2024年中期展望 | 华尔街对美股的预测在宏观经济格局动荡中

Despite recent data presenting a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, optimism appears to be on the rise regarding its trajectory. A new survey of academic economists has indicated growing confidence in the possibility of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. The findings of the poll reveal that 52 percent of participants now expect a recession to be deferred until 2026 or later—a notable increase from the 46 percent who held this view in March.

The operational performance of businesses deserves attention as it can provide indirect verification of economic trends. Analysts on Wall Street forecast an above-average earnings per share (EPS) growth of 11.2% for 2024 and 12.7% for 2025. J.P. Morgan posits that "A more inclusive market rally can be fueled by still respectable nominal GDP growth in the U.S. and a better balance between real growth and inflation."