, the other end of this topic - excessive ambition - can also be painful.
    Half a century ago, Mark Twain wrote a letter to William Vanderbilt's grandfather, Cornelius Vanderbilt:
    "How I pity you, truly. You are old and should rest, but you have to struggle, deny yourself, and lose your sleep and peace of mind because you need money so much. I sympathize with someone like you who is "poor"."
    Don't get me wrong, Vanderbilt has 70 million dollars. But you and I both know that what a person has is not just wealth. True wealth is being content with what one has in the present.
    Excerpt from Morgan Housel, Feb 2023
    Translated
    Poor and rich
    The physical attractiveness is something that everyone can see and understand intuitively, but is difficult to express in words.
    So what creates a charming face? It's difficult to describe. When you see a good example, you just know it's one.
    Several studies have tried to decipher the code of this facial appearance. I think the most compelling argument is that average faces are often the most attractive.
    For example, the software program generates the average face of 1000 people - a synthetic face with average cheekbone height, average interocular distance, average lip fullness, and so on. Particularly, cross-cultural (mixed-race) images are often the ones that people are most likely to be judged as the most attractive and are frequently used.
    One evolutionary explanation is that non-average features may have a higher than average reproductive risk. They may or may not affect reproductive health, but it's like nature is hinting, 'Why take the risk? Pursue the average level.'
    People like familiarity. This applies not only to faces, but also to products, professions, and styles. It's almost like nature's risk management system.
    Excerpt from Morgan Housel, Feb 2023
    Translated
    Average value of physical attractiveness.
    Author R.L. Stine is one of the best-selling authors of all time. His "Goosebumps" series of horror children's books has sold over 0.4 billion copies.
    But horror was not his first act. Stine spent the first two decades of his career writing children's joke books.
    He found that scaring people is easier than making them laugh.
    "Everyone has a different sense of humor, but we all share the same fears," he said. "Children are afraid of the dark, afraid of getting lost, afraid of going to a new place. These fears never change."
    Everyone has different personalities and tastes, but emotions - especially fear and greed - are often universal.
    Excerpted from Morgan Housel in February 2023.
    Translated
    Comparing humor and scare tactics.
    A year ago, after the huge bull market in 2021, I pointed out that investors chasing hot performance often end up getting burned, and just last week I also described how investors fleeing volatility may never get what they want.
    Blogger Ben Carlson recently pointed out that these two columns are exactly one year apart, like a bookend. They illustrate the opposite polarization of the stock market and stock investors, why is it so difficult to buy low and sell high?
    When you buy high and sell low, you are choosing the path of least resistance: in a bull market, buying high feels great. Celebrate! But selling at high prices—or simply not buying more at high prices—is difficult. It feels like being unable to dampen the mood at a party, you must participate, afraid of missing the best opportunity to make easy money.
    In a bear market, selling at low prices can bring relief (at least in the short term). At the same time, buying at low prices—or even maintaining the status quo when others panic—feels like throwing money around in chaos.
    Investing in buying and holding is often ridiculed as a blind 'set it and forget it' approach. But do not overlook the fact that resisting the powerful lure of market extremes requires immense emotional discipline.
    Setting it is relatively easy, forgetting it is the hardest. The investment industry bombards you every day with speculation about recent performance and pretends to predict the future, trying to make you buy high and sell low. That's why discipline is so important.
    Just like Cliff Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management ...
    Translated
    Why is it so difficult to buy low and sell high?
    The last word of actor David Cassidy was "I've wasted too much time in my life."
    Realizing it is too late in life is a terrifying thing. With many of us mindlessly playing with our phones all day, the situation of wasting time is becoming more common.
    Regrets are a dangerous liability because their ultimate costs often remain hidden for years or even decades. Decisions that are easy to make in the short term often come at a higher cost in the long run.
    Daniel Kahneman once said that one important quality of being an excellent investor is having an accurate understanding of your future regrets. If things unfold differently from what you expected, you need to accurately grasp and understand the direction.
    Regrets are the best definition of risk.
    Risk is not about how much money you might lose. It is not even about how you feel when you lose it - over time, many painful experiences turn into valuable lessons. The real risk is the possibility of regret even years or decades later.
    Jeff Bezos once described his decision to start Amazon, the online bookstore, in the mid-1990s: "The framework that makes decisions exceptionally easy is the framework for minimizing regrets. Imagine yourself at 80 years old, looking back on your life, and try to minimize regrets. It will be very important to not regret not trying to get involved in this thing called the internet when you're 80."
    "But what I know I would truly regret is not having participated when the Internet had been in its early stages."
    Translated
    Risks and regrets.
    This basically dates back to 14th century Italy, when bankers did business and trade on a large bench. They called it a bench, but it looked more like a large table.
    But for all intents and purposes, they'll sit on this bench. They have tables, and in Italy they basically sit on benches around tables. You can imagine places like Venice, where all these bankers sit in the yard and they do their banking business on this bench.
    If the bankers are insolvent and they are unable to continue borrowing or making payments, then publicly state and leave in shame to let people know that he is insolvent and is unable to continue and be out of the game. That person left a half-bench is a public sign of bankruptcy.
    The Italian phrase at the time was bancar rta. It meant a bad bench. It meant bankruptcy. This is where our word bankruptcy comes from.
    Excerpt from Feb5 2023 Investor Amnesia Jamie Catherwood
    Translated
    The origin of the term bankruptcy
    Investing once won't make you rich;
    only possible with continued investment;
    Exercising once will not make you healthy;
    It is only possible if you exercise relentlessly;
    Reading it once won't make you smart;
    It is only possible if you read consistently;
    Persistent action is the key to getting everything you want.
    Excerpted from Brian Feroldi Jan 31 2023
    Translated
    Persistent action