$富途控股 (FUTU.US)$ a post from FUTU HK STRONG HOLD 🚀 一、“政策...
$富途控股 (FUTU.US)$
a post from FUTU HK
STRONG HOLD 🚀
一、“政策没落地”论我昨天发帖也说了,没有看到任何新增政策风险。《个人信息保护法》已然落地,类似欧洲的GDPR和美国加州的CCPA:对电商、社交等依赖广告收入的平台影响大,对券商金融行业没有什么直接影响。况且富途的活跃用户和新增用户大部分都在HK,SG,包括一部分US,据说最近CA也要开始发力了。空头一般会拿教培和滴滴来说事。教培被搞,完全是因为教育是国家根基,涉及到国家生育政策和教育政策。民间苦教育久矣,没有讨论余地;滴滴被搞,阴谋论我是不信的,我觉得就是跟地图数据直接相关。要减少绝对垄断地位的App掌握完整道路数据,尽量让数据分散开。滴滴旗下的花小猪一直在Travel榜Top10,不见任何问题。至于说“换汇”问题,也是银行该担心的,轮不到富途。就算按$200时的富途来看,体量也小到不会有人惦记。监管会喜欢空头的这种行为吗?我认为回顾中华民族几千年的历史可以看出,监管最讨厌的就是挑拨对立情绪的那一小撮人。咱泱泱大国,富途又一直在唱多中国,心怀中概,咱有点基本的判断,好吧?二、炫耀侮辱论这个是比较恶心。因为多头从$200以来回撤很多利润,亏损惨重。大部分人是从$100+开始买入的,所以空头就会各种炫耀“我赚了你的钱”“你亏的好难受”“你再相信富途就是**”之类话骗你放弃坚持到现在的筹码,压低股价好buy to cover。前两天,某人用同样的方法也来恶心我,可惜我的成本空头估计得借5倍volume才能砸到。发现忽悠不了我减仓,就各种“秀肌肉”“吹牛逼”,如跳梁小丑一般。我承认,一只股票我从200拿到60,比专业trader肯定不如,但你空个200股也在那吹牛逼真是让我哭笑不得。晒出你好几个券商的持仓再来脱裤子吧:)三、基本面受损论无非是,最近会有很多人离开股市或者投奔友商。这个也很简单,你看看周围牛牛圈的好友走了没;你自己开个友商账户体验一下反人类的UI设计就知道答案了。反正我身边离场走人的很少。倒是有几个尝试注册了其他友商结果发现那体验真的是恶心的要吐,客服也联系不上。
以上就是空头的三种伎俩和我的解读。
最后说一下富途可以开始看空的几个因素:1、叶子哥完全不再活跃在牛牛圈,使得富途丧失Founder-lead的标签;2、HK的地位彻底丧失,使得富途的主要市场衰落;3、出现一家特别牛逼的友商在产品研发运营等各方面碾压富途。4、整个市场崩盘,就像COVID-19刚爆发的那几个礼拜。1、我觉得不太可能,叶子哥的热情在这里,一个人的性格很难改变。我认为叶子哥是可以媲美Elon Musk的。2、我觉得这更不可能。大家可以去多听一下大领导的讲话是怎么评价HK地位的。3、这个发生的概率我认为等同于阿里出一款社交App打败微信或者Facebook不再到处山寨。4、这个看最近会不会有什么大事情发生了。我觉得不会有。哈哈。当然,我说的也是我自己的判断。欢迎点赞转发。English version:
The shorts are under the pressure of interest cost and squeeze risk, so they will overwhelmingly spread negative news and comments. I want to make some comments on three major points from them.
1, Regulation RiskAs I made a post yesterday, the PIPL(Personal Information Protection Law) won't affect much on FUTU. It's similar to GDPR, CCPA and a bit similar to Apple's action on Facebook. Only companies that hold a massive number of users (>100M) would need to be concerned about the impact on their stock price.The shorts would somehow compare FUTU with TAL/EDU and DIDI. However, they are different.* TAL/EDU are companies that would affect the fundamental national education policy. So the govt would not let them be too big to regulate.* DIDI is too dominant in this market, and the govt would like to split its data into different small apps to lower the risk of leaking data that affects national security. Huaxiaozhu, a subsidiary fork app of Didi, is still online and ranked Top 10 of Travel category on App Store.2, Bully on LongsThis is sick since most of the longs had a cost above $100 this year. Shorts would show off their profits compared to longs' loss.On the community of FUTU HK, someone commented on one of my threads, laughing at my loss and showing off his profits by shorting the stock. I didn't get any emotional because my cost was too low for me to worry about. And he kept mocking other users and me hysterically like a clown in my feeds afterward, trying to "warn" us that the stock would go lower and he'll take our profits if we don't sell now.If you are longs, make sure you don't have too much margin because I can't promise the stock will rise (though I don't think it can go any lower)3, Impact on FundamentalsShorts would exaggerate the negative impact on FUTU's business as the price drop would let people cash out or switch to other competitors.Well, IMO, this situation could happen only if one of the competitors would create a robust compelling app. I don't find out any of my friends switch to other brokers on FUTU/Moomoo. However, some did try and got back immediately as they realized how poor the other apps were.---Finally, let me share some of my views that the stock would drop:1, We don't see any activity of CEO Leaf in the FUTU community. It would make FUTU a non-Founder-led company. I don't think this is likely to happen because Leaf ran his company like this for years.2, Hong Kong lost its strategy status, which I don't think it's going to happen because many leaders had made it clear.3, A competitor launches an app that is way much better than FUTU/Moomoo. Well, I think it's as hard as Alibaba creating an app to take over WeChat in China.4, The economy is in free fall - well, I don't think it's going to happen unless .... (you know^_^ )
a post from FUTU HK
STRONG HOLD 🚀
一、“政策没落地”论我昨天发帖也说了,没有看到任何新增政策风险。《个人信息保护法》已然落地,类似欧洲的GDPR和美国加州的CCPA:对电商、社交等依赖广告收入的平台影响大,对券商金融行业没有什么直接影响。况且富途的活跃用户和新增用户大部分都在HK,SG,包括一部分US,据说最近CA也要开始发力了。空头一般会拿教培和滴滴来说事。教培被搞,完全是因为教育是国家根基,涉及到国家生育政策和教育政策。民间苦教育久矣,没有讨论余地;滴滴被搞,阴谋论我是不信的,我觉得就是跟地图数据直接相关。要减少绝对垄断地位的App掌握完整道路数据,尽量让数据分散开。滴滴旗下的花小猪一直在Travel榜Top10,不见任何问题。至于说“换汇”问题,也是银行该担心的,轮不到富途。就算按$200时的富途来看,体量也小到不会有人惦记。监管会喜欢空头的这种行为吗?我认为回顾中华民族几千年的历史可以看出,监管最讨厌的就是挑拨对立情绪的那一小撮人。咱泱泱大国,富途又一直在唱多中国,心怀中概,咱有点基本的判断,好吧?二、炫耀侮辱论这个是比较恶心。因为多头从$200以来回撤很多利润,亏损惨重。大部分人是从$100+开始买入的,所以空头就会各种炫耀“我赚了你的钱”“你亏的好难受”“你再相信富途就是**”之类话骗你放弃坚持到现在的筹码,压低股价好buy to cover。前两天,某人用同样的方法也来恶心我,可惜我的成本空头估计得借5倍volume才能砸到。发现忽悠不了我减仓,就各种“秀肌肉”“吹牛逼”,如跳梁小丑一般。我承认,一只股票我从200拿到60,比专业trader肯定不如,但你空个200股也在那吹牛逼真是让我哭笑不得。晒出你好几个券商的持仓再来脱裤子吧:)三、基本面受损论无非是,最近会有很多人离开股市或者投奔友商。这个也很简单,你看看周围牛牛圈的好友走了没;你自己开个友商账户体验一下反人类的UI设计就知道答案了。反正我身边离场走人的很少。倒是有几个尝试注册了其他友商结果发现那体验真的是恶心的要吐,客服也联系不上。
以上就是空头的三种伎俩和我的解读。
最后说一下富途可以开始看空的几个因素:1、叶子哥完全不再活跃在牛牛圈,使得富途丧失Founder-lead的标签;2、HK的地位彻底丧失,使得富途的主要市场衰落;3、出现一家特别牛逼的友商在产品研发运营等各方面碾压富途。4、整个市场崩盘,就像COVID-19刚爆发的那几个礼拜。1、我觉得不太可能,叶子哥的热情在这里,一个人的性格很难改变。我认为叶子哥是可以媲美Elon Musk的。2、我觉得这更不可能。大家可以去多听一下大领导的讲话是怎么评价HK地位的。3、这个发生的概率我认为等同于阿里出一款社交App打败微信或者Facebook不再到处山寨。4、这个看最近会不会有什么大事情发生了。我觉得不会有。哈哈。当然,我说的也是我自己的判断。欢迎点赞转发。English version:
The shorts are under the pressure of interest cost and squeeze risk, so they will overwhelmingly spread negative news and comments. I want to make some comments on three major points from them.
1, Regulation RiskAs I made a post yesterday, the PIPL(Personal Information Protection Law) won't affect much on FUTU. It's similar to GDPR, CCPA and a bit similar to Apple's action on Facebook. Only companies that hold a massive number of users (>100M) would need to be concerned about the impact on their stock price.The shorts would somehow compare FUTU with TAL/EDU and DIDI. However, they are different.* TAL/EDU are companies that would affect the fundamental national education policy. So the govt would not let them be too big to regulate.* DIDI is too dominant in this market, and the govt would like to split its data into different small apps to lower the risk of leaking data that affects national security. Huaxiaozhu, a subsidiary fork app of Didi, is still online and ranked Top 10 of Travel category on App Store.2, Bully on LongsThis is sick since most of the longs had a cost above $100 this year. Shorts would show off their profits compared to longs' loss.On the community of FUTU HK, someone commented on one of my threads, laughing at my loss and showing off his profits by shorting the stock. I didn't get any emotional because my cost was too low for me to worry about. And he kept mocking other users and me hysterically like a clown in my feeds afterward, trying to "warn" us that the stock would go lower and he'll take our profits if we don't sell now.If you are longs, make sure you don't have too much margin because I can't promise the stock will rise (though I don't think it can go any lower)3, Impact on FundamentalsShorts would exaggerate the negative impact on FUTU's business as the price drop would let people cash out or switch to other competitors.Well, IMO, this situation could happen only if one of the competitors would create a robust compelling app. I don't find out any of my friends switch to other brokers on FUTU/Moomoo. However, some did try and got back immediately as they realized how poor the other apps were.---Finally, let me share some of my views that the stock would drop:1, We don't see any activity of CEO Leaf in the FUTU community. It would make FUTU a non-Founder-led company. I don't think this is likely to happen because Leaf ran his company like this for years.2, Hong Kong lost its strategy status, which I don't think it's going to happen because many leaders had made it clear.3, A competitor launches an app that is way much better than FUTU/Moomoo. Well, I think it's as hard as Alibaba creating an app to take over WeChat in China.4, The economy is in free fall - well, I don't think it's going to happen unless .... (you know^_^ )
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Bull Run : 谁是作家
SANDRO 善子 : 这次富途事件可否用 杞人忧天来形容?
victories 楼主 Bull Run : 别人。兄弟,你的评论是什么?
victories 楼主 SANDRO 善子 : 很可能
Bull Run victories 楼主 : 说得好。完全同意。
victories 楼主 Bull Run : 很长!