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MACRO
• Stocks End Higher as Earnings Season Kicks Off
The $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ rose 1.01%, to 34,564.59, accelerating gains in the final hour of trading. The $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ gained 1.12% to 4,446.59, and the $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ rallied 2.03% to 13,643.59.
• Jamie Dimon Sees 'Storm Clouds' Ahead For U.S. Economy Later This Year
The CEO of the biggest U.S. bank by assets W...
• Stocks End Higher as Earnings Season Kicks Off
The $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ rose 1.01%, to 34,564.59, accelerating gains in the final hour of trading. The $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ gained 1.12% to 4,446.59, and the $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ rallied 2.03% to 13,643.59.
• Jamie Dimon Sees 'Storm Clouds' Ahead For U.S. Economy Later This Year
The CEO of the biggest U.S. bank by assets W...
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Tech-led U.S. stock slump may weigh on Asia open
Asian stocks face a choppy start Friday after the worst slide in U.S. technology shares since 2020. Concerns about tightening monetary policy have also intensified, sparking a selloff in sovereign bonds.
Futures for Japan and Australia fell, while traders are waiting to see how Hong Kong performs when it reopens from a prolonged holiday. The $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ sh...
Asian stocks face a choppy start Friday after the worst slide in U.S. technology shares since 2020. Concerns about tightening monetary policy have also intensified, sparking a selloff in sovereign bonds.
Futures for Japan and Australia fell, while traders are waiting to see how Hong Kong performs when it reopens from a prolonged holiday. The $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ sh...
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2021 is a year of recovery. In Jan 2021, the world is promised with an effective vaccine for Covid and the reopening of economy. Fast forward to Dec 2021, we have battled the Delta variant and now battling the Omicron.
With the Covid as backdrop, the world has been kept busy. Some of the key events in the market include:
* Reddit trying to take on Wall Street. This marks the beginning of meme stocks in a big way. $GameStop (GME.US)$ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
* China and her common prosperity policies which have impacted the Chinese listed companies, especially Chinese Tech. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$
* $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ hit all time high of ~$67K and the growing popularity of NFT.
* $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ changed its name to Meta and the entire metaverse ecosystem.
* The sell off of growth stock in Dec (probably still ongoing now). We have seen some of the growth stocks came down more than 50% from its all time high. $Sea (SE.US)$ $Zoom Communications (ZM.US)$
At a personal level, 2021 has been a year of learning. I shifted my focus from Singapore dividend stocks such as $DBS (D05.SG)$ to US growth stocks. The learning curve is steep but satisfying. My take away from my investing journey this year:
1. Build strong conviction
Conviction is build after you have done your research. Having a strong conviction about the companies you owned helps you through volatility and prevent panic selling. For example, $Pinterest (PINS.US)$ has not done well recently. I went through my checklist and the thesis still looks intact. So despite the draw down, I have decided to hold.
2. Be Patient
Companies need time to execute and that will be reflected in their share price if they execute well. Very often this does not happen overnight. Sometimes the share price may not go up in a straight line, you may have to endure some drawdown before it is up again. It is therefore important to have patience.
By being patient, it help us to find the next 100 baggers.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
3. Be humble and keep learning
The more I learn, the more I know that I do not know. Sometimes I thought I have it all covered and Mr Market threw me a curveball.
I am grateful for the great community that @Investing with moomoo @Meta Moo @moomoo Singapore have built, allow us to exchange ideas and learn from one another. We may not agree with all the points, but having an open mind and exchanging ideas will make you a better investor.
@HopeAlways @Mcsnacks H Tupack @GratefulPanda @Dadacai @NANA123 @Mars Mooo
4. Do not FOMO and hindsight is always 20/20
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) can wipe you out if you tried to chase any of the stocks. I resisted very hard to not jump into $GameStop (GME.US)$.
Hindsight is a common feeling when we invest. Sometimes I did not buy a stock and it rocket and vice versa. I tell myself that hindsight is 20/20 and I can’t catch all the winners. Looking forward is better than regretting what have happened.
5. Have a journal
It can be an old fashioned notebook, Microsoft word, video or a post in Moomoo.
Have a journal and record my investing journey helps to crystallize my thoughts. I wrote down my reason of starting or exiting a position, my target and my thoughts.
With the virus living among us, 2021 has not been easy. We have certainly grown in resilient and hope that the resilience can be also shown in our investing journey.
Wish that 2022 will be a better year for all of us.
Cheers
With the Covid as backdrop, the world has been kept busy. Some of the key events in the market include:
* Reddit trying to take on Wall Street. This marks the beginning of meme stocks in a big way. $GameStop (GME.US)$ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
* China and her common prosperity policies which have impacted the Chinese listed companies, especially Chinese Tech. $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$
* $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ hit all time high of ~$67K and the growing popularity of NFT.
* $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ changed its name to Meta and the entire metaverse ecosystem.
* The sell off of growth stock in Dec (probably still ongoing now). We have seen some of the growth stocks came down more than 50% from its all time high. $Sea (SE.US)$ $Zoom Communications (ZM.US)$
At a personal level, 2021 has been a year of learning. I shifted my focus from Singapore dividend stocks such as $DBS (D05.SG)$ to US growth stocks. The learning curve is steep but satisfying. My take away from my investing journey this year:
1. Build strong conviction
Conviction is build after you have done your research. Having a strong conviction about the companies you owned helps you through volatility and prevent panic selling. For example, $Pinterest (PINS.US)$ has not done well recently. I went through my checklist and the thesis still looks intact. So despite the draw down, I have decided to hold.
2. Be Patient
Companies need time to execute and that will be reflected in their share price if they execute well. Very often this does not happen overnight. Sometimes the share price may not go up in a straight line, you may have to endure some drawdown before it is up again. It is therefore important to have patience.
By being patient, it help us to find the next 100 baggers.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
3. Be humble and keep learning
The more I learn, the more I know that I do not know. Sometimes I thought I have it all covered and Mr Market threw me a curveball.
I am grateful for the great community that @Investing with moomoo @Meta Moo @moomoo Singapore have built, allow us to exchange ideas and learn from one another. We may not agree with all the points, but having an open mind and exchanging ideas will make you a better investor.
@HopeAlways @Mcsnacks H Tupack @GratefulPanda @Dadacai @NANA123 @Mars Mooo
4. Do not FOMO and hindsight is always 20/20
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) can wipe you out if you tried to chase any of the stocks. I resisted very hard to not jump into $GameStop (GME.US)$.
Hindsight is a common feeling when we invest. Sometimes I did not buy a stock and it rocket and vice versa. I tell myself that hindsight is 20/20 and I can’t catch all the winners. Looking forward is better than regretting what have happened.
5. Have a journal
It can be an old fashioned notebook, Microsoft word, video or a post in Moomoo.
Have a journal and record my investing journey helps to crystallize my thoughts. I wrote down my reason of starting or exiting a position, my target and my thoughts.
With the virus living among us, 2021 has not been easy. We have certainly grown in resilient and hope that the resilience can be also shown in our investing journey.
Wish that 2022 will be a better year for all of us.
Cheers
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liked and commented on
In 2021, moomoo became the place where investors could share their opinions and communicate freely with each other. The frequent interactions between the enthusiastic mooers have positively impacted the community. Mooers are moving in the same direction: making profits and improving themselves. It would take a long time and great effort for our dear mooers to achieve these goals. Why don't we take a look at ten of the year's valuable market insights and investing tips?
Spoiler: There's a chance to get points if you read till the end.
*The selected articles are listed randomly.
ONE: Is investing in Trump's new merger a good idea?
@HuatLadywrote about his concerns on the merger of Trump's company and a SPAC called the Digital World Acquisition Corp. We have to admit that he has a point!
"Forgive me for predicting that most likely his company's stock will not be viable for long term investment goal."
View more: Will Donald be able to deal his Trump Card?
TWO: What do you think of meme stocks?
@Machiavellis3rdEyeused vivid language to call for rational investing and remind mooers to watch out for media manipulations. Do you agree with him?
"You ARE ALL MY ALLIES, regardless of your investment choices, politics, religions, colors, sex, or anything else! I say we start learning and adapting to their constantly evolving illegal games (media manipulation, PFOF, CB's) together. Then we will all figure out how to take that cheese - without getting TRAPPED."
View more: When will we get off this bus to CRAZYTOWN?
THREE: What can we learn from the big picture?
@WYCKOFFPROanalyzed the trend of the Russell 2020 with technical tools. Has the market proved his assumptions?
"The breakout of the Russell 2000 gives the first confirmation of the scenario of possible rotation from big cap stocks to small cap stocks."
View more: A Bargain you can't Ignore — This Laggard Breaks All Time High Last Week
FOUR: Will the strong momentum of recovery stocks fade?
On Nov 5, Pfizer introduced a new COVID-19 antiviral pill that is expected to treat 89% of acutely hospitalized patients and thus reduce the risk of death. @HuatEveranticipated that Pfizer's share price would continue to climb once the FDA approved the new antiviral pill. What do you think?
"They hold the promise of cutting down the risk of severe Covid 19 ailments, hospitalisation stays and even deaths, and if being taken at the early onsets of infection. "
View more: A Breakthrough in Covid 19 Antiviral Pills
FIVE: EV stocks skyrocketing: Good buy or goodbye?
@Deviltonconducted an in-depth analysis on one of the most popular stocks, $Rivian, and pointed out that patience is a virtue in trading.
"Human are always impatient, we will always have FOMO if we sit and wait till Friday, scared that it stops falling and starts to rise again. Yet buying all tomo may not allow you to buy at the best price." View more here.
SIX: How do you decide when to buy/sell?
@HopeAlwayssaid that there is no best way to determine when to buy and when to sell the stocks of indexes. The timings depend on investing goals, philosophies, and personal preferences.
"The three main risks are company, valuation and earnings risks. Once we are able to find a stock that that signals low risk based on these three conditions, it is time to buy. Whenever a negative change happens to any of the three conditions, it is time to sell."
View more: Buying and Selling Stocks
SEVEN: How do you know when to stop loss / take profit?
@Powerhousehas three underlying principles in stopping losses and taking profits. All investors should stay informed and closely observe trends to set price targets.
"For micro, there is a need to determine your present financial risk appetite figuratively. On the macro level, situations may have changed. Determining when is the most precise time to stop loss or take profit of a stock and milk the most out of it is extremely difficult."
View more: Stop the pain, take the happiness
EIGHT: What urges you to press the "trade" button?
@Panda2102has done macro research to sort out a list of companies and ranks them from different dimensions.
"The mission statement, the moat, the network effect, the switching cost, low cost advantage, optionality, the ratio for PE, PEG, Cash, Debt, Free Cash flow and the ownership of the company."
View more: Best time to press the trade button
NINE: How to build a portfolio with a windfall of $1 million?
@Mars Mooothinks that the Squid Game Multi-Portfolio comprises four parts: player 456, player 218, player 067, and a liquid one.
"The first portfolio is aimed at potential sectors for diversification and profits. The second is designed to high risk lead high returns. The next one intent on helping on thr way. While the last one shows that cash is king."
View more: The Squid Game Multi-Portfolios Portfolio
TEN: How to profit from short-selling?
@Mcsnacks H Tupackshared that short-selling is highly popular on Wall Street and often carried out by aggressive hedge funds.
"Hedge funds acting through collaborating market makers can create huge numbers of counterfeit shares that can overwhelm buying demand. They have turned it into a casino and everyone knows the house always wins in that scenario."
View more: The only way for short selling to be profitable is by cheating
This recap takes a deep dive into the market insights and investing tips that inspire us to become better investors. Did you find anything interesting or helpful?
Bonus
Please Leave your comments below and @ the mooer whose opinions impress you the most, and explain why they are attractive. The 1st, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th...(multiples of 10) mooers will be rewarded with 88 points each!
Duration: Now- Dec 28, 2021 11:59 PM SGT
moomoo annual ceremony is happening right now! Check it out here: 2021 in Review: Grow Together to the Moon!
Spoiler: There's a chance to get points if you read till the end.
*The selected articles are listed randomly.
ONE: Is investing in Trump's new merger a good idea?
@HuatLadywrote about his concerns on the merger of Trump's company and a SPAC called the Digital World Acquisition Corp. We have to admit that he has a point!
"Forgive me for predicting that most likely his company's stock will not be viable for long term investment goal."
View more: Will Donald be able to deal his Trump Card?
TWO: What do you think of meme stocks?
@Machiavellis3rdEyeused vivid language to call for rational investing and remind mooers to watch out for media manipulations. Do you agree with him?
"You ARE ALL MY ALLIES, regardless of your investment choices, politics, religions, colors, sex, or anything else! I say we start learning and adapting to their constantly evolving illegal games (media manipulation, PFOF, CB's) together. Then we will all figure out how to take that cheese - without getting TRAPPED."
View more: When will we get off this bus to CRAZYTOWN?
THREE: What can we learn from the big picture?
@WYCKOFFPROanalyzed the trend of the Russell 2020 with technical tools. Has the market proved his assumptions?
"The breakout of the Russell 2000 gives the first confirmation of the scenario of possible rotation from big cap stocks to small cap stocks."
View more: A Bargain you can't Ignore — This Laggard Breaks All Time High Last Week
FOUR: Will the strong momentum of recovery stocks fade?
On Nov 5, Pfizer introduced a new COVID-19 antiviral pill that is expected to treat 89% of acutely hospitalized patients and thus reduce the risk of death. @HuatEveranticipated that Pfizer's share price would continue to climb once the FDA approved the new antiviral pill. What do you think?
"They hold the promise of cutting down the risk of severe Covid 19 ailments, hospitalisation stays and even deaths, and if being taken at the early onsets of infection. "
View more: A Breakthrough in Covid 19 Antiviral Pills
FIVE: EV stocks skyrocketing: Good buy or goodbye?
@Deviltonconducted an in-depth analysis on one of the most popular stocks, $Rivian, and pointed out that patience is a virtue in trading.
"Human are always impatient, we will always have FOMO if we sit and wait till Friday, scared that it stops falling and starts to rise again. Yet buying all tomo may not allow you to buy at the best price." View more here.
SIX: How do you decide when to buy/sell?
@HopeAlwayssaid that there is no best way to determine when to buy and when to sell the stocks of indexes. The timings depend on investing goals, philosophies, and personal preferences.
"The three main risks are company, valuation and earnings risks. Once we are able to find a stock that that signals low risk based on these three conditions, it is time to buy. Whenever a negative change happens to any of the three conditions, it is time to sell."
View more: Buying and Selling Stocks
SEVEN: How do you know when to stop loss / take profit?
@Powerhousehas three underlying principles in stopping losses and taking profits. All investors should stay informed and closely observe trends to set price targets.
"For micro, there is a need to determine your present financial risk appetite figuratively. On the macro level, situations may have changed. Determining when is the most precise time to stop loss or take profit of a stock and milk the most out of it is extremely difficult."
View more: Stop the pain, take the happiness
EIGHT: What urges you to press the "trade" button?
@Panda2102has done macro research to sort out a list of companies and ranks them from different dimensions.
"The mission statement, the moat, the network effect, the switching cost, low cost advantage, optionality, the ratio for PE, PEG, Cash, Debt, Free Cash flow and the ownership of the company."
View more: Best time to press the trade button
NINE: How to build a portfolio with a windfall of $1 million?
@Mars Mooothinks that the Squid Game Multi-Portfolio comprises four parts: player 456, player 218, player 067, and a liquid one.
"The first portfolio is aimed at potential sectors for diversification and profits. The second is designed to high risk lead high returns. The next one intent on helping on thr way. While the last one shows that cash is king."
View more: The Squid Game Multi-Portfolios Portfolio
TEN: How to profit from short-selling?
@Mcsnacks H Tupackshared that short-selling is highly popular on Wall Street and often carried out by aggressive hedge funds.
"Hedge funds acting through collaborating market makers can create huge numbers of counterfeit shares that can overwhelm buying demand. They have turned it into a casino and everyone knows the house always wins in that scenario."
View more: The only way for short selling to be profitable is by cheating
This recap takes a deep dive into the market insights and investing tips that inspire us to become better investors. Did you find anything interesting or helpful?
Bonus
Please Leave your comments below and @ the mooer whose opinions impress you the most, and explain why they are attractive. The 1st, 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th...(multiples of 10) mooers will be rewarded with 88 points each!
Duration: Now- Dec 28, 2021 11:59 PM SGT
moomoo annual ceremony is happening right now! Check it out here: 2021 in Review: Grow Together to the Moon!
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time to go in 👍🏻
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Weekly market recap
Stock futures held steady in overnight trading Sunday after the S&P 500 notched its best week since February at a fresh record close, rebounding from a big sell-off triggered by fears of the omicron coronavirus variant.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ futures traded 35 points higher. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ futures inched up 0.1% and $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ futures were flat.
The overnight action followed a strong week on Wall Street as investors shrugged off a hot inflation reading. The blue-chip Dow gained 4% last week, breaking a four-week losing streak with its best weekly performance since March. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, last week, both posting their best weekly performance since early February.
Investors digested a jump in headline inflation data, which came in at 6.8% in November year-over-year for the biggest surge since 1982. The print was marginally higher than the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.
Here's a look at the return of S&P 500 sectors
This week ahead in focus
Investors this week are set to focus on the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy decision of 2021, which may include more signaling of a monetary policy adjustment amid elevated inflation and a strengthening economic backdrop.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are set to hold their two-day policy-setting meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which they will release their monetary policy statement and hold a press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The December statement will also be accompanied by an updated Summary of Economic Projections — the first since September — outlining members' expectations for economic conditions and interest rates over the next few years.
Many economists now expect that this month's meeting will serve as the platform for Fed officials to increase the rate of tapering of their asset-purchase program. For more than a year-and-a-half during the pandemic, the Fed bought Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a clip of $120 billion per month, with this program comprising a key tool in supporting the virus-stricken economy. Last month, the Fed began winding down this program, slowing its purchases by $15 billion per month in each of November and December as the economy showed signs that it could continue to recover from the pandemic without the added monetary policy support.
Retail sales
One key piece of economic data out this week will be November retail sales, offering a look at the strength of the consumer in the midst of the holiday shopping season.
Consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales rise by 0.8% in November compared to October, according to Bloomberg data. This would slow compared to October's 1.7% monthly increase, but still represent a fourth straight monthly increase.
"The gain should be supported by holiday sales with clothing showing the biggest sequential gain among major sectors," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer estimated in a note on Friday. "That said, we do think the risks are skewed to the downside given the sizable upside surprise in October's sales."
The bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October stemmed from strength in a variety of categories. Non-store retailers, or e-commerce platforms, posted a 4% sales increase, while gasoline station sales and electronics and appliance stores saw sales grow 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. Some economists suggested the monthly jump likely stemmed from consumers doing their holiday shopping earlier this year to try and get ahead of supply chain disruptions and shipping delays.
Other private data on consumption for November came in strong, further suggesting another solid monthly rise in retail sales. Adobe Analytics said in an update published Nov. 30 that consumers had already spent $109.8 billion online between Nov. 1 to Nov. 29, with this figure growing 11.9%, compared to last year.
Economic calendar
- Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release
- Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, November (98.4 expected, 98.2 in October); Producer Price Index (PPI), month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 0.6% in October); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); PPI year-over-year, November (9.2% expected, 8.6% in October); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, November (6.8% expected, 6.8% in October)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 10 (2.0% during prior week); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, November (0.8% expected, 1.4% in October); Import price index, month-over-month, November (0.8% expected, 1.2% in October); Business Inventories, October (1.0% expected, 0.7% in September); NAHB Housing Market Index, December (84 expected, 83 in November); FOMC Rate Decision
- Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 11 (199,000 expected, 184,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 4 (1.992 million during prior week); Housing starts, month-over-month, November (3.3% expected, -0.7% in October); Building permits, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 4.2% in October); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, December (30.0 expected, 39.0 in November); Industrial Production, month-over-month, November (0.7% expected, 1.6% in October); Capacity Utilization, November (76.8% expected, 76.4% in October); Manufacturing Production, November (0.7% expected, 1.2% in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, December preliminary (58.5 expected, 58.3 in November); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, December preliminary (57.2 in November); Markit U.S. Services PMI, December preliminary (58.0 in November); Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity, December (24 in November)
- Friday: No notable reports scheduled for release
Earnings calendar
- Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release
- Tuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release
- Wednesday: $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$ after market close
- Thursday: $Adobe (ADBE.US)$, $FedEx (FDX.US)$, $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ after market close
- Friday: $Darden Restaurants (DRI.US)$ before market open
Source: CNBC, jhinvestments, Yahoo Finance
Stock futures held steady in overnight trading Sunday after the S&P 500 notched its best week since February at a fresh record close, rebounding from a big sell-off triggered by fears of the omicron coronavirus variant.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ futures traded 35 points higher. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ futures inched up 0.1% and $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ futures were flat.
The overnight action followed a strong week on Wall Street as investors shrugged off a hot inflation reading. The blue-chip Dow gained 4% last week, breaking a four-week losing streak with its best weekly performance since March. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, last week, both posting their best weekly performance since early February.
Investors digested a jump in headline inflation data, which came in at 6.8% in November year-over-year for the biggest surge since 1982. The print was marginally higher than the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.
Here's a look at the return of S&P 500 sectors
This week ahead in focus
Investors this week are set to focus on the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy decision of 2021, which may include more signaling of a monetary policy adjustment amid elevated inflation and a strengthening economic backdrop.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are set to hold their two-day policy-setting meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which they will release their monetary policy statement and hold a press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The December statement will also be accompanied by an updated Summary of Economic Projections — the first since September — outlining members' expectations for economic conditions and interest rates over the next few years.
Many economists now expect that this month's meeting will serve as the platform for Fed officials to increase the rate of tapering of their asset-purchase program. For more than a year-and-a-half during the pandemic, the Fed bought Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a clip of $120 billion per month, with this program comprising a key tool in supporting the virus-stricken economy. Last month, the Fed began winding down this program, slowing its purchases by $15 billion per month in each of November and December as the economy showed signs that it could continue to recover from the pandemic without the added monetary policy support.
Retail sales
One key piece of economic data out this week will be November retail sales, offering a look at the strength of the consumer in the midst of the holiday shopping season.
Consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales rise by 0.8% in November compared to October, according to Bloomberg data. This would slow compared to October's 1.7% monthly increase, but still represent a fourth straight monthly increase.
"The gain should be supported by holiday sales with clothing showing the biggest sequential gain among major sectors," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer estimated in a note on Friday. "That said, we do think the risks are skewed to the downside given the sizable upside surprise in October's sales."
The bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October stemmed from strength in a variety of categories. Non-store retailers, or e-commerce platforms, posted a 4% sales increase, while gasoline station sales and electronics and appliance stores saw sales grow 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. Some economists suggested the monthly jump likely stemmed from consumers doing their holiday shopping earlier this year to try and get ahead of supply chain disruptions and shipping delays.
Other private data on consumption for November came in strong, further suggesting another solid monthly rise in retail sales. Adobe Analytics said in an update published Nov. 30 that consumers had already spent $109.8 billion online between Nov. 1 to Nov. 29, with this figure growing 11.9%, compared to last year.
Economic calendar
- Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release
- Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, November (98.4 expected, 98.2 in October); Producer Price Index (PPI), month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 0.6% in October); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); PPI year-over-year, November (9.2% expected, 8.6% in October); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, November (6.8% expected, 6.8% in October)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 10 (2.0% during prior week); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, November (0.8% expected, 1.4% in October); Import price index, month-over-month, November (0.8% expected, 1.2% in October); Business Inventories, October (1.0% expected, 0.7% in September); NAHB Housing Market Index, December (84 expected, 83 in November); FOMC Rate Decision
- Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 11 (199,000 expected, 184,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 4 (1.992 million during prior week); Housing starts, month-over-month, November (3.3% expected, -0.7% in October); Building permits, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 4.2% in October); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, December (30.0 expected, 39.0 in November); Industrial Production, month-over-month, November (0.7% expected, 1.6% in October); Capacity Utilization, November (76.8% expected, 76.4% in October); Manufacturing Production, November (0.7% expected, 1.2% in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, December preliminary (58.5 expected, 58.3 in November); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, December preliminary (57.2 in November); Markit U.S. Services PMI, December preliminary (58.0 in November); Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity, December (24 in November)
- Friday: No notable reports scheduled for release
Earnings calendar
- Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release
- Tuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release
- Wednesday: $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$ after market close
- Thursday: $Adobe (ADBE.US)$, $FedEx (FDX.US)$, $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ after market close
- Friday: $Darden Restaurants (DRI.US)$ before market open
Source: CNBC, jhinvestments, Yahoo Finance
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