盈利波动性 | 随着季报季进入高潮，期权市场为波动性做准备

According to the options market, Tesla is currently facing an implied move of ±9.7%, suggesting that options traders are betting on a post-earnings one-day price swing of up to 9.7%. This points to a slight undervaluation of options prices. Historical analysis shows that in the past 12 earnings releases, Tesla's stock more frequently experienced declines post-earnings, with the last four quarters showing declines of -9.8%, -9.7%, -9.3%, and -12.1%, respectively.

For Tesla, the options market is painting a picture of investor caution; puts expiring this week are marked by higher implied volatility, reflecting a bearish sentiment as evidenced by the volatility skew. Amidst this wary outlook, there's noteworthy activity on Tesla's options chain: puts at the $140 strike price and calls at strike prices of $155 and $150 expiring this Friday are seeing a surge in trading volume, signaling a mix of hedging and speculative plays as traders position themselves ahead of the earnings announcement.

Tesla's stock has fallen over 40% since the beginning of the year, impacted by Q1 deliveries that are vastly missing expectations and layoffs. Earlier this month, Tesla announced Q1 deliveries of 386,800 vehicles worldwide, significantly below forecasts and marking the first quarter-over-quarter decline since 2020.

Investors will be looking to hear from Elon Musk during the earnings call for reasons behind cost-cutting measures, future strategies, product roadmaps, and overall vision to weather the potential storm of weakening global demand in 2024, as per Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush.