Minsky moment ahead? More economists are warning about the possibility
Fueled by a rally in technology stocks, the U.S. stock market has experienced an impressive surge in 2023. Amidst a chorus of "cheers," growing concerns about a valuation bubble and high debt levels have led more economists to warn of a possible Minsky moment.
JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic has warned as early as March that bank failures, market turbulence, and ongoing economic uncertainty amidst central banks' efforts to combat high inflation have heightened the likelihood of a Minsky moment.
Ludovic Subran of Allianz: "We have all the ingredients of a so-called Minsky moment."
James Montier at GMO's asset allocation team noted that most markets appear to carry the fingerprints of a "slow burn Minsky moments" today.
What is a Minsky moment?
A Minsky moment, named after economist Hyman Minsky, refers to a sudden and significant drop in asset prices after prolonged growth and speculative investing. In prosperous periods, investors often become overly optimistic, take on excessive risk and accumulate debt, creating a bubble in asset prices. Once the bubble bursts, it can trigger a swift and severe decline in asset values, potentially leading to financial instability or even a crisis.
Minsky's theory has been proven time and time again, including the rapid sell-off of technology stocks after the dot-com bubble and the collapse of real estate prices during the global financial crisis of 2008.
James Montier coined the term "slow burn Minsky moments" in his latest research. He suspects the rolling financial crisis is due to a massive build-up of private sector debt, with very high rates of credit growth and leading to a credit bubble. In other cases, these build-ups remain dormant and unnoticed until a crisis, when they suddenly act as amplifiers, leading to a sharper downturn than would otherwise be the case, the so-called "slow-burn Minsky moments.
What are the signs that a Minsky moment may be on the way?
Currently, our markets possess many of the characteristics of a Minsky moment, as well as an array of simmering risks that have the potential to trigger a crisis at any moment.
1. A remarkable surge in both stock price and investor sentiment
The U.S. stock market delivered an impressive performance in the first half of this year, with all three major indexes experiencing a sharp rebound that surpassed the expectations of numerous analysts and investors. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted towards technology companies, registered its strongest first-half performance in four decades, surging by 31.7%. As big tech and meme stocks continue to rise, some analysts have detected a faint scent of a potential Minsky moment.
2. Rising leverage and borrowing by investors and institutions
As James Montier said, "Credit creation plays a major role in the development of a bubble."
Overheated markets are usually accompanied by a significant accumulation of private-sector debt and excessive credit growth. However, when asset prices become uncoupled from underlying fundamentals or investor confidence wanes, borrowers may struggle to repay their debts, triggering profit-taking and a chain reaction of panic selling that drives down asset values.
According to Richard Vague, a ratio of private sector debt to GDP in excess of 150% is an important threshold. James Montier's latest research showed that the U.S. has been operating at or above this level for the past 20 years.
3. Market bubbles may be forming
More and more economists are discussing concerns about a tech stock bubble. According to Game of Trades, Tech stocks are trading at their highest valuations since the financial crisis, with a forward P/E relative to the S&P 500 index of 1.4 times, second only to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.
"The tech sector is officially in a bubble," Citi said.
4. Excessive risk-taking without adequate attention to risk management
Risky investment behavior and ignoring risk management practices are also characteristics of the Minsky moment. According to Cboe Global Markets data, the current put-call ratio has fallen to its lowest level since January 2022, showing that investors are less fearful of the market and let their guard down.
5. Tightening of loan terms and other forms of credit
As Allianz's Subran highlighted in May, fading liquidity across the economy as banks tighten their lending terms is another sign that the Minsky moment could be coming.
"Everybody's problem now is the very abrupt tightening, but then there is an additional layer of wrong risk management" he further noted the potential problems with non-bank lenders' commercial real estate loans that aren't subjected to the same regulations as banks.
6. Issues affecting investor sentiment and confidence remain numerous
While investor sentiment remains optimistic and enthusiastic, it is crucial to recognize that confidence-dampening risks remain prevalent in today's markets, which could trigger profit-taking and capital outflows. These risks include macroeconomic downside risk, the potential for corporate earnings to fall short of expectations, and weaknesses within the financial sector, which have already been reflected in previous banking crises.
Source: Bloomberg, Fortune, yahoo finance, Game of Trades
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RAF Trader 108 : 世界主要经济体是否受到明斯克时刻的影响?如果是这样,下一双鞋什么时候会掉下来?在如此不可预测的衰退经济条件下,小投资者应该如何处理这个问题?如前所述,美国已经运营了20多年,私募股权与GDP的比率超过150%,这是可持续的经济情景吗?此外,环境影响和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰及其对食物、能源和乌克兰重建的全球影响尚未包括在外观中!欢迎大家为保护地球安全和人类繁荣而提供投入!
SPACELIGHT : 同意。明斯基的时刻指出了常识。
73097483 : slow burneexa 在 neoslotsas 之下
73097483 : 谢谢蒙特罗
reserved Moose_9085 : 简历
Mr Travis : 我同意。必须有东西爆裂。
Khost2020 : 大银行一直试图向小投资者灌输恐惧,以利用熊市并鼓励在看涨时期卖出。当市场表现良好时,这些分析师往往会提倡看涨情绪,目的是鼓励买入以最大限度地提高自己的利润。尽管房地产市场资产可能会下降,但不太可能与2008年的情况相似。
DzDivz : 听起来像是观察获利回吐、注意止损等的充分理由...
Stock Watch : 他们从 2020 年起就警告过
Always Hungryy : 哪些板块在明斯基和修正中蓬勃发展?他们都没有?