Market timing: Moving beyond following trends to start catching opportunities
Why is market timing important?
One can only time the market using technical analysis (TA). TA can be used to identify resistances and supports for swing tops and swing bottoms. Market timing can maximise profits and minimise losses.
TA is not 100% accurate, so you should have a stop loss strategy in place. If the price dropped by 10% from your buy price, you should sell and cut your loss. Conversely, buy at 10% above your sell price if you short sell a stock. You may change it to 15% for more volatile U.S. and Hong Kong markets.
There will be opportunities for you to buy at a better price or buy a better stock later.
Xpeng
In Oct 2023, $小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$ fell to 13.22 near its strong support of 13.10 and near its MA200. Being above the MA200 indicates long term bullishness. This is a good buy point. Indeed, the trend reversed to up and moved above the MA5. Then it crossed above the MA20. The price surged and broke out of the falling wedge pattern. The MA5 is about to cross above the MA100 which will indicate more bullishness. It may rise to resistances around 19.96 and 23.62.
IFast
$奕丰集团 (AIY.SG)$ shares started rising in Dec 2020 from SGD2.44 and surged to SGD10 in Sep 2021. If you wanted to buy in May 2021, look at the chart first. You could see that the price already surged a lot, that's a danger sign that the trend may reverse down soon. The price was also in an uptrend, but there was rsi divergence with the rsi in a downtrend. This indicated that buying was waning and the price may drop soon. That was the second danger sign. Indeed, it formed a bearish double top pattern and reversed down in Oct 2021.
The FA guy would have bought at SGD7.80 because the target price or fair value was SGD14. For him, it was undervalued and he doesn't look at charts.
For the TA guy, he could have stayed out until the double top pattern was formed or bought and sold at the formation of the pattern. He could have sold the shares short at SGD10 and bought back the shares at the swing bottom in Oct 2022 at SGD3.50.
Seatrium
$海庭 (S51.SG)$ shares formed a bearish double top pattern with peaks at SGD0.147 in Jul 2023 and Aug 2023. The TA guy could have sold the shares short at 0.147 at the second peak. Then the MA5 crossed below the MA20. The price fell below the neckline of the double top which confirmed the pattern. It remained below the MA20 since then and fell below the M200. These are bearish signs. The price rebounded to 0.13 from the support near 0.123, but got rejected at the MA200 and fell back.
It is approaching the supports around 0.105, 0.102 and 0.101. It may be good for the TA guy to start buying the shares back for a trend reversal soon.
免责声明：社区由Moomoo Technologies Inc.提供，仅用于教育目的。
更多信息
评论
登录发表评论
Moo圈贡献者
Follow me to get useful analysis, learn TA and make profitable trades.
Maximise profit 利润最大化
8239粉丝
48关注
2.7万来访
关注
TestLa Kopi : 第一句话已经错了...
Fungicide : 后见之明是 20/20
bullrider_21 楼主 TestLa Kopi : 你能用 FA 把握市场时机吗？
bullrider_21 楼主 : 图案总是会重复。模式形成后，助理人员可能会预测可能发生的事情。
TestLa Kopi : TA 始终是被动的，而不是预测性的。如果你能预测接下来会发生什么，你就不会参与这些聊天。
要做出精心计算的猜测，你需要将宏观、财务和TA这三个因素放在一起考虑，绝不能只考虑任何一个因素。永远记住这一点。
bullrider_21 楼主 TestLa Kopi : 我不会单独使用 TA。在宏观和微观层面，我将TA与基本面分析结合使用。但是 FA 不能用来把握市场时机，只有 TA 可以。TA 不是反应性的，而是预测性的。它使用过去的数据来预测未来的价格。过去的数据反映了人类的情感。人类的情感几乎保持不变。
bullrider_21 楼主 TestLa Kopi : TA 具有很高的准确性。当然不是 100%。没有什么是完美的。
TestLa Kopi : 感谢您的澄清，这与您最初发布的关于单独使用 TA 的内容不同。
“人们只能使用技术分析（TA）来计算市场时机”
你在教错误的东西。您只使用了 “仅”。仅使用TA来安排市场时机可能自杀。这就是为什么我必须打电话给你，警告其他人。
TA 是反应性的，不是预测性的。TA告诉我们发生了什么，可以而且应该作为在DYODD之后采取行动的参考。但绝不能用来预测和/或把握市场。
bullrider_21 楼主 TestLa Kopi : “人们只能使用技术分析（TA）来计时市场”。这是真的。请告诉我你能否使用FA或其他方法把握市场时机。你相信 TA 吗？那些不相信 TA 的人会说它是被动的。我已经使用 TA 来预测价格走势。我的追随者已经看到，达到很高的准确度是可能的。
TestLa Kopi : 祝你和你的粉丝好运。
查看更多评论...