$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$
观点网 11月17日，在人们对刚刚落下帷幕的"双十一"关注度未减的之时，阿里巴巴公开了2023财年第二季度业绩并举行了电话会议。
　　参加此次电话会议的有董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇、执行副主席蔡崇信以及首席财务官徐宏。
　　财务数据显示，2023财年第二季度阿里巴巴集团收入2071.76亿元，同比增长3%；经营利润251.37亿元，同比增长68%；经调整EBITA（息税折旧及摊销前利润）361.64亿元，同比增长29%。
　　放榜之前，市场是多数看好其盈利连跌四季后，有望恢复正增长。公布后的财务数据也算是不负众望，好于市场预期。
　　阿里人也对自己和未来充满了自信，正如张勇在发言中所说："不管潮起潮落，我们始终对自己充满信心，对未来更是充满信心"。
　　聚焦"双十一"
　　电话会议中，今年这个特殊的"双十一"多次被提及。自2009年举办该活动以来，各大平台也是首次未公开最终交易数据。
　　尽管阿里方面表示天猫"双十一"交易规模与去年持平（2021年GMV为5403亿元，较2020年同期增长8...

Come 2022, the global economy will be moving into the third year since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As governments and businesses gradually migrate their tactics from coping with a pandemic to an endemic, emergency stimulus is being reined back, which will shift the investment landscape in 2022.
Overall, we believe that staying invested remains crucial. The global recovery should continue to benefit risk assets such as global equities and corporate credit. However, rich valuation would mean there is a slimmer margin of error, and active selection in region and sector is even more critical.
Where are we in the economic cycle?
The answer varies depending on where we are in the world. Overall, we believe the global economy is still in the early to mid part of the economic cycle. The fastest recovery growth phase is likely to be behind us in developed economies such as the U.S. and Europe, but it is still accelerating in Asia and emerging markets.
We believe China’s growth rate could start to stabilize in 1H 2022 with modest fiscal and monetary stimulus. Domestic demand and services could replace exports in delivering growth for China in 2022.
In the U.S., We continue to believe the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) policy decisions would be driven by the progress of its economic recovery.
Overall, we expect to see the impulse of global growth shift from developed economies to Asia and select emerging markets.
What are the key political events to watch out for?
What changes are likely for China’s economic model?
On the minds of Chinese policy makers are long-term challenges such as environmental sustainability, low population growth, greater self-sufficiency in technology output and financial stability. To tackle these issues, corresponding initiatives have been introduced, related policies.
Admittedly, these policy initiatives may help China reset its economic model and improve growth potentials in the long run. However, Since July 2021, the intensive regulatory actions and property market curbs have weighed on domestic investment and consumption. Hence, policy easing is expected in 4Q 2021 and 1H 2022 to stabilize the economy, although the scale could be moderate.
Moving into 2022, credit conditions in the domestic property market may continue to improve to support first-time home buyers and housing construction projects. Compared with 2021, Chinese export growth is likely to slow as Southeast Asian exporters recover from the pandemic and take some of China’s share in global trade. Domestic demand may become the major growth driver in China’s economy.
In 2022, investors should consider the sectors with ample policy tailwinds. This implies decarbonization and new energy, self-sufficiency in technology hardware and resilient domestic technology supply chains should be the major themes to follow. Meanwhile, opportunities may appear in the consumer staples and services sectors when growth stabilizes and valuations still remain attractive.
When will inflation come down?
we would expect headline inflation around the world to come off the highs of 2021, but the undercurrent of firmer inflation could continue. Likewise, inflation in the U.S. is expected to come down from the 5-6% range. However, given the strong recovery momentum and some supply-side and labor market distortions, core inflation could remain above the Fed’s target of 2% for much of 2022. This could pressure the Fed to more seriously consider raising interest rates before the end of 2022.
Would central banks turn more hawkish?
As the bright spot of growth moves around the world, we expect developed market central banks to turn more hawkish first. Asian central banks could be more willing to wait for an economic rebound to take shape before they consider raising policy rates. Despite the prospects of higher policy rates and government bond yields in the next 1-2 years, real interest rates are likely to remain low or even negative in some cases.
How should Asian investors allocate to equities, fixed income and other assets?
Since the global economy is still in the early (for Asia and selected emerging markets) and mid (for the U.S. and Europe) parts of the economic cycle, risk assets such as equities and corporate credit are likely to, on a risk-adjusted basis, outperform conservative assets such as fixed income and cash.
For equities, international diversification remains key. The emphasis can shift gradually from developed markets, such as the U.S. and Europe, back toward China and Asia. China is still going through an economic slowdown brought on by policy changes and regulatory reforms. These underlying conditions are unlikely to change drastically in 2022, but the underperformance of Chinese equities in 2021 has already factored in some of these challenges. Moreover, there are sectors, such as decarbonization and import substitutions, that can enjoy policy tailwinds. Rising vaccination rates across Asia should allow for a more sustained domestic recovery and potential for earnings upgrade as the region’s governments adopt their strategies to live with COVID-19.
$SPDR 标普500指数ETF (SPY.US)$ $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ $沪深300 (000300.SH)$

能抓住老鼠就是好猫。中国股票、港股、新加坡或美国股票，能赚钱就是好股。最近阿里巴巴股价大幅下跌，可能会继续下跌，但就像有人在之前说过的，恐惧时买入。如果阿里巴巴反弹，你会发财。最后，要做好自己的尽职调查，并用你能承受亏损的资金投资。

除非中国政府放不要再打压和监管部门放松一下，就有就会反弹

$蔚来 (NIO.US)$ Chinese premium electric vehicle maker Nio’s stock (NYSE: NIO) has declined by about 19% over the last month, considerably underperforming the S&P 500 which remained roughly flat over the same period. The decline follows the company’s lighter than expected delivery guidance for Q4 (see below) and broader selling pressure in U.S. listed Chinese stocks after ride-hailing firm Didi Chuxing indicated that it intends to delist from the NYSE less than six months after going public, amid regulatory pressures in both the U.S. and China. However, the longer-term outlook for Nio hasn’t really changed in our view, and the current issues appear to be only transitory. Demand for EVs in China remains strong, and Nio is looking to bolster its production capacity at its Hefei plant to 240,000 vehicles a year by the first half of 2022. The company is also expanding its product line, with its first sedan, the ET7, likely to begin deliveries as soon as the first quarter of next year, with two other models also in the pipeline for a 2022 launch. This should set Nio up for solid growth in the coming years.

$花旗集团 (C.US)$ 花旗集团和瑞银的策略师在本周的报告中指出，中国公司在纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克交易的美国存托凭证(ADR)"过度调整"，现在可能是开始讨价还价的时候。花旗集团的Alicia Yap表示，市场目前高估了中国概念股的公司风险。Yap还补充道：我们认为，对于那些在香港、中国和美国上市的大型存托股，这次抛售是一个很好的买入机会。
$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ $腾讯控股(ADR) (TCEHY.US)$ $蔚来 (NIO.US)$

$蔚来 (NIO.US)$ NIO DAY > any risks
lets see this thing run !