个人中心
登出
中文简体
返回
登录后咨询在线客服
回到顶部

S&P 500 bubble could create a 'systemic risk' by 2023, Stifel says: At the Open

Central banks could drive stocks higher all the way through to the middle of 2023, but that would create a serious economic risk when the bubble bursts, according to Stifel.
"We calculate that a bubble driven by current central bank real yield repression may take the $标普500ETF-SPDR (SPY.US)$to 5,500 mid-2022 and 6,750 mid-2023, creating a systemic risk when it bursts," Stifel says.
Real rates saw a jump higher yesterday, but are still historically low. The 10-year inflation-protected $通胀债券指数ETF-iShares (TIP.US)$is at -0.98%.
There have been just two equity bubbles in Wall Street's history: 1928-1928 and 1998-1999 and "neither ended well for stock or economic conditions," Stifel says.
Now, a third bubble is "percolating," the team adds.
问题是美联储是倾向于抑制泡沫风险还是放任资产价格飙升,"当泡沫破裂时,放大了金融风险."
美联储能做些什么? 斯蒂费尔表示,观察10年实际收益率对评估市场风险和S&P修正的可能性至关重要。
斯蒂费尔表示,为了防止风险,美联储可能会"更加鹰派,同时拜登/耶伦二人组可能会支持美元走强( $美元指数 (USDindex.FX)$),这种美联储的转变伴随着美元走强(在供给紧缩的通胀环境中,强势美元可以抑制能源和食品通胀,并提高BBb在参议院温和派中克服通胀担忧的机会,并影响提高美国债务上限的和解法案的时间。
“这些因素的综合可能提高美国实际收益率,降低S&P 500的市盈率。”
关注周期和防御性的股票。 在等权重基础上,周期性股票领涨了市场从疫情低点的反弹。
联邦储备委员会和政府采取上述行动将削弱消费品行业对防御性行业的通胀预期。
Stifel建议在像公用事业( $公用事业精选行业指数ETF-SPDR (XLU.US)$)、消费品稳定( $日常消费品精选行业指数ETF-SPDR (XLP.US)$)以及医疗保健( $医疗保健精选行业指数ETF-SPDR (XLV.US)$)等板块超配一些防御性股票,以便在当前季度和2022年第一季度获得收益。
BMO表示,即使利率上升,仍然火热的科技板块明年可能会表现更好。
S&P 500 bubble could create a 'systemic risk' by 2023, Stifel says: At the Open
免责声明:社区由Moomoo Technologies Inc.提供,仅用于教育目的。 更多信息
1
2
39
+0
11
原文
举报
浏览 29.2万
评论
登录发表评论

查看更多评论...