更新 III 四月22日

Hello Bears! Another good day for my NQ shorts and VIX longs!
But my commodities took a hit, heres why. As I mentioned in my update II that some (turns out all) had run too high and separated too far from their Moving Averages. They needed a sell down so that the MAs can "catch up" this is called consolidation, if you just bought it is painful (I went through it last year). So rather than me just yell 🗣 BUY COMMODITIES 🗣,  let me explain why this trade is still "young" (in baseball let's say it's the bottom of the 3rd inning top of the 5th at the latest) why it will still make tons of money and maybe important to some how it happened.
How it happened: simple covid (sure there were signs this was due *the charts dont lie and predicted it coming, weird right*) but covid caused it. When the world shut down for covid (the mines closed, the production/refiners shut down, the ports and sources of transportation slowed or stopped) the materials needed for production/growth were used up and no new materials replaced them. (this works for all commodities, example fertilizer, the farmers used all the fertilizer available, but when the new season started there wasn't any more fertilizer the miners didnt mine it, and what they had didnt ship or shipped slowly and was used up, so now that everything has started again the farmers still need fertilizer but the miners cant mine fast enough to meet demand (miners stopped mining potash but farmers didnt stop using it) and the processors cant process it fast enough to meet demand and cant get enough supply to process. This entire mess causes prices to climb. (The farmer who needs fertilizer and can pay the most will pay the most, those who can't pay dont grow enough crops. the real world is harsh.) But this isn't sympathy this is money. And if you have commodities you have money.
Why is this early- I could give you the "super cycle" wave theory but then I'm explaining even more technicals. This is early because it was just recognized. This was not a top, it is a breather.