Nothing can stop this market tops
Given the uncertainty over geopolitical risks in the past few days, markets just unrelentingly moved to the upside in today's trading session, all worries seem to be wiped out completely.
(S&P 500: 3246.29 +0.35% DOW: 28703.38 +0.24% NASDAQ: 9071.47 +0.56%)
One of the things that's unusual in the circumstance of markets is no any of the risks has been pricing in as there is no sign of spikes in the volatility in terms of $标普500波动率指数 (.VIX.US)$ or $VVIX Index (.VVIX.US)$.
(S&P 500: 3246.29 +0.35% DOW: 28703.38 +0.24% NASDAQ: 9071.47 +0.56%)
One of the things that's unusual in the circumstance of markets is no any of the risks has been pricing in as there is no sign of spikes in the volatility in terms of $标普500波动率指数 (.VIX.US)$ or $VVIX Index (.VVIX.US)$.
If you take a look at the $标普500波动率指数 (.VIX.US)$, specifically comparing the quotes between Jan 2nd and 3rd, the VIX is like never happened. All of the risks hit on last Thursday into Friday trading session, VIX spiked up to 16 levels then completely subsided, feels like the market is almost pricing of a zero probability of anything occurring to sustain that risk.
Under the circumstance, the market is just like saying even if there is a retaliation it simply doesn't matter, I will just keep staring and keep going because of the Fed, they will have our backs.
For the further outlook, as we still stayed on positive on equities entering 2020. Yes, there is a potential that the Iran-US tensions escalate and lead to a risk-off or a hedging move, but historically limited war campaigns, as well as terrorist incidents tended to have only limited impact on equities. Further, the companies are expected to enjoy inflows during the first-quarter earnings, and on scheduled completion of phase 1 trade deal and some relevant economic quotes that going to be remained solid. So as the bearish participations have been light, we stay bullish before the next US recession strikes but also keep in mind, some minor sell-side activities could be triggered anytime later based on those headlines that could lead to a downside price action of the market place.
Under the circumstance, the market is just like saying even if there is a retaliation it simply doesn't matter, I will just keep staring and keep going because of the Fed, they will have our backs.
For the further outlook, as we still stayed on positive on equities entering 2020. Yes, there is a potential that the Iran-US tensions escalate and lead to a risk-off or a hedging move, but historically limited war campaigns, as well as terrorist incidents tended to have only limited impact on equities. Further, the companies are expected to enjoy inflows during the first-quarter earnings, and on scheduled completion of phase 1 trade deal and some relevant economic quotes that going to be remained solid. So as the bearish participations have been light, we stay bullish before the next US recession strikes but also keep in mind, some minor sell-side activities could be triggered anytime later based on those headlines that could lead to a downside price action of the market place.
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