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中国股票触底了吗?

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Investing 101 发表了文章 · 2021/12/06 00:19
我将展示一些我对KWEb和阿里巴巴进行的技术面分析。

从年初开始,阿里巴巴一直在不断下跌,投资者仍然不知道当前价格是否已经触底。KWEb是中国互联网ETF,持有约50多个大型中国科技股票,自年初以来一直受到抛售的影响。

阿里巴巴跌了约65%,KWEb跌了约62%。这两只股票都处于熊市区域。如果有人告诉你,这两只股票去年的估值会下跌到目前这个程度,没人会认真对待。但是现在我们已经看到了股价在一年内能下跌60%的情况,人们开始想知道这次下跌何时会停止。然而,我们都知道,股票不仅仅只会朝一个方向走。总会有回调和反弹的,这是好的风险回报比的波段交易机会。
BABA
阿里巴巴在11月18日财报不佳后遭遇了巨大的抛售,并自那时以来一直在自由落体。即使是我身边的长线牛股阿里巴巴的支持者也开始担心是否已经见底。当阿里巴巴在财报不佳后遭遇大规模抛售时,跌幅确实放缓,这表明卖压正在减弱。然而由于成交量较低,这也显示出那些水平上没多少买家。它甚至很轻松地突破了关键支撑位129,那是中美贸易战的低点。

然而,上周五,有一个技术反弹的信号,因为出现了大量的交易量,然而它未能突破关键支撑位108。蜡烛的上影线大约是蜡烛实体的39%。这通常是一个很好的迹象,表明买家正在进入,供应正在减少。这意味着上涨行情很快就会开始。截至发帖时,香港的阿里巴巴似乎正在回升,这对我们来说是后续美国市场开盘时会发生什么的早期信号。

然而,这种上涨行情并不意味着整体趋势逆转,只能是短期行情。因此,请注意阻力位,以了解您的入场和离场点。
中国股票触底了吗?
KWEB
Lastly onto KWEb, it has been in a consolidating trend since late july after it broke the 60 and 55 support in a huge sell off due to tech clampdown. My fibonacci level for a buy entry was at the 39 point. It was a long wait as I did thought we would go down quite soon after hitting 43 lows. However with the consolidation that happened over the few months hovering above 43 and below 55. It was looking more like an accumulation phase. Thus meaning 2 things, either a break up of the wedge to transit towards the mark up phase, or a break down of the wedge to activate the ''Spring'' before the mark up phase. Springs are usually a false break down to catch the stop losses of traders and shake out the final batch of people who are waiting to cut loss should it break the previous lows.

It broke down the wedge on 26th Nov and that was when I mentioned to keep a lookout on the 39 price point as it will very likely rebound there. If it rebounds off 36-39 price point and breaks back into the 43.40, we could very likely start to see the transition towards mark up phase. Similarly large volume day on friday with a rebound off the 39 key support level which was COVID sell off lows. Wick to spread is 45% and this is a huge signal of an incoming rebound due to lack of supply or demand overpowering supply. We call this the selling climax. This is a good set up for a swing to the upside.

Keep a look out on the resistance levels above to see if it does break back above to have a confirmation of the accumulation phase coming to an end and the transition to the mark up phase. If it doesnt break back above 43.40, this could mean the china internet stocks are not yet ready for a reversal of trend and could still see a lower bottom.
中国股票触底了吗?
交易时一定要注意安全,投资时要睿智!
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