$百度 (BIDU.US)$$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$$腾讯控股(ADR) (TCEHY.US)$$虎牙 (HUY...
$百度 (BIDU.US)$ $阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$ $腾讯控股(ADR) (TCEHY.US)$ $虎牙 (HUYA.US)$ $斗鱼 (DOYU.US)$ The way I see it, buying these companies is a bet on the actions of the Chinese government. Personally, I think this is extremely risky. I have less than 2% of my total portfolio in these companies and my plan is to continue adding a bit every month in case I turn out to be wrong, but keeping my overall exposure to about 2.5%. However, I know that a lot of retail investors are bullish on these companies. There are good reasons behind it, but I think it's extremely important to consider the risk here and manage the exposure. As Peter Lynch likes to say, be careful when thinking that a company cannot go lower because it can and often it will. DOYU, HUYA, Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent can very well turn out to be value traps for the next year. We still haven't seen any signs that the bearish trend in their prices has been reverted. If you want to buy the dip, that's fine, but just be careful and manage your exposure. I'm not a financial advisor and you can make up your own mind, but just do your research and think about the risk. I don't think we will see a big rise in price until we see a catalyst and I think there are stocks, even indexes, that can offer better returns over the next 12 months.
Overall, I'm neutral, given China's recent regulation record plus the slowing revenue and earnings growth seen. However, I also think that the market is punishing those companies way too much so I think they're actually trading at a decent discount, which is why I continue to build a position even though it's a smallish one.
What do you think? Bullish, neutral or bearish?
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JG25 : 我认为中共不会 “彻底摧毁” 这些公司...但是我确实认为实施的这些法规对于整个国家的长期增长是必要的... 我就是这么想的哈哈
你在寻找哪些股票/指数?请分享!
yy_manman JG25 : 我同意!归根结底,中共只会为国家做最有利的事情,即使它会摧毁这些大军团的市场价值。
我认为这些公司能够在这些监管和外部力量无法控制的变化中幸存下来,它们将来会很好!
Daniel Zn JG25 : 对中国有利的东西对资本家和中国公司的股价不利
干练的佩恩 : 因为我们是中国人,对这些公司有绝对的信心。即使想对投资而言是不理智的。但是我们义无反顾。
71173200 JG25 : 作为消费者,淘宝现在无法与京东和PDD竞争
71173200 干练的佩恩 : 今年买的东西京东和拼多多为主,淘宝真的是价格又高客服也不行。阿里云政府已经不用它了。未来怎样,加上整个现在阿里爆出的企业丑闻。我两年前很看好阿里,现在真不一定
SunBird 71173200 : 是什么丑闻?
s t e a d y 干练的佩恩 :
丁蟹NA 71173200 : 我是做云服务的,当然不是阿里云。这个需求,是指数性成长的。政府用不用就还好。这玩意绝逼指数性成长。现在所有的算力都云服务化了,数据分析,训练人工智能。然而算力在这个年代是指数性成长的。云服务明显是最优解。我就等个人电脑云服务话,到时候直接干翻苹果如同干翻诺基亚。
冬の树 干练的佩恩 :