Dadacai wrote a post · Sep 13, 2021 23:01

“California Streaming” and Aapl’s Short Term Outlook

After surging to an all-time high of USD157.26 a week ago, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ has slid 5.3% on the back of some negative news. With the launch of iPhone 13 and other updated products at “California Streaming” just round the corner, will the stock rebound?

What Caused the Slide?

1) The end of monopoly over payment platform in IOS App Store

In Epic Games v Apple, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent nationwide injunction prohibiting Apple from imposing anti-steering rules. This means with effect from December 2021, developers can direct Apple users to alternative forms of in-app purchase.

On 26 Aug 2021, Apple proposed a USD100m settlement in a different suit and clarified that developers are permitted to communicate directly with customers to inform them of other payment options if the customers consent to be contacted.

“Reader” apps (e.g. Netflix, Kindle and Spotify) are now allowed to add links to their own signup websites.

In related news, South Korea has also voted to pass an antitrust law that prevents operators of app markets from monopolising payment platforms. Google Play Store $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ is also going to be affected by this law.

All these will certainly reduce Apple’s lucrative income stream of 15-30% cut from payments made through its App Store in the future.

2) Increase in the cost of chips

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ which has 56% of the market share in the global semiconductor foundry industry, is implementing a price hike for its chips with effect from 1 Oct 2021. This will increase Apple’s production cost so Apple will either have to go for a lower profit margin or pass on the costs to the consumer in the form of higher prices. Higher prices can lead to lower demand.

Most other chip companies have already raised prices. In my opinion, since the cost increase affects all chip users and Apple has a pretty strong user base, I think the impact will be transitory.

3) Apple’s head of Project Titan has been poached by Ford

Doug Field’s departure, in addition to the loss of several top managers from the team in recent months, is seen as a sign of further delays to the Apple branded car. Apple has appointed Kevin Lynch, its Apple Watch head, to take over. Lynch’s expertise is in software development so this may mean Apple is focusing more on software features for the new car design.

Speculations about the launch date of the car have ranged between 2025 and 2027 or later. The latest word is that Apple will be developing the car alone instead of doing a partnership with automakers to avoid further delays. On the positive side, Apple recently hired two former Mercedes engineers, one of whom has experience in mass production of vehicles, vehicle steering, dynamics, software and project management.

What to Look Out for In “California Streaming”

iPhone 13 is expected to have a faster chip, a smaller display notch, a better camera and a bigger battery. Other that, it is not going to be too different from the highly successful iPhone 12 in terms of look and size. A new Airpod model is also rumoured to be in the launch.

Short Term Outlook

Apple is fundamentally a sound company and the progressive switch to 5G means more people will be buying 5G phones. Handphone sales for the current fiscal year ending in September is already 27% higher than last year. It is flush with cash and has pledged to increase share buybacks.

The antitrust pressure will no doubt impact its service business revenue but I think it can overcome this by reinventing itself and finding new ways to grow. Having said that, unless Apple delivers major surprises during “California Streaming” or some hugely positive news happens, a rally in the stock price may not happen so fast. I would trade with caution given the many warnings of impending correction in the overall market ( $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$).

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Disclaimer: The above is just sharing of my non-expert opinion. It is not financial advice or investment recommendation. Please do your due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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